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It’s a underwhelming race in my eyes , Kalpana is the e.w play for me as she’ll love the ground
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
My three against the field
Minnie Hauk
Croix Du Nord
QuisisanaBlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
It will probably ride a bit better as they are on a new strip of ground today.
Interesting fact that both Kalpana and Minnie Hauk have the exact same form figures on soft ground – run once and won once on it.
Personally, I do not think the Ascot race Kalpana won last year on soft ground amounts to a great deal form wise and there are many other horses (Aventure, Sosie, Daryz, Cualificar, Quisisana, Gezora and White Birch) that have much more winning form on ground described as either soft, very soft or heavy and barring Aventure, they are all currently quoted with bigger prices.
Latest penetrometer reading is 4.1, which is the same reading that Waldgeist won on in 2019 when the ground was actually described as ‘very soft’, yet his winning time was only 2.57s slower than standard!
Really disappointed whirl didnt arrive given the ground would have been right in her favor, but she did run terribly the other week!
That being said, the arc has a history of horses running well in it multiple times
Aventures run last year would win this
Sosies would get him placed
Ive put myself off los angelesIll add alohi alii in albeit hes been fairly well supporter so it may be a late play
Aventure 6/1 e/w
Sosie 12/1 e/w
Alohi alii e/w (hoping for 14s)Think its a cracking race imo and a good betting heat, case could be made for most all the way tk hotazhell
Keep getting a niggling feeling that Aventure is going to win this today..so took the 11/2 available this morning
Aventure has never run out of the first 4 in her whole racing career, she loves cut in the ground, ran second in this race last year and is a daughter of Sea The Stars one of the most genuine horses to ever grace a racecourse.
The only negative is her draw in 12 but the Japanese horse won from it in 2021 on soft ground so it’s not out of the questionMy final 3 against the field and their draw….
Aventure – 12
Cualificar – 8
White Birch – 9Great days racing ahead, good luck.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Sticking with the 2 I’ve got, not adding any more, hoping for the best…
Minnie Hauk 9-2
Kalpana 25-1 ewGood luck all
I’m already on Kalpana and Los Angeles (with a small lay on Estrange) ante-post. Have done the pair again, with a bigger place only bet on Kalpana.
I am pleased to see they’re trying cheek pieces on Kalpana. Given the impression she’s possibly been idling this season. Although with the distances, goings and opposition of all but her latest start has done well to place. Last time was not fit. Kalpana’s form with Calandagan is perhaps the best form in this race.
I wouldn’t back Los Angeles now at the price I got ante-post. However, he’s now 33/1 on the machine which again imo underestimates his chance. Ran right up to his best in this race last year and as a big brute I expected more improvement as a four year old. imo Hasn’t had his best conditions all season, I have him down as a stayer at 1m4f and it surprised me had speed for the Tatts Gold Cup. Bit disappointing since, only 4th to Byzantime Dream in the Foy but a truly run race on much softer ground should suit him better. Los Angeles has always had his quirks; sometimes plays up beforehand and temperament is possibly why they’re trying first time CP’s on him too. Or is he going to be a pacemaker for the Coolmore first string?
Minnie Hauk is favourite. Can’t see significant improvement in many of these but she is a possible exception (needs to find some). Stamina looking her forte in four “Oaks” and arguably only just doing enough. Hasn’t had ground as soft as this in any of those races, but it was when winning her maiden. Connections did say earlier in the year they expected her to be better on a sounder surface, but imo does not have the archetypal pointy toe action of one that usually needs firmer. The added test of stamina soft ground brings should suit if acting on it. I’ve saved on her.
Aventure was beaten further by Calandagan when runner-up in the Prix Du Saint Cloud, than Kalpana was in the King George. Was disputing favouritism after an impressive Vermeille Trial. Second in the Arc last year too so looked very promising. However, friendless in the market – almost doubled in price in just a couple of days and I can see why. Trainer now appears to be in awful form.
At the odds, I prefer Aventure’s owner companion Sosie. His earlier form this term over shorter suggested he’s better than when 4th to Blue Stocking in the 2024 Arc. Trainer Frabre knows how to win the race. Sosie was given an awful ride in the Eclipse but only going down by 1/2 length from the excellent Byzantine Dream in the Foy. With a better draw and softer ground he should imo finish in front of his Japanese rival here.
The horse beginning with “A” is the only one of the three Japanese horses to have a good draw, but I don’t see the form with Godolphin’s “Cauliflower” as being good enough to win an Arc… And Japanese Derby winner Croix Du Nord is another probably inconvenienced by ground as well as the draw. The one he beat in his Trial – Daryz – has a good record at Longchamp and on softish ground. Ignore the International run on firmer – friendless in the market there. The way he runs suggests this first run at 1m4f should if anything bring about more improvement. Especially as his trainer is in magnificent form. Daryz 13/1 saver for me, as was his stable companion Quissana (although he’s too short now). Needs to improve quite a bit on last time out’s Romanet form but has been progressing in leaps and bounds. Graffard’s apparent third string the “French Oaks” winner Gezora ridden by Marquand isn’t out of it either. Only beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Aventure in her trial… Actually… 33/1 is too big to ignore so all of Graffard’s trio covered as savers!
I do though, “only” have three main bets Kalpana, Los Angeles and….
At a massive price, White Birch. His best form is probably as good as anything here. Beating Auguste Rodin with the performance backed up on time. It was quite a long time ago… However, would have gone close to winning the Tatts Gold Cup with a clear run and hasn’t had many opportunities – waiting for a softer surface. tbh I came close to backing him ante-post for the Champion Stakes. Best so far has been at 1m2f, but hasn’t had many runs at 1m4f and was once placed in the Derby. Only fifth last time out in the Irish Champion so it’s possible he’s on the downgrade now. but that came after another long break. imo Represents outstanding value @ 39/1.
Value Is EverythingI found it a strange race this to be confident on anything, so I settled on Hotazhell 80-1 ew 5 places
Didn’t look to be desperately soft ground and they didn’t appear to go an overly strong gallop.
Not sure anyone has mentioned this but any thoughts on where the pace is coming from?
Alohi Alii made all to win in Deauville last time but I am not sure if that was by design and most of these either sit handy (like Minnie Hauk) or off the pace but if it is tactical you could be at a great disadvantage sitting out the back.
I agree LD, there isn’t much proper pace, although most would like a fast pace.
AA would be one who could lead having led in his European trial, but that was over shorter and hasn’t been a front runner in Japan. So whether they’ll want to risk pulling too hard racing slower than usual.
Croix Du Nord was settled in his European trial but has often raced prominently in Japan over this trip – so may well go forward from his high draw.
I wouldn’t expect Kalpana to lead, but should be in the first four or five early.
Sosie led in the Eclipse – not that it did him any good – but should also not be far away today.With the first time cheek pieces – I’d expect Los Angeles to lead with Minnie Hauk not far away either if not inconvenienced by the number 1 stall.
Coolmore just might play silly buggers!
Value Is Everything“With the first time cheek pieces – I’d expect Los Angeles to lead with Minnie Hauk not far away either. Coolmore just might play silly buggers! ”
Probably right. Los Angeles has a not-great draw, and isn’t going to be marketed hard as a Flat stallion, so can afford to be booted out of the stalls and sacrificed. He stays anyway, and doesn’t pull so it’s not as if his chance will be completely destroyed and I don’t think he’ll be pushed on to stretch them at a stupid pace, I think he’ll just be rushed up out of the stalls then used as a blocker on the fresh strip of ground protecting Minnie on his inside .
In Alloha Aliis last race he looked to settle well in front then smashed them (including Cualaficar) for pace over 1m 2 on ostensibly soft going He hit the line hard and it was his first race for 4 months – I think he could be almost anything! It would be sweet if he could finally win this for Japan!
Puerto Rico’s win in the Lagardere was just 3.23s slow, so ground might not be as soft???
Edit: ITV giving the ground as soft (good to soft in places)
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