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Gosh, how did you do that? I didn’t know you could lift a quote from one thread and use it in another . . . I could have a lot of fun with that later on . . .
(Don’t answer, that was a rhetorical question.)
Surely the BHB/BHA’s standardisation of margins by equating distance with time makes it easier for handicappers? it gets rid of this how slow or quick the horses were when they were passing the line that you mentioned near the start of your reply. The only hardship is that you have to know whether the BHA is using 4, 5 or 6 lengths per second, depending on the code (flat or jump) and the going. It doesn’t matter to us as handicappers whether the lengths are real lengths or not, and for people who are creating speed ratings it is an absolute godsend.
I know I can reverse engineer the scale that the RP uses, just by finding distances of 10 lengths say and seeing how many pounds are allocated for it, I was just playing dumb to see if someone would furnish me with further information.
By the way, do you know in what situations the BHA uses 4, 5 or 6 or can I easily look up the info on the BHA website?
Luckily, I ain’t interested in Fibresand. Polytrack & Equitrack maybeThankyou, I’ll bear that in mind, when I start looking at the race after the Guardian Classic Trial at the Whitbread meeting in April.
Okay, now that Pandorama has been turned over, and the trainer of the winner has expressed doubts about the ability of his horse to come down the Cheltenham hill, I’ll name my two suggestions. I don’t bet in these types of races, but it adds to the interest to follow a horse through the season and see how it goes.
As usual with me, the first one of these suggestions is a bit oddball.
Little Josh is a 6yo, which will mean he is 7 at Cheltenham. Maybe he will go novice chasing in the second part of the season? When it won by 35 lengths last time it was owned by Nigel Twiston-Davies. It is now owned by Findlay & Bloom. I’m not sure how I came across this horse when I was looking for something else. (I can’t remember how I came across the Racing Forum either.) Brennan was very pleased with the horse (well, I suppose you would be if you’d just won a mickey mouse race by that distance) and said the horse had a lot of speed. His bumper career wasn’t too spectacular. What will have you spluttering on your coffee is the breeding: at 125, he is already his sire’s second best progeny. In addition, his Grandsire has a flat stamina index of 8.6 furlongs and his Damsire 6.1f. Here is where the story gets better. His dam has produced two other hurdle winners, over 2 and a half and 3 miles. He comes from his sire’s second season, and his sire’s name is Pasternak! A good season by Little Josh should give the old boy a few more opportunities in the sack next Spring.
The other horse hasn’t made his hurdle debut yet: Picture This, trained by PF Nicholls and co-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson and Ron Wood (Ronnie Wood?). Apologies to whoever the third partner is. He won a bumper last year – maybe some of our Irish friends can say how he is regarded?
The two were due to meet at Lingfield yesterday, in a race that also had an Ascot H’cap Hurdle winner in it and a Doumen horse which had won a 1m4f flat race for mongrels last time out. I thought it would be an informative match up, rather than another of those bloodless victories.
Unfortunately, the weather intervened.Thanks, I agree with everything you say and knew it already. I just want to arm myself with some figures in case I ever get involved in an argument with you.
Carrying less weight isn’t necessarily an advantage in the first place. The whole point about a handicap is that the weights are based upon previous performances and are arranged so that the horses ought to finish in a deadheat.
The handicapper would give Irish Stamp 11-12 and me 9-4 so as to make us level. However, in a jump race the minimum weight is 10-0 and I have to carry this instead of 9-4, and so I am carrying 10lbs more than I should – I am thus 10lbs out of the handicap, and 10lbs at a disadvantage compared to our previous form.
Top weights do well in Nurserys (handicaps for 2yos), because the horses generally have only had 3 or so runs, and the good horses haven’t necessarily been stretched enough for the handicapper to know how good they are.
Theoretically, horses with low weights will do well in soft or heavy ground, as the top weighted horses have to carry the weight around for a longer period of time. Merigo’s race at Doncaster yesterday is a good example, though he probably won because he has only been racing for a year and is still progressing and developing.
Big, strong horses are good at carrying lots of weights in a lesser grade. Gildoran from several years ago is a good example of this. Damn, his form isn’t on the racingpost website, can someone think of a more recent example?
A little, weak horse might be ok carrying little weight in a stronger event, but then struggle if it was dropped in class and had to carry lots of weight against inferior rivals.The only category that I’m interested in is favourite horse of the year, but that category doesn’t exist.
Bit stupid to put her in Horse of the Year, so I’ll nominate her here instead.
Natagora was forced to race against the colts in order to avoid the other French fillies, and she made a game fist of it, which couldn’t have been easy with her prominent style of running, having to repel boarders. Not enough fillies run against colts, and they should earn recognition when they do so.(If anyone keeps on wondering about all these small bets I’m making, my strategy is to have small bets on the likely dangers at big prices, so that at the time of the race I can have a big bet on my main fancy without worrying about the imponderables.)
Considering how few German-bred chasers there are in the country, and how few 4m+ races, I don’t mind that statistic.
Stupid, obvious question that I’ve only just got around to asking myself. Will Air Force One like the Aintree fences, or say sod this for for a game of soldiers?
Was previously thinking, without thinking, his exuberant jumping meant he liked jumping. What if it is a sign that he doesn’t?
This is probably drivel – I’m going to bed.What about Air Force One?…is the National on his agenda.
Seems the right type of chaser (maybe not on trends/stats) but a strong travelling, safe jumping staying sort with a touch of class.Mann was quoted 16 March 2007 that the horse will be a Gold Cup horse in 2 years time (ie, 2009). Can’t do both?
When I wrote "Can’t do both?" I was being unduly influenced by the remembrance of Cool Ground.
There are 22 days between the Gold Cup & GN this season.
There have been a few horses that have won or been placed in the GN that have run in the Gold Cup or at the Festival. The following isn’t an exhaustive (ie accurate) list, and I can’t be bothered at the moment to check how many days there were inbetween the two each year:
Silver Birch ran in the Cross-Country race at the Festival, but there were 32 days inbetween.
Royal Quest ran in the Gold Cup, can’t be bothered at the moment to check which race Miinnehoma ran in.I suppose that it could be argued that for the placed horses, running at the Festival compromised their GN winning capability
Royal Auclair & Simply Gifted, 2nd & 3rd 2005
Blowing Wind 3rd 2002
Suny Bay 2nd 1998 ran in Gold Cup
Encore Un Peu 2nd 1996 to Rough Quest, ran in Kim MuirEbony Jane, 4th in 1994 was 3rd in the Irish Grand National 5 days earlier!!!
One thing we have to keep reminding ourselves is that Air Force One is a German horse, and might be capable or incapable of things that British, Irish or French steeplechasers can’t or can do.
I also read on Nick Mordin’s website that because of a fall earlier in his career, the horse concentrates on getting his front end over and on not falling, and doesn’t mind dragging his feet through the fence. How will this affect him at 29 spruce fences (assuming he doesn’t do it at the Water)? I’m not an expert on trees. Birch fences presumably cause scratches. Is spruce prickly?
It quite often comes up Soft at the Western meeting, and Denman does go fast in the middle of his races.
Can I ask a couple of stupid, basic questions.
In the ownership partnership Findlay & Bloom, is Findlay referring to Harry Findlay? Their horses so far these season seem moderate, so I’m not sure. If they bought a winner in the past couple of weeks, would it be of interest?
If a horse was trained by Paul Nicholls, and two of the owners were Sir Alex Ferguson and Ron Wood (Ronnie Wood?) would that also be of interest?
I deleted my previous postings because I didn’t want to make a fool of myself.
Denman vs. Remember Rose (Jousselin winner) vs. Princesse D’Anjou (dual Grande-Steeplechase winner) vs. Oculi (leading 5yo) vs. Loulia (another leading 5yo) vs. Louping D’Ainay vs. Musica Bella etc.
OK, this is sort of against the guidelines/rules and is mixing up threads a bit,
but it was reported on the RP website that Louping D’Ainay and Musica Bella would both receive entries for the Gold Cup & GN. Now I’d reckon there would be zero chance of them turning up for the GN (too close to important French races such as the one on 24th May). How about the Gold Cup? If they did, whereabouts would they finish?With Wye closed, the Kent National will have to be held at Folkestone. (The Scottish GN winner came 3rd in a Mdn Chase here last season, you know.)
We’ve got a bit of a problem with this horse, as we don’t want to piss off Fists of Fury and put him on the Gold Cup thread, and Kendal Cavalier will mock us out of town on this thread as his damsire is Strong Gale.
DARKNESS
9yo by Accordion, out of a Strong Gale mare
Owned by Lady Lloyd-Webber, trained by Charlie Egerton
Won the Feltham when it was held at Sandown
17 lengths 3rd to Star De Mohaison in Royal & SunAlliance, jumped poorly, was last as they came down the hill, and was 21 lengths down 2 out.
15 March 2006 "If he’d have jumped he’d have won, its as simple as that. And if it was a Gold Cup over an extra 2 furlongs, he’d still have won, even though he jumped so poorly." Paddy Brennan, jockey
PU in 2006 Scottish GN
Missed 2006-07, and 2007-08 seasons
In comeback race, beaten 8 lengths by Possil & Mon Mome after making a mistake at the last, and running on one pace.
Wasted half an hour looking for the Egerton quote when he said he only had one bullet with the horse. Google is crap.
Is entered in the Welsh National.
OR rating was lowered 10lbs to 142 during absence, and then raised 1lb after the Possil race.
Bullet is the Gold Cup?
(Don’t answer, that was a rhetorical question.)