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Predicting Starting Prices

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  • #383
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    I’ve been working on a system for a few weeks that puts horses e/w against the favourites in multiples at SP. (Click here to see) The system uses the SP of the horses as their price rather than taking fixed prices. However as you can see from the thread I’m not very good at predicting the SPs. I think the example of the 1:00 race today at Chepstow is a good example (the result is irrelevant). For my purposes the price of the favourite is irrelevant also, its the price of the winner and the 4th (and 12th) that interest me. What made Carnival Town go off at 14/1? It was predicted in the post as 8/1 and was that price throughout the morning. Equally, what made The Sawyer go off at 4/1? It was forecast 10/1 in the post and was 7/1 in the morning. How do traders know what horses are going to be supported? Did anyone foresee the strong support for The Sawyer or was it based on what they saw in the paddock (didn’t do them much good!).

    I guess what I’m asking is, is there anyone that has a system/ formula/ instincts that helps them work out the starting prices of horses. Do trainer and jockey bookings/ combinations draw support, or is it just random?

    Answers greatly appreciated.

    #29907
    insomniac
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Phew! That’s a toughie. I don’t know the answer. In fact, I’d go so far as to say no one (not even the professional compilers) are especially accurate they’re just less bad than the rest.

    #29908
    stolenhorse
    Member
    • Total Posts 46

    In response to your question. Naturally no one can 100% predict a horse’s sp. However it is sometimes possible to identify quite quickly which horses are likely to drift or (esp) are going to shorten for whatever reason.

    Rather than predicting an sp, close attention to the markets can often be valuable in identifying a ‘false’ priced favourite, particularly in novice hurdles or bumpers. For Example you will often find a McCoy/Jonjo/JP McManus horse say, sent off a 7/4 favourite when in a competetive race it should be around 4/1 or whatever. It is in these such races you should aim to find a good each way alternative to include in your system.

    #29909
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I tend to ignore market prices and moves .. any genuine reaction to a horse shortening up in price tends to mean that it is more likely to win than if it drifted, but unless you are the person that started the market move the value is away by the time you’ve noticed it.

    #29910
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    Once you’ve worked out a system for how to predict SP’s accurately FSL, give me a shout, I’ll give you a few quid for it.

    #29911
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    No-one got any pearls of wisdom to add then?

    You’ll be the first to know Cormack15 if I do be sure of that.:cool:

    #29912
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Some horses will always be impossible to price up as connections will know more about what is expected from the horses than you will. Two Barney Curley horses could have exactly the same form and profile but should be either 6/4 or 14/1 depending what he’s got planned.

    #29913
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    If you could predict SPs accurately, you wouldn’t need to worry about what’s going to win.

    It’s usually easier to spot horses that are likely to shorten, where the market has not yet taken account of the number crunchers who are calculating during the morning and don’t start playing until the afternoon. I know they exsist in significant numbers and bet with substantial funds.

    Spotting drifters in advance is much more difficult unless you are an insider who knows something the market doesn’t.

    All in all, it’s a very tricky business, even if you’ve been doing it for many years. It can make you look very foolish indeed.

    #29914
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    There are so many factors to take into account,  FSL, even with many decades of experience of the game, it would be anything but an exact science.

    Ironically, one factor is that though the bookies are second to none in their knowledge of a horses ability, they will often overprice a horse, usually an outsider, which they must know would have a very good chance of having the class and being ready to win, but they are happy to let punters draw attention away from it.

    The net result is that I often take a price about a horse and chuckle to myself at my luck, only to find that if the horse wins, its’s gone out even further, sometimes much further. Deeply distressing! But not as much as losing, of course, which is more often my fate.<br>

    #29915
    carlislecarlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi there

    If bookies have got things sewn up so tightly, and estimating risk/turning a profit is nye impossible. Then there’s no such thing as a GOOD bet.

    I disagree.

    Bookies have a different mindset to punters. Their long game is to sell £1 for £1.30, whilst keeping the mugs hooked.<br>Rollup! Rollup!

    They are similar to Insurance companies, Norwich Union are not in the business of telling you were the next fire will be.<br>In the same way bookies look to, initially, adopt a safe position, not leaving themselves open to big losses.<br>Then they react to the flow of money.

    To be a successful punter must create their own odds, compare them to bookies odds, then exploit the difference.

    These are my firm beliefs.  SP sing along to the bookies tune.

    Don’t back a horse having it’s first run.

    Godolphin newcomer at 4/7 last week got well beaten.<br>(bookie says 4/7, I say NO!)

    Don’t back a horse that hasn’t produced a worthwhile speedrating.

    byefrom<br>your friend carlisle

    "trying not to be a mug……………"

    (Edited by carlisle at 10:59 am on Nov. 5, 2006)

    #29916
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    I agree with most of that, carlisle.

    It’s difficult to create your own prices as a BETTER guide to the market than the market itself, which is very efficient as statistics show.

    Some people must be able to do it, but not very many.

    SP is not much good: the professionals always take a price unless someone is knocking a price out. This doesn’t happen too much these days.

    Speed ratings…..Ah, now there’s an interesting topic.  

    #29917
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    An interesting conundrum: <br>To a man, no one thinks that the market can be predicted accurately, yet how many believe that value is the key to profit????

    #29918
    carlislecarlisle
    Member
    • Total Posts 772

    Hi

    bookies do have losing races.

    SP’s/early price can be way off the mark.

    byefrom<br>carlisle

    <br>"she stood there laughing…………"

    #29919
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    It didn’t take long for that self-fulfilling prophecy to be realised yet again.

    I took just over 4/1 on Tidal Fury – knowing the trainer wasn’t a big, fashionable trainer – and it turned up 10/1!

    Today, Wednesday, 8/11: Fullards at 20/1 on Betfair. Last night, I tried to get 11/2 on Betfair, and ended up with 9/2!

    When will I believe what I’ve actually written about the SPs of smallish, unfashionable trainers, and bet accordingly!

    <br>(Edited by Grimes at 7:11 pm on Nov. 8, 2006)<br>

    (Edited by Grimes at 7:13 pm on Nov. 8, 2006)

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