James Scudamore

[JamesScudamore]

Good Morning

Can you believe we are almost 6 months into this year, where has the time gone. However still plenty of great racing to throw those pennies at and take the stress of the Euro’s performances away from your mind. Today the highlight on home soil is the Northumberland Plate in Newcastle not to far from my humble abode in the North East.

I will be attending this afternoon, great atmosphere during the day with a good night out in the toon as they say up here to round the night off. so lets have a look at the cards which will also include the Curragh and HQ.

so kicking off with a tricky Class 2 handicap at Gosforth Park and I would like to think Andrew Balding’s KINGS LYNN has the credentials to be on the premises. He does look extremely exposed and has not got his head in front for over two years when winning the Group 2 Temple Stakes. Ha slumped to a winnable mark of just 92 and even though now turning seven lets hope something still in the tank, ran well over CD two runs back finishing third.

On to the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes (14.04 Newcastle) and Kinross would be the correct selection here off the back of Group wins in the past, however this is a messy race and he would have to come over the top from stall 3 to land the spoils no easy task at Newcastle. His record on the all weather is 2 runs and 1 win which came at Kempton, was a beaten fav here at the course over a mile.

So there are alternatives, both Albasheer and Fivethousandtoone have far too much weight for me to consider them to win this contest and both bombed out in the Wokingham last time a race that has not been kind coming into this, and the fact we have only seen only one double figure price in the past eight renewals its probably a miss race and watch, but I am, going to have a small punt on Ed Walker’s POPMASTER.

His a right price around 16/1 and does bring solid all weather form to the table, you never know which one of his character is going to turn up, but if getting a good ride into the race and should get that under the new sensation Billy Loughnane i give him a squeak, would not put you off RAMAZAN also for Fahey each way.

The first visit to HQ is the 2.15 Empress Fillies Stakes and I was quite taken with Ralph Beckett’s TALES OF THE HEART who won nicely at Kempton, a race that has seen the third finish fourth to Bedtime Story in the Chesham as the did the fourth, she could be something for a yard that has won this race twice in the past four years. Karl Burke’s Teej A has landed a couple of nice handicaps and is still improving.

Back to Newcastle and the Northumberland Vase and if I was honest I would not know where t start, however if I had to put one forward it would be Tim Easterby’s MARBUZET who has only had one career run on the all weather and has had a few runner up runs to be considered.

Back to Newmarket and the Fred Archer Stakes and I am a big fan of Jim Crowley who has won on Crystal Delight on his past two runs and probably deserves a crack at this step up in class, however he might come up short against the Charlie Appleby pair and I do like the second string in KEMARI.

Despite having his first run of the season its not the hottest of renewals and I would like to see him run well again as he did last year when landing this race in good style. Back to the feature at Newcastle and the main race in the Northumberland Plate and I am in the GRAND PROVIDENCE camp here. The fact he bypassed Ascot after his solid effort in the Chester Cup when finishing fifth behind Zoffee, gets a strong pull at the weights.

Over to Newmarket for their feature the Group 3 Criterion Stakes and a tricky little race in which TIBER FLOW could follow up his John of Gaunt Stakes win and give Haggas his second win in the race and first since 2006, the horse has shown consistency and won the Chipchase Stakes last years Northumberland Plate meeting.

The final race on the ITV card comes at Newcastle a tricky handicap to decipher and I am on the fence with the top two in the weights here, GREYS MONUMENT returns to the all weather where he got his head in front at Kempton last December and the 3lb rise on that form might be tough to keep him out of the frame. Likely favourite Make Me King finished in the top ten in this years Buckingham Palace Stakes, was a winner on the all weather for Andre Fabre in France and cannot be discounted at this level.

Selections

Newcastle

13.35 – Kings Lynn (1pt each way @ 7/1) 2nd
14.04 – Popmaster (0.5pt each way @ 12/1) – Not disappointed
14.35 – Marbuzet (0.5pt each way @ 14/1) – Did not have a bet in the race in the end – Fav won well
15.10 – Grand Providence (1pt each way @ 9/1) – Disappointing
15.40 – Grey’s Monument (1pt each way @ 15/2) – finished place – chose the wrong one again

Newmarket
14.15 – Tales of The Heart (1pt win @ 9/2 NB) 2nd
14.50 – Kemari (0.5pt each way @ 14/1) – It does boil my piss using last years winner as a pacemaker
15.25 – TIBER FLOW (2.5pt win @ 7/2 NAP) NR

[JamesScudamore]

We also have some good races at The Curragh this weekend with the Pretty Polly Stakes being the highlight and tomorrow the Irish Derby. so my theory’s below.

We start off with the Airlie Stud Stakes (14.20), and I do like the Murray entry here in CALIFONIA DREAMER who finished fifth in what could turn out to be a hot Albany at the Royal meeting, the fact he stayed on from the back, was just outpaced in the early stages. You cannot overlook an Aiden O’Brien flop and TRULY ENCHANTING bombed out in the Queen Mary at Ascot and I would not be at all surprised to see a far better run here.

The 2.55 and the International Stakes and i am just against the O’Brien hotpot here and one at a big price is Ed O’Grady’s ECUREEUIL SECRET who ran a creditable third in the Gallinule Stakes staying on well in the closing stages.

The race of the day, The Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes and extremely interesting that this has been bombarded by British trainers and the Dahlia Stakes winner STAY ALERT has had her win well documented when the runner up Running Lion ran out a good winner of the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Ascot. She is the pay for me again.

CURRAGH
14.20 – California Dreamer (1pt win @ 11/2) 2nd – Chose the wrong one
14.55 – Ecureuil Secret (0.5pt each way @ 16/1) place money taken – but had nowhere to go on that rail
15.30 – Stay Alert (1pt each way @ 6/1)

[JamesScudamore]

Good Afternoon

It’s been warranted couple of weeks off watching the racing more than punting, some of the horses I thought would be worth following this season have been disappointing to say the least, I must say openly I have saved a canny load of pension money and with the racing getting better now with Glorious Goodwood and York Ebor on the horizon its exciting times, so lets have a look at Glorious Goodwood.

Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3)

I watched Ascot this afternoon and the race was lost at the start for Charlie Appleby’s DEVOTED QUEEN when she spread terribly on leaving the gates, she is better than that and if turning up here I feel she has to be given the upmost respect.

Molecomb Stakes (Group 3)

I was taken with AESTERIUS win in the Dragon Stakes at Sandown at the beginning of the month, the runner up has not really given that form-line any significant boost, however it was a good performance. another is Archie Watson’s VINGEGAARD who came out of the Windsor Castle Stakes to be beaten a neck in the Super Sprint at Haydock and has to be respected.

Qipco Sussex Stakes (Group 1)

The highlight on day one and all eyes will be on Richard Hannon’s superstar Rosallion who had to dig deep to land the St James’s Palace Stakes when fending off Henry Longfellow to a neck, he reversed the defeat in the 2000 guineas to Notable Speech and has kept that level of form and improved. However i am more drawn to the one that finished third in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in MALJOOM who was so unlucky to bump into traffic problems and had to come wide in which the race had already gone, one at a price for me.

DEVOTED QUEEN (1pt each way @ 10/1)
AESTERIUS (4pt win @ 9/4) – NAP – VINGEGAARD (1pt each way @ 13/2)
MALJOOM (1pt each way @ 16/1)

[JamesScudamore]

Well hopefully day two is as exciting as day one would of been i am sure.

Markel Richmond Stakes (Group 2)

My money will be on ELECTROLYTE, I am not concerned about his flop in the July Stakes on ground I think he struggled on from the minute he came out of the stalls. He would not have to improve much to be involved here if the ground comers up quicker, the Coventry second should be on the premises if the ground comes up dependant.

John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

I would like to think out of the entrants here the Derby contenders would be the strongest form, Andrew Balding saddles BELLUM JUSTUM who finished seventh at Epsom. Since then he has finished third in the Hampton Court Stakes and that form was slightly franked when the runner up King’s Bandit was just denied in the Group 2 York Stakes. just over five lengths in front that day was SAYEDATY SADATY who was one and a half lengths behind Irish Derby winner Los Angeles and again has not been seen since and will be more fresh.

Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1)

I am not convinced that this is the greatest of renewals, John Gosden’s Emily Upjohn has become so frustrating to follow from a winning prospective and has not got her head in-front since last June. the Pretty Polly form again is suspect, Bluestocking was beaten by a serious French raider in Goliath in the King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, with Lumiere Rock back in fifth and Emily Upjohn runner up.

So once more we could see a French raider land another big Group 1 in SPARKLING PLENTY, she was tough when landing the Prix Diane by a head, that form has been franked by the runner up, one to beat for me.

ELECTROLYTE (1pt each way @ 12/1)
BELLUM JUSTUM (1pt win @ 5/1) – SAYEDATY SADATY (1pt win @ 5/1)
SPARKLING PLENTY (1pt each way @ 10/1)

[JamesScudamore]

On to day three

Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)

Roger Varian’s AL MUSMAK got off at the third attempt for the season when landing the Listed Henry Cecil Stakes at Newmarket, the drop back to a mile looked spot on and could not of won more convincingly, be a force if coming here and in that mood of form. Lead Artist & Socialite who finished third and fourth respectively have to be given a strong consideration especially the former who was the beaten favourite that day.

Irish contender CHICAGO CRITIC who outrun his odds wat 80/1 when finishing third in the Jersey Stakes at Ascot, the consideration is that this was a big run off the back of a 7lb Penalty so I would not be surprised of another big run once more.

King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2)

Kings Stand winner ASFOORA will more than likely be in the declaration list here, the Australian jetsetter stepped up after being beaten in the Temple Stakes, the runner up Regional has been beaten again when only managing fourth in the Hackwood Stakes, any horse that can outrun the likes of Big Eves has to be quick, my question has Big Eves depleted since his juvenile days.

Starlust has given the Commonwealth Cup form a boost when landing the Listed City Walls Stakes and would prefer slower conditions if turning up here, Jasour another that has flopped recently after finishing third in the Commonwealth Cup – so this looks a H2H between Big Eves and Asfoora, and I believe the latter is classy.

AL MUSMAK (1pt win @ 5/1) – CHICAGO CRITC (1pt each way @ 16/1)
ASFOORA (2.5pt win @ 3/1) NAP

[JamesScudamore]

So lets get them up nice and early for Saturday at Sandown and just the two races I am interested in here.

She is going to be a short price i am afraid, but TAMFANA in the Atalanta Stakes on Saturday Sandown 14.25 – she is around 11/10 which is buying money I think, i hate dropping short prices but she is far better than anything that is running in that race , The ground will be riding good to firm and dropping back to a mile after her 1000gns 4th where she had to come around a wall of horses and made up 10 lengths in the final 250yards, great turn of food she has printing money i think.

15.35 Sandown the Solario Stakes and its all about Newmarket prep runs for this and John Gosden’s FIELD OF GOLD won a maiden that could turn out winners, the 6th came out and won last week and the 5th was touched off last week also to a length so has improved. – SEAGULLS ELEVEN is the main danger , runner up in a Group 2 Superlative Stakes last time out when behind the unbeaten Ancient Truth to under two lengths, solid run. Both currently priced at 4/1 I would back both against the field.
Best of Luck

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