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The ‘1st time cheekpieces in a group 1’ continues to be a curse stats wise and Illinois is in them for the first time, and AOB saying “it might take until next year to get him back to where we want him to be” is a concern for me as well. Amiloc may prefer it quick rather than soft ground wise. So I’ve sided with Al Riffa out of the three for today.
Couldn’t decide between the three of Riffy, Illi and Amiloc so have done the sensible thing for once and will just enjoy the race. Obviously when one of them wins I’ll have some form of gamblers regret eating away at me.
I am not in great form but think Illinois can win.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Al Riffa goes very well on a soft surface and proved he stays this far on Good ground last time out… But softer ground and a strongly run race both also place more emphasis on stamina. So will he be as effective in a strongly run 1m6f on softer going?
Amiloc is a progressive three year old who might well be up to this class… But the going is going to be a lot different to Ascot (times suggested it was pretty firm in the King Ed). That said, he does imo have an action that should be effective on softer. Again, should stay this far, but 12f on firmish is much more a test of speed than this might be.
Illinois’s defeat by Scandanavia in the Goodwood Cup looks a lot better now than it did at the time. Consistent, beaten only by Leger and Gold Cup winners in his last 8 starts. Seems at least as effective on softer surfaces. On “form ratings” there’s not much between him and Al Riffa, but with conditions that may favour stamina rather than speed, I’d rather be on Illinois’s side.
I love Al Qareem, but he’s not really Group 1 class. Can see him placing, So would be relying on others to run badly to win.
The others don’t look up to it.
I’ve backed Illinois with half savers on Amiloc and Al Riffa.
Value Is EverythingWell done Mike, you’re having a great weekend, and VF too.
Love Al Qareem, he stuck on well for the place money, he is so tough. Got an ew double with him and Ballet Slippers so I hope she can place.Well done Mike, you’re having a good weekend.
Hope Illinois is ok. Looked amiss.
Value Is EverythingNice one Mike and also well done to Joseph. He does have some special horses in his stable. Just think of Banbridge and this one.
They went far too fast early on and the winner sat well out of it and picked up the pieces, you really do have to give Al Qareem a lot of credit for sticking on for 3rd after going off in front that fast.
I am not sure the Al Riffa will stay the 2m trip in the Melbourne Cup especially as he will likely be close to (if not the) top weight in the race.
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