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“Unless you are Golden Horn of course”.
The going in Golden Horn’s Arc was firmer than it was today.
Draw is a lot fairer from a higher draw when the ground is good-firm.Value Is EverythingOfficial going according to the Racing Post “very Soft”. My arse.
Abbeye Slow by just 1.09
Arc Fast by 0.23Value Is EverythingWell done Green’. First and the unlucky third.
Barnavara got a soft lead, but that was always very possible beforehand if Qilin Queen didn’t take her on… and didn’t.
Value Is EverythingI like the shorter priced horses here.
Tamfana main bet: Stable is now in much much better form than earlier in the year.
Savers on See The Fire and Wemightakethelongway.Value Is EverythingVery well done Darren with 33/1.
…And BigG and co for 40/1 each way the fourth.
My three main bets were nowhere. I chose the wrong ones to make the main bets.
Three of my four savers were 1st, 2nd and 3rd.Should’ve done the forecast. LOL
Value Is EverythingCommentators give five good reasons why a horse “might” or should” win beforehand, but not “must” win. Post race analysis should be seen completely differently to pre-race. What do you think will happen? is a different question to What has happened? It’s good to use evidence of what happened in the race itself in order to explain what went right and wrong. Something that didn’t seem obvious beforehand could have proved important in today’s race and more importantly in future (betting) races… And equally something that seemed important beforehand sometimes proves not important at all afterwards.
As my moto says: “Value Is Everything”. I make my own 100% tissue, but use all information and that 100% book changes from Early Odds to what itv would be a minute from the off. I do understand why a punter might find some horses that shorten into 2/1 “value” and not value if lengthening to 5/1. A horse’s best form may well indicate it has a better than 33% chance of winning, therefore 2/1 would be a good bet. Whereas the same horse’s recent form would have a worse that 16.7% chance and therefore be a poor bet @ 5/1. Sometimes eg when the trainer was when the horse ran last time out himself in poor form and now the trainer is in good form. With that trainer form, the chance of the horse coming back to form is greater than it would be if the trainer is still in poor form… And even better if there’s confidence in the horse – well backed to do so.
Bookmakers can also keep a certain punter on his books purely because he has a good record with a particular trainer. The bookmaker using that punter’s one bet in order to tip him off he should shorten the horse… Or lengthen the horse if that one punter does not get involved.Although some horses might be made a “false favourite” by bookmakers in the Early Market. Not so the market a minute before the off. Punters can back horses for many different reasons and sometimes punters make some “false favourites” at off time. But a lot of the time I can see why some horses have shortened in the market.
Value Is EverythingI agree LD, there isn’t much proper pace, although most would like a fast pace.
AA would be one who could lead having led in his European trial, but that was over shorter and hasn’t been a front runner in Japan. So whether they’ll want to risk pulling too hard racing slower than usual.
Croix Du Nord was settled in his European trial but has often raced prominently in Japan over this trip – so may well go forward from his high draw.
I wouldn’t expect Kalpana to lead, but should be in the first four or five early.
Sosie led in the Eclipse – not that it did him any good – but should also not be far away today.With the first time cheek pieces – I’d expect Los Angeles to lead with Minnie Hauk not far away either if not inconvenienced by the number 1 stall.
Coolmore just might play silly buggers!
Value Is EverythingI’m already on Kalpana and Los Angeles (with a small lay on Estrange) ante-post. Have done the pair again, with a bigger place only bet on Kalpana.
I am pleased to see they’re trying cheek pieces on Kalpana. Given the impression she’s possibly been idling this season. Although with the distances, goings and opposition of all but her latest start has done well to place. Last time was not fit. Kalpana’s form with Calandagan is perhaps the best form in this race.
I wouldn’t back Los Angeles now at the price I got ante-post. However, he’s now 33/1 on the machine which again imo underestimates his chance. Ran right up to his best in this race last year and as a big brute I expected more improvement as a four year old. imo Hasn’t had his best conditions all season, I have him down as a stayer at 1m4f and it surprised me had speed for the Tatts Gold Cup. Bit disappointing since, only 4th to Byzantime Dream in the Foy but a truly run race on much softer ground should suit him better. Los Angeles has always had his quirks; sometimes plays up beforehand and temperament is possibly why they’re trying first time CP’s on him too. Or is he going to be a pacemaker for the Coolmore first string?
Minnie Hauk is favourite. Can’t see significant improvement in many of these but she is a possible exception (needs to find some). Stamina looking her forte in four “Oaks” and arguably only just doing enough. Hasn’t had ground as soft as this in any of those races, but it was when winning her maiden. Connections did say earlier in the year they expected her to be better on a sounder surface, but imo does not have the archetypal pointy toe action of one that usually needs firmer. The added test of stamina soft ground brings should suit if acting on it. I’ve saved on her.
Aventure was beaten further by Calandagan when runner-up in the Prix Du Saint Cloud, than Kalpana was in the King George. Was disputing favouritism after an impressive Vermeille Trial. Second in the Arc last year too so looked very promising. However, friendless in the market – almost doubled in price in just a couple of days and I can see why. Trainer now appears to be in awful form.
At the odds, I prefer Aventure’s owner companion Sosie. His earlier form this term over shorter suggested he’s better than when 4th to Blue Stocking in the 2024 Arc. Trainer Frabre knows how to win the race. Sosie was given an awful ride in the Eclipse but only going down by 1/2 length from the excellent Byzantine Dream in the Foy. With a better draw and softer ground he should imo finish in front of his Japanese rival here.
The horse beginning with “A” is the only one of the three Japanese horses to have a good draw, but I don’t see the form with Godolphin’s “Cauliflower” as being good enough to win an Arc… And Japanese Derby winner Croix Du Nord is another probably inconvenienced by ground as well as the draw. The one he beat in his Trial – Daryz – has a good record at Longchamp and on softish ground. Ignore the International run on firmer – friendless in the market there. The way he runs suggests this first run at 1m4f should if anything bring about more improvement. Especially as his trainer is in magnificent form. Daryz 13/1 saver for me, as was his stable companion Quissana (although he’s too short now). Needs to improve quite a bit on last time out’s Romanet form but has been progressing in leaps and bounds. Graffard’s apparent third string the “French Oaks” winner Gezora ridden by Marquand isn’t out of it either. Only beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Aventure in her trial… Actually… 33/1 is too big to ignore so all of Graffard’s trio covered as savers!
I do though, “only” have three main bets Kalpana, Los Angeles and….
At a massive price, White Birch. His best form is probably as good as anything here. Beating Auguste Rodin with the performance backed up on time. It was quite a long time ago… However, would have gone close to winning the Tatts Gold Cup with a clear run and hasn’t had many opportunities – waiting for a softer surface. tbh I came close to backing him ante-post for the Champion Stakes. Best so far has been at 1m2f, but hasn’t had many runs at 1m4f and was once placed in the Derby. Only fifth last time out in the Irish Champion so it’s possible he’s on the downgrade now. but that came after another long break. imo Represents outstanding value @ 39/1.
Value Is EverythingYes, there are some centrist “One Nation” Conservatives left, Drone. Right here.
Tbh Even I was (for a very short spell) considering whether I should vote Reform next time. Just as many ex-Labour voters are. I’d like to “stop the boats” and both Labour and Conservatives have both failed on that score. However, there are doubts Reform would do any better. Can’t see them getting a deal with France and / or the EU…
But the thing that’s made me totally rule out voting for Reform is the type of Conservative MP defecting to them. They’re all from the Right, those who I didn’t want in the Conservative Party in the first place. Before moving to Somerset, Danny Kruger was my MP and I didn’t like him then.
Kemi doesn’t seem to be doing anything and may well be replaced by Jenrick before the next election. Jenrick would be worse, too far to the Right for me to vote Tory. That said, if it came to a choice between Jenrick and Farage I’d choose Jenrick. But I can’t see the Conservative Party recovering soon.
We don’t have a centre party anymore. Even the Liberals seem to be more Left than the Labour Party these days.
The time is surely right for a new Centrist Party, maybe led by Rory Stewart?
Value Is EverythingI’ve adapted XTC’s classic “Making Plans For Nigel”.
Reform is making plans, for Nigel.
He only wants what’s best, for him.
They’re only making plans for Nigel.
Nigel just needs that helping hand…
From Kru-gerrrrrrr….And if young Nigel says he’s happy.
He must be happy.
He must be happy.
He must be happy in his world.Nigel is outspoken and he likes to speak.
And loves to be – spoken to (in his world)
Nigel is happy in his world (in his own world)
Nigel is happy in his world (it’s his own world)Reform is making plans for Nigel
He has his future in a Channel deal
They’re only making plans for Nigel
Nigel’s whole future is as good as sealed,
yeeeeeee-ahBut the people of Britain will see
He’s only attract-ing right wing MP’s
So if young Nigel says he’s happy
He won’t be happy…
He won’t be happy…
He won’t be happy for ve-ry long.(When is the poetry competition?)
Value Is EverythingI agree we shouldn’t expect Labour to have achieved those “6 Milestones” yet.
Which is why I asked “how are they doing”?imo: On the things Starmer told us to judge Labour on – so far – it’s been very poor.
Value Is EverythingWhen the Conservatives government couldn’t do all they said they would – because of Covid and Ukraine etc needed to be paid for – the Left shouted of “betrayal” and “broken promises”.
So you cannot blame the Right Wing Press for attacking The Left, when they got into power promising “growth”, with any increased taxation only on the rich.
These were the “Six Milestones” Starmer himself told us to judge Labour on:
“1: Raising living standards in every part of the UK, as part of the government’s aim to deliver the highest sustained economic growth in the G7 group of rich nations.
2: Building 1.5 million homes in England and fast-tracking planning decisions on at least 150 major infrastructure projects.
3: Ending hospital backlogs to meet the NHS target that 92% of patients in England wait no longer than 18 weeks for planned treatment.
4: A named police officer for every neighbourhood in England and Wales, with the recruitment of 13,000 additional officers, Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs) and special constables
5: Increasing the proportion of children in England who are “ready to learn” when they start school at the age of five, to 75%.
6: Putting the country on track for at least 95% clean power by 2030″.
How are they doing?
Increasing taxes for everyone may well be the wise thing to do – given today’s circumstances – but Labour’s previous promises are stopping them from doing so.
Value Is EverythingWell done Mike, you’re having a good weekend.
Hope Illinois is ok. Looked amiss.
Value Is EverythingOh come on Glad’, you’re being pedantic.
Although a country going “bankrupt” has no definite definition… Either the UK was bankrupt or Healey had to go cap in hand to the IMF to stop the country from going bankrupt.
Hardly “disinformation”. The country was on its knees. In much worse state then than it is now.Value Is EverythingAl Riffa goes very well on a soft surface and proved he stays this far on Good ground last time out… But softer ground and a strongly run race both also place more emphasis on stamina. So will he be as effective in a strongly run 1m6f on softer going?
Amiloc is a progressive three year old who might well be up to this class… But the going is going to be a lot different to Ascot (times suggested it was pretty firm in the King Ed). That said, he does imo have an action that should be effective on softer. Again, should stay this far, but 12f on firmish is much more a test of speed than this might be.
Illinois’s defeat by Scandanavia in the Goodwood Cup looks a lot better now than it did at the time. Consistent, beaten only by Leger and Gold Cup winners in his last 8 starts. Seems at least as effective on softer surfaces. On “form ratings” there’s not much between him and Al Riffa, but with conditions that may favour stamina rather than speed, I’d rather be on Illinois’s side.
I love Al Qareem, but he’s not really Group 1 class. Can see him placing, So would be relying on others to run badly to win.
The others don’t look up to it.
I’ve backed Illinois with half savers on Amiloc and Al Riffa.
Value Is EverythingWhen the vast majority of us Racing fans believe there’s too much racing, there surely must be too much Racing.
Blank days don’t matter to punters, but maybe this blank day highlighted Racing’s case that this upping of taxation is not fair.
Value Is EverythingYou can’t judge a jockey from as little as 5 rides, V31… And also without taking into account expectation – not all horses have the same chance of winning.
No reason to believe Murphy’s riding for Alsagar will be any worse (or better) than his riding for any other owner. So his stats riding for other owners are just as worthy to compare with Doyle’s.
Yes, the most important thing is how good the horse is… But how good the jockey is… Or more significantly, how consistent the jockey is in valuable races – is also important.
Holly Doyle is not in the same class as Oisin… And although she’s a “good jockey”, tbh she’s no better than a lot of others. ie When Murphy is not available then Alsagar will be able to get a jockey at least as good as Holly, anyway. Therefore no point in keeping her as a retained rider.
Value Is Everything
