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Happy Bank Holiday, not sure if this is the area of the site I can start of thread, if it requires moving please do so. I got into racing after visiting p2p meetings at Bartlemy County Cork, and learnt a lot about pedigrees, sires which is something really much interests me, as for the flat my first meeting was actually at Saint-Cloud in France.
I was reading some posts on twitter after City of Troy salting the horse, for the love of the sport this horses pedigree screams 10f-12f, sired by the triple crown winner Justify, damsire Galileo so if anyone has backed him ante post to take the Derby, still hold on to those tickets as I would think he will be better going round left handed and will enjoy the undulations of Epsom.
On to this afternoon and some more classic racing to have a strong look at and the 1000gns takes centre stage, Karl Burke has probably has his yard in the form of its life and the addition of Clifford Lee as your main jockey is an even more plus in my opinion. In my opinion Clipper Logistics should maybe obtain his services which for me would give Fallen Angel more of a realistic chance.
Danny Tudhope’s link to Clipper as their retained jockey is still strong and the question we all want to know will Fallen Angel get the trip. She is by Too Darn Hot who took the Dewhurst as a juvenile and never went the Guineas route bypassing to go to the Dante, but was runner up in the Irish 2000gns. He was a frustrating horse in training for John Gosden, but her pedigree speaks volume with being out of Dar Rei Me who again did not go the Guineas route and improved when she stepped up in to middle distances landing Yorkshire Oaks and a Dubai classic, this is were we are expecting where her stamina will eventually come into play.
Both sire and damsire of Dar Re Me was Dubawi and Singspiel who were, the former was an Irish 2000gns winner, the latter did not come to age until around 4-5 when winning the Coronation Cup so if they have penciled in that race or the Oaks then she should be improving, but for now Fallen Angel will have to show how good she is over the mile on a course that has not been that kind to the pedigree.
The Nell Gwyn was far to short for Dance Sequence and she really struggle to get the pace of the race, she has no excuses this afternoon now stepping up to a mile, by Dubawi out of an All Weather dam called Tearless, She was to race no more, but she was another that I thought would of got 10f being by Street Cry, quick ground comes into her favour this afternoon. Ylang Ylang had a busy juvenile campaign and after the defeat of City of Troy in the 2000gns you would like to think the O’Brien runner needs to put the stamp on this race,
Over the past few years the domination on the flat in classics has seen the boys in blue really get horses ready, so how far are the Irish actually behind in this sphere, they are already world class around the National Hunt with the likes of Willie Mullins, what an achievement by the way to take the trainer’s Championship on British soil must of really put the cat among the pigeons. Off the beaten track there, back to Ylang Ylang who is sired by 2000gns winner Frankel, the damsire Shambolic never trained on as a three year old with her best run being placed in the Listed Fashion Stakes, but its all about stamina i think at Newmarket and she had plenty of it. the damsire Shamardal won the Dewhurst who also landed the St James’s Palace.
Ylang Ylang has been entered in a lot of black type races this season, do I feel she would be good enough to win a Oaks in June, probably on pedigree it would stretch her a bit, Pretty Polly Stakes maybe at The Curragh could be her spotlight race this season. We have a French raider in the race in Ramatuelle who once more brings the triple crown pedigree to the table in Justify. She took the Imprudence Stakes on the All Weather at Daeuville and she is probably a watch and learn more about her this afternoon.
The dam was Raven’s Lady who won both her of her starts at Newmarket as a three year old, she was probably one of those disappointing horses when so much was expected of her and never got her chance to compete at Group 1 level and finished her career off in America under James Cassidy, she was more speed than a stayer, damsire Raven’s Pass was placed in a Dewhurst and it was not until the end of his career he landed his Group 1 when winning the Breeders Cup Classic.
Clifford Lee has picked up a ride though in this race on stablemate Darnation, she is another by Too Darn Hot out of an unrace mare, but she has that Galileo pedigree in her genes so I would like to see her over a bit further than this. Personally its not a bad classic and we see if once more the fillies are more forward, we should be looking for entries that have ran the Rowley Mile.
FALLEN ANGEL – Won July Course
DANCE SEQUENCE – Won RM (7F) Runner Up RM over the (8f)
SET THE FIRE – 3rd RM CD
YLANG YLANG – Won RM CD ****
PORTA FORTUNA – Won RM (6f)This could be a match up between Godolphin’s Dance Sequence and Irelnad’s hope Ylang Ylang, the former won soft ground and I would feel this could find her out this quicker surface, so I am going to give this to the boys in blue and DANCE SEQUENCE. They already took the 2000gns with Notable Speech who looked smart, Dance Sequence is the choice of William Buick and it would be a surprise to see her outside the first three here, Ylang Ylang with all her entries for the season I will be watching her closely also in this race.
Both entries are currently 7/1, which in a 16 runner race are worthy of an each way on both.
As for the rest of the Newmarket Card…..
13.50 see’s the inform Andrew Balding yard sending their CD winning filly Kalpana – the sire Study of Man failed to train on as a three year old with stats of 0-7, so we have to go on her mothers side Zero Gravity who won three from five starts from 9.5f to 12f warrants respect on that alone. Charlie Appleby is looking to get off the mark early doors tis afternoon and should serve it up to the short price favourite. By Galileo however the damsire failed to win above 8f.
So I would look for a bit of value from the Kempton winner FRIENDLY SOUL who looked that this step up in trip is just what she is looking for, she is by the prolific miler Kingman out of 10f winning dam In Clover, she really finished off her race well at Kempton, should be observed and the confidence in the market with her.
The 14.25 Dahlia Stakes again I this time I have opted for Pam Sly’s ASTRAL BEAU who finished runner up to the Charyn in the Doncaster Mile, being caught in the dying strides. the mare is gutsy individual and will not go down without a fight, she could be the dark horse in the race.
Best of Luck today
I was actually taken with that run, she really picked up well even when she hit the rising ground and the favourite was on her quarters she kicked again, both clear of the field. 10/1 bigger price than expected
That was enlightening 1000gns, great ride by De Sousa to win the race, Ylang Ylang ran well, but Dance Sequence I am not concerned about as I feel when he steps up to 1of he show his true potential
Good Morning
Early hours and on the night shift so I thought why i have an hour of peace to grab a glance at the Chester Card. This is a course I have always wanted to visit and never got round too.
First race and not an easy one to really find the winner, you could make a case for several, Oisin Murphy takes the ride on Hugo Palmer’s ROMAN DRAGON who is no stranger to Chester with six recorded wins over 6f at the course, the benefit he stays further than 5f and has got the ultimate seat in stall 1 could make him an appealing each way.
Looking over the guineas the colts looked more forward than the fillies this year and the second race is a maiden that i would liked to see Brian Meehan’s RASHABAR get his head in front. I think his debut run at Newbury was solid enough to suggest he would come on again for the run, eye-catching booking of Sean Levey. One that could out run her odds is Tom Dascombe’s BIDDABLE who was not disgraced at Bath on debut, she is a big double figure price around 50/1, even nt placed in this she has some potential.
The Dee Stakes and would like to think Hugo Palmer can have a double on the second day with Jayarebe who looked smart when he went away from his field in fine style, this is a lot tougher and contends a new trip. Bracken’s Laugh and CAPULET will meet off the same terms and the latter was probably unlucky when bumped around, now steps up in trip and being by the triple crown winner Justify I would be expecting a lot more.
GODS WINDOW has already tasted black type company when third in the Futurity Stakes, the runner up has franked that form, thrashed two rivals at Nottingham impressively and has some useful entries this season.
I actually had a look at this race yesterday and thought John Gosden’s ARREST could be far too good for this field. His opening tun of the season was disappointing when running all over the track and had no idea where he actually wanted to be, went off far too quickly and tamely dropped away. I feel stepping up in trip will see him as a possible contender this year for the Yorkshire Cup in 2 weeks time at York.
Away form the flat I have been following Emma Lavelle’s MISTRAL MILLIE who has been improving since dropping into Class 4 company, she was given a bit too much to do at Hereford last time. this drop back in trip could just pay to her strengths.
Just a recap on today really
Rashabar had it all to do from a poor draw, and did well to get as close as he did having to come around the houses which seemed to be one of those days for that, Arrest was badly positioned I thought by Mr Shoemark and he was not hard on him and ran his race, would he of beaten the winner, i think he would of been closer.
Capulet is an exciting type as City of Troy both sired by a triple crown winner Justify, worth watching these two develope as the season progresses. Gods Window was first off the bride and what a big run by the second Brackens Laugh, could return here in the season and land a nice prize.
Sadly the NH horse bombed out, maybe needs stepping back up in distance, as looked uncomfortable a long way from home.
Day three of the Boodles meeting and straight into the first race where I do like the improving LIAMARTY DREAMS who has the two box to hug the rails and pounce under the inform Clifford Lee. they had a nice winner on the second day with Teej A.
Lee and Nurke could have a quick fire double with BOLSTER who showed a good turn of foot when winning at Pontefract, that form got franked with the fourth Baryshnokov when well last week. Israr looked once pace when only managing third in the Gordon Richards at Sandown, he have to prove that his trained on again at the age of 5.
Sir Michael Stoute’s PASSENGER looked smart enough when landing the Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor, makes his seasonal debut this afternoon and this race is there for the taking. Interesting no Ryan Moore to ride the stables Hans Anderson, this will be the steering job of William Buick, his mount will have to step up again on this quicker ground.
The Chester Cup and my each way money will be on GRAND PROVIDENCE. He would not have to improve much to be involved here after his good run when finishing third at Newbury, the winner of that race Prince Alex runs in the Chester Plate the next race after this.
Grand Providence (She) i am having serious problems getting the spelling correct of the sex of the horse my apologies.
Derby and Oak trials this weekend at Lingfield, John Gosden’s filly Danielle is on show here, she has an entry at Epsom. She won by twelve lengths on turf debut at Wetherby and the daughter of Cracksman personally for me she will have to step up in my opinion if she is going to impress in this trial. Her mother failed when stepped up in trip on the all weather, but was a 12f winner on turf on quick ground.
If we are going to take her on Rubies are Red brings the sire Galileo to the flaw – the mare Red Evie never ran beyond a mile as a three year old, however only lost once in that time, won the Lockinge and Hungerford Stakes as a four year old, so stamina and speed is there is adapting to the all weather.
The fact that DANIELLE is coming the route of the Wetherby Novices Stakes race which has produced two of the past three winners of this race is probably significant enough. Next we have the Derby trial, a race that will not usually turn up the Derby winner come June, only one i can remember was Anthony Van Dyke. Aidan O’Brien has landed this on six occasions with twice in the past five years which included a Derby winner.
This time around Illinois steps up and the son of Galileo needs to show more I think after some disappointing runs, its a typical story that most Ballydoyle transition horses the form goes on their juvenile career, he managed to finished placed in the Criterium in France, but was beaten by stablemate Euphrates in the Ballysax.
Both of the O’Brien horses was not that electric, but now on quicker ground we might see both perform differently. I am a big fan of Roger Varian and it was great to see him pick up a classic last weekend and hopefully the form improves with DEFINACE. Son of the almost triple crown sire Camelot who was just defied in the St Leger, has all the credentials to lead into his fathers footsteps.
Was given a fair amount to do by James Doyle that day, however he has an engine and has already shown his ability at Epsom so will not find issues coming back in June. His definitely my main bet of the day.
I am so glad i just observed this afternoon watching form the comforts of home. I am not surprised at all that Ylang Ylang failed miserably in the Oaks, Dance Sequence has improved again though and thought maybe she was going to get home, wandered around considerably over that last half a furlong.
The race goes to Ireland, but not the stable that was suspected, nice though to see Aga Khan once more tasting classic glory in his colours. So on to Derby day, probably once more a cautious one.
The quick turnaround for Peter Chapple-Hyam’s BLAKE I think he will have to much in the locker for what looks a really weak handicap. The step up to 10f should be beneficial with this unexposed three year old.
RUNNING LION drops back to 8.5f, she looked in need of the full 10f when landing the Pretty Polly as a three year old, the Dahlia Stakes run when not getting home over the 9f, this was on a straight track, could be better going left handed I think, is a player just the drop in trip a concern.
Royal Dress put in a shock performance when landing the Listed William Hill Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes and had Breege a length back in third off level weights. They will meet off the same terms and this time around I would like to think them tables can be reversed. George Boughey’s Chic Colombine drops back in class after bombing out in the French 1000gnS.
Sir Michael Stoute’s REGAL REALITY is surely even at the age of nine capable enough of landing this, last year’s winner beat Highland Avenue to three parts of a length, he will get 3lb this time around and should hold that form. Next is the three year old dash.
I am going to side with MASHADI in this for Amo Racing, beaten a neck last time over 6f at Ascot,not overly convinced that David Egan is the right pilot so it be an each way bet for small stakes. On to the Epsom Dash, portrayed as the fastest sprint in the world. A race i tend to overlook are horses coming into this on a penalty which would rule out Clarendon House.
With Karl Burke’s sprinters in superb form it would criminal to not see SILKIE WILKIE going close at the business end this afternoon. Second one in the race i like is DREAM COMPOSER who should get plenty of cover from stall 7 and be in the mix also.
The market around City of Troy currently is misleading, drifted out to 7/2 last night to be backed again over this early hours into 9/4, another negative is the dreaded stall 1 which has seen limited winners. I am going to have a look at the trends that are relevant more for this race.
Ancient Wisdom
Dallas Star
Los AngelesBased on the trends the winner should be coming from one of the three above…..
Ancient Wisdom finished off the season last year better than ever when landing the Autumn & Futurity Stakes, he had a few of these beaten in Deira Mile, Gods Window and Dancing Gemini. The Dante has seen only one winner in the past 10yrs which was Golden Horn with the only other runner being Desert Crown who bypassed the Derby, so in theory the stats is 1-1.
Sadly with the loss of Hidden Law who won the Chester vase this years Derby does not have a lot of depth on the ability that are coming form solid trends, the Lingfield trials Anthony Van Dyck went on to Derby glory and i am seriously surprised that Illinois has not taken his chances here after finishing behind Ambiently Friendly at Lingfied, Adayar who won the 2023 renewal of the trial also bypassed the Derby so once more 1-1 from the stats.
After watching yesterday the ground looked tacky and the rain has likely got into the ground, no electric times here so we have to bet based on trust that some of the main entries are going to handle the conditions and one horse we know can do that is CITY OF TROY.
All the pundits are swerving the hotpot here purely based on running in a straight mile that was ridden at a blistering pace, he ran over a mile, he flopped in the Guinea. Yeah solid three negatives and the way Ylang Ylang ran in the Oaks even Ryan Moore said she will get better as the season goes on, is the same that we are expecting, an 80% fit City of Troy.
Ambiently Friendly and Ancient Wisdom are strong adversaries to the favourite, Godolphin have to be respected and if the value is in this race it has to be ANCIENT WISDOM, the fact that they have not run scared and entered him is another positive, only thing putting me off with Ambiently Friendly is that the winners of the trial in Anthony Van Dyck and Desert Crown were both black type winners prior where he would have to improve a lot to land this on paper being only a Listed winner, however we have seen a maiden winner in Serpentine over the past decade, and who else but Aiden O’Brien can accomplish that.
My prediction is that both Ambiently Friendly and Ancient Wisdom will try and take the sting out of the race and kick on early into the bend for home, try and see if CITY OF TROY can get the trip in the ground, I think he will come home strongly and being by triple crown winner Justify I would like to think this is going to be a masterclass ride by Ryan Moore.
CITY OF TROY : 2pt win @ 11/4
Hard day yesterday, however Dream Composer and City of Troy turned the day around, what a masterclass ride by Ryan Moore, some might not like the way he rides but he is still a class jockey.
Today we see some superb racing taking place from Chantilly including the French Derby, so we have a look at starting point the Group 2 Prix du Gros-Chene and quite a few of these come into this after battling the Group 3 Prix de St-Georges at Longchamp.
PONNTOS came out on top that day with Mgheera, Lesslepasser and Vicious Harry all in behind. Ponntos has come into this without a Group penalty and has to be given the upmost respect, however he has failed at this level on four other occasions. Lesselpasser reversed his defeat from the Cor De Chasse Listed Stakes with Vicious Harry quite significantly to the level of seven lengths turnaround, that form should be sustained. At the weights you would feel that Ponntos could still be improving, Barzalona in the plate.
On to the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly, despite only one British/Irish winner in the past decade it is hard to even have a look at any travellers winning this, however Karl Burke’s AL QAREEM Bombed out in the Group 2 Boodles Yorkshire Cup Stakes over two furlongs further and dropping back to the 12f index I feel he has a real chance of winning this under Clifford Lee.
On to the feature the Group 1 Qatar Prix du Jockey Club and it would the icing on the cake if Ryan Moore could ride a double derby in two days when he partner’s Diego Velazquez. A good look at the French 2000gns where the last mentioned finished fourth and Alcantor in third. Both deserve the respect now stepping up in trip, and do like ALCANTOR to come on again being sired by New Bay, Diego Velazquez gets the Frankel genes, but might just find this race a touch above his class.
The Group 3 Prix Greffulhe is a solid trial for this race and Sunway was just touched of to a neck and will be looking for compensation. He took the scalp of Alcantor in last years Group 1 Criterium International, but again the latter has shown more on seasonal reappearance. The horse they all have to beat is FAST TRACKER he could not be more impressive when landing the Listed De Suresnes Listed Stakes by seven lengths, an unexposed son of Churchill and deserves to be one of the principle players here.
Another race over the 12f trip here at Chantilly is the Group 3 Prix de Royaumont for fillies. Andre Fabre tends to have one ready for this and sadly this year nothing, so this would make me side with Nicolas Clements AMOR A MANI who took a step forward when landing the Prix Robert Lavallee Maiden Stakes, its not turning out to be a decent maiden, however the trainer has won this in the past.
CHANTILLY
13.40 : Ponntos (1.5pt Win @ 5/2)
14.20 : Al Qareem (1pt each way @ 7/1)
15.05 : FAST TRACKER (3pt win @ 7/2 NAP) / Alcantor (1pt each way @ 11/1 4 places)
15.50 : Amor A Mani (1pt each way @ 16/1)Thanks for your detailed post JamesScudamore
French racing is something i tend to blank because my speed ratings behave weirdly.
However, Maxime Guyon, Mickael Barzalona etc.. “whats not to like”School me (does no bookmakers in France make a DIFFERENCE?)
D21
James is just fine thanks, nice start with Ponntos who looked the class act without that Group penalty
it happens far to often, the original jockey gets shipped off Fast Tracker in Piccone and they bring in James Doyle who is a good enough Jockey, but I just feel never change a rider. The tactics front the front at Chantilly is to much and has been a negative over middle distances in the past, I just wish British jockeys study more when riding on the continent.
Good Afternoon all
How has your Royal Ascot been going, i decided to miss the midweek races at the meeting to just observe for the rest of the season, Kyprios proved he is a real champion, so flops i saw in Notable Speech and Diamond Rain for the boys in blue, and for me the best ride of the week surely was Ryan Moore on Fairy Godmother, i see a lot of idiotic critics on twitter giving Ryan Moore a hard time on the ride, and to say she got him out of trouble, she probably did but lets not forget who was doing the steering, he still had to get her there, masterclass ride.
I feel both Inisherin and Port Fortuna could be in for a good season, both came to conquer and did the job well, two nice horses in training, So the last day of the Royal meeting, the bookies have looked to of been battered on the main races, and have clawed some back on the handicaps, so lets see if I can steal a few pennies.
I do feel the bookies will be running for cover again after the Chesham Stakes when the formidable team up with BEDTIME STORY, her win at Leopardstown i thought was impressive and with the form boosted i like her breeding by Frankel out of the speedy mare Mecca Angel.
The Hardwick Stakes and my two against the field here is CRYPTO FORCE and ELEGANT MAN who both looked overpriced, in order they finished third and fourth respectively that day and with both the winner and runner Auguste Rodin franking the form-line, at 66/1 & 16/1 i would like to play these both each way in what looks an average looking Hardwicke renewal.
Duke of York stakes looks the key form here, Art Power, Mill Stream, Shouldbebeenaring, Mitbaahy and Washington Heights this is where i feel the winner will come from this group. ART POWER went on to run a creditable fourth to Mitbaahy in the Greenlands Stakes another race that has turned out winners of this renewal, and the form line once more really strong through the runner up Regional who only found Asfoora too good in the King Charles 111 stakes here this week.
The draw is going to be the most significant as over yesterdays sprints and infact most of the week its been between stall 5 out to stall 11, draws below…
ART POWER (7)
MILL STREAM (8)
MITBAAHY (1) X
SHOULDVEBEENARING (11)
WASHINGTON HEIGHTS (10)As you can see apart from Mitbaahy who looks really boxed out of it in stall 1 which we have not seen being achieved in 20 years. Interesting all those that were beaten in the Duke of York Stakes have done well on their next run, ART POWER had to concede 5lb to all his adversaries that day at York and I would not right off the seven year old off level weights he looks the value for me in the race and this could be another big win for northern trainers in the sprints
The Jersey Stakes we should be looking at Irish and English Guineas form, all Irish 2000 Guineas runners were beaten before coming here and this would bring us to HAATEM and RIVER TIBER into the equation. Second and third respectively, that form took a massive boost when Rosallion won the St James’s Palace Stakes this week. Richard Hannon’s will have to concede 3lb to River Tiber this time around, equivalent to around a length I still feel HAATEM is less exposed at this level and should hold that form and get his just deserve after two big runs in classics.
Oh my the Wokingham, probably one of the worst handicaps to decipher, well for me anyhow. Once more with 7 places being paid with the wonderful Skybet i will pick two against the field, my first one is LETHAL LEVI who landed a nice handicap at York last time out and FIVETHOUSANDTOONE who bombed out in the Duke of York Stakes and despite finishing midfield has to be respected with Oisin Murphy in the plate.
This will be only the fifth running of the Golden Gate Stakes, Tom Marquand notched his first Royal Ascot winner week and rides Approval who got off the mark at the fourth attempt under today’s pilot. a solid 7lb rise, however could run well again. Hand of God had to dig deep at Sandown to win by a neck, should be more suited by this step up in trip. Dambuster and Miletus both won their respective races last time but for me my money will be on Richard Hughes’s PALACE QUEEN.
He won nicely on the all weather at Kempton and handled himself well when finishing third on his handicap debut in a competitive handicap at York, his current mark of 90 on only his second handicap start i feel he has a big run in him this afternoon.
Last but not least the longest race of the week the Queen Alexandra Stakes, 22f contest we see a serious very interesting booking of Maxim Guyon on RUN FOR OSCAR, third in this last year behind Dawn Rising off level weights and will get a significant 3lb, he could of been a lot closer if not blocked in running.
SELECTIONS
14.30 : BEDTIME STORY (3pt win @ 6/4 NAP) – Wow 9.5 Lengths
15.05 : Elegant Man (0.5pt each way @ 20/1) – too much this time around
15.45 : Art Power (1pt each way @ 10/1 – 5 places) – disappointed not at least placed
16.25 : HAATEM (2pt win @ 5/1 NB) -What a race that was – under that penalty boom
17.05 : Fivethousandtoone & Lethal Levi (0.5pt each way on both @ 14/1 & 25/1 8 places) – Lethal Levi once more running creditable top 4 finish @ 28/1
17.40 : Palace Queen (1pt each way @ 10/1 – 4 places) You do not see many poor rides by Oisin Murphy but that was probably one of his worst judged rides this week, would of been a lor closer
18.15 : RUN FOR OSCAR (2pt win @ 9/4 NNB)
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