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Badactor, imho, the best value at the meeting from a European angel should be David Junior in the Classic.
Also Godolphin’s Ech of Light in the Mile looks a value bet. I hope so, though they both look very hot races. Also, his stable companion, Librettist looks a value bet.
(Edited by Grimes at 7:31 pm on Nov. 4, 2006)
There are so many factors to take into account, FSL, even with many decades of experience of the game, it would be anything but an exact science.
Ironically, one factor is that though the bookies are second to none in their knowledge of a horses ability, they will often overprice a horse, usually an outsider, which they must know would have a very good chance of having the class and being ready to win, but they are happy to let punters draw attention away from it.
The net result is that I often take a price about a horse and chuckle to myself at my luck, only to find that if the horse wins, its’s gone out even further, sometimes much further. Deeply distressing! But not as much as losing, of course, which is more often my fate.<br>
The Yanks look after their own. More power to their elbows.
What am I saying! I should have said the neocon Republicans look after their own monied supporters.
Although it’s true, I believe, that in the past they have been more prepared to protect their own indstries and workers. Which relative to us, admittedly, is not saying a lot.
(Edited by Grimes at 7:59 pm on Oct. 31, 2006)
"That way you may even convince your partner in life that there is some worth in following, and betting on, horseraces." – Seagull.
…there speaks a man of bitter experience, it sounds like to me.<br> <br>I reckon we must all have been under the marital cosh at times – assuming we have a long-haired mate. Well, that may not be too relevant now, but women do have a predisposition for nagging. <br>
(Edited by Grimes at 7:54 pm on Oct. 31, 2006)
What knocked me for six about him was what had knocked everyone for six in a race last year – the effortless way he was cruising towards the finish; laughing at the field. He oozed class.
You sometimes read someone saying how reassured and relieved they were when they saw the horse they bet on exuding such superiority; "you could see the winner from some way out". This must have been one such case for the lucky/shrewd punters who bet on him, imo.
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(Edited by Grimes at 7:40 pm on Oct. 31, 2006)
I thought he didn’t clear the fences by very much until he made that fairly bad jump, then he jumped with a bit more gusto.
<br>(Edited by Grimes at 4:19 pm on Oct. 31, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 4:19 pm on Oct. 31, 2006)
Same here. Why not the Irish results in the RP? I still can’t navigate the foreign sites. (They seem to think South Africa is special – but not France, Germany and Italy, for example).
That’s seems to me the point, Sir Harry.
Cataldi was placed in a show of heads in the Champion Stakes, I believe, which was covered in a time faster than the record set by Brigadier Gerard not so many years before.
Incredibly, he figured about a quarter or even a third of the way down the long handicap in the Cambridgeshire, I think it was, ended up favourite with 9.10 on his back -the bottom weight then being 7.7, and duly won easily.
But surely nobody in their right minds would have put any of the principles in that Champions Stakes in the same league as the Brig.
As regards El Gran Senor (aka The Man from Del Monte), I remember chuckling as I read , I think it was the morning of the Derby, that when his connections saw the time he was purported to have returned, I think in the Guineas, they thought there had to have been something wrong with the camera film speed. Until they checked it.
The queen once had a mare called Escorial, who showed glimpses of serious talent, but turned out to be thorough Jade. I don’t mean my wife’s a jade – anything but – but reflecting on it now, Escorial reminds me of my wife, who has to be the least competitive person in the world, yet has the physical attributes of an outstanding athlete: very low blood pressure, long arms (great for boxing of course), terrific hand-eye coordination, brilliant visual awareness (e.g. of the smallest and least significant object in a room – eyes like a sh**tehawk), and well, if you can think of anything else, part from competitiveness, she’d have it.
Her father and brothers were the opposite, very good sportsmen all right, but also highly competitive. Anyway, every now and again they’d press her into playing darts or carpet bowls or some such, and much to their annoyance, she’d wipe the floor with them!
Not exactly your Babe Didricksen Zaharaias, probably the greatest female all-round athlete and sportswoman ever, but good enough.
When Babe (some Babe!) was asked by a journalist if there was any game she hadn’t like to play as a young girl, she growled, "Dolls"!
But I digress…
(Edited by Grimes at 5:57 pm on Oct. 24, 2006)
Thanks. It’s important for me to know, at least have a sound opinion. My mind wasn’t in a very clinical mode to evaluate his prospect of success at that point.
I’ve just looked at his collateral form with Teofilo and the speed figures fo the runners in it didn’t compare with those of the runners in Teofilo’s race against Holy Roman Emperor.
You can’t crib at the winner’s performance. He’s obviously as good as his most recent purchase price entitled him to be; which of course is not always guaranteed by any means.  Also my congratulations to and deepest envy of Bulwark for picking him.
Howmsomeever…. as a fully-accredited armchair jockey, I thought Kinane made a wrong move to extricate EM at the crucial stage, taking a left instead of a right, which seemed to me more promising. Though I suppose the far side on the open course would normally be the safest line to take.
Anyway, I’m going to watch the video and see if there might be an iota of truth in my perception of the matter, or not. I hope not, as top professional jockeys don’t really come anywhere near deserving to be publicly  regaled with the casual impressions of a Noddy.
At worst, it’s inevitable that split-second decisions will not be unfailingly on the mark, in any field, never mind one with a race course on which your riding a nag at a rate of knots in the middle of a bunch of similar steeds in a state of more or less constant jockeying for position. But talking through my pocket sometimes affords a certain comfort to the rueful punter.
I’m often miffed to hear the fierce criticisms of jockeys and trainers on here, but when my horse loses "undeservedly" in my eyes at the time, no-one dances up and down and rages more fiercely than me.
(Edited by Grimes at 6:35 pm on Oct. 21, 2006)
Brough Scott used to write some hilarious articles – especially when writing about Maurice Zilber, French accent and all!
Came to France From Algeria with 30 bob and became one of the great French trainers.
Zilber trained for the American tycoon, Nelson Bunker Hunt, and got on the wrong side of his racing manager or some such character, who persuaded Hunt to take his horses away from Zilber.
To which act, Zilber responded with words to the effect that Hunt was rich, but he was lucky – and that’s the way he preferred it!
Don’t you talk about underdressed slappers like that! I’ve never yet met a slut I didn’t like.
I never try to justify HW’s record. 5 out of 11 is not bad, though admittedly mediocre in terms of a champion.
However, the fact is that the time and manner in which HW won two of his races marked him out as a true champion by my definition. The clock never lies! Bedford and Coe were champions because they achieved world records.
Ovett, in my book, who was much more highly esteemed by the press and the public, as a competitor than Bedford, was a great runner, but not imo a champion on that level.
And even with his brief career, I rate GW a true champion. Whether he fulfils his potential as a champion is another matter all together.
But when it comes down to it, the criteria for a champion is largely a matter of opinion, in terms of how you weight raw speed with competitiveness.
How much is heart/courage, how much is mindless servility, and how much is loving docility (as it seemed to be in Horatio Nelson, for example).
Is there no place in an equine pantheon for a champion, who in no way lacked courage, but was "too much of a thinker for his own good?!!?" A maverick.
I like to think there should be, but I can also understand why heart/courage is  so highly prized and think that in a way, it reflects credit on those who do.
The problem, particularly with us Brits, though, is that the our competitive spirit can be thoroughly benighted – shallow and senseless. Witness the behaviour of so many of our football fans abroad.  Indeed, their behaviour at home. Basking in the glory of their teams, but ready to turn on a great player, at the drop of a hat, if they lose their form for a while.
(Edited by Grimes at 8:29 pm on Oct. 18, 2006)
Denman, in particular, but I’m very keenly looking forward to the Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup, Breeders’ Cup and the King George.
Actually, LSL, I did take notice.
What struck me was that his trainer suggested a few weeks before that he probably wouldn’t run in the Ces, yet I noticed on Oddsmaker that money kept coming for him.
Then I decided to risk it and could still get 20s; a little later I put another fiver on at 12s.
But I’d have to disgree with you about the money on a horse always talking. Sure, it can be a very significant indicator, but by no means always.
Incidentally, Mordin’s judgment was backed up unequivocally by the Mirror’s Valuescope team, who mentioned a couple of big-priced ew bets, but basically thought Detroit City home and hosed.
Talking about significant betting moves, again, I noticed several weeks ago that horses little or nothing had been said about in the lead-up to a race, yet seemd anomalously low in the betting maybe 3rd or 4th favourite in the betting in the bookies’ adverts in the morning paper on the day of the race had a quite regular habit of turning up trumps. I didn’t have a penny on any of them!
The last few weeks I’ve been watching out for them and it’s been disappointing, but I feel pretty sure it’s worth persevering with. It means the bookies know something most of us don’t and they don’t want to draw attention to it by bringing the price in too drastically, but they don’t want to lose more on it than they have to.
It suggests the racing press have a shrewd idea about it, but since, as someone pointed out, we are really competing against each other, and not the bookies, I’m amazed at how open and nformative they are – even bearing in mind that they’re paid to be helpful.
<br>(Edited by Grimes at 10:34 pm on Oct. 17, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Grimes at 10:45 pm on Oct. 17, 2006)
