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520 Haydock Fireback (nap)
520 Haydock Eton Forever
400 Catterick Amir Pasha
400 Catterick Spring BreezePowered by Linux
Castle Sporting Services – please Google
With thanks to Billion for the link……only £6!
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Hi Billion…been away for a week hence not much activity on my part however did you notice…
Wednesday 19th May
4.55 Goodwood Class 4 Handicap 8 runners
Brett Vale Top Weight and Formcast 78
Won 22/1
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You could try consecutive doubles and/or trebles!
Hi
Nathan
You could well be right by trying this idea of
trabbas
‘s as multiple tool but with 11 selections today how can you bring it down to a workable number?
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I haven’t researched CDs to any great extent but have noticed in the past that (CD,BF) appears to yield some good winners.
There is some logic to it inasmuch as a runner which was considered ready to win is now returning to a course and distance where it was previously successful.Powered by Linux
Interesting, Billion……
Consistency seems to be the key-word here with top four placings over the last three outings being more relevant than the result of the last race alone. Winners LTO are unlikely to provide much in the way of value.
In fact, I’ve never made any money betting in non-handicaps despite conventional wisdom suggesting this is the only way to go!
This sounds like an interesting book…..are there any stats relating to profitability in handicaps and field sizes, both of which are important to me and would encourage me to invest in the book?Powered by Linux
Hello, Billion…trust you are in good form!
Three recommended services.
1) £48 per 10 Issues
2) £30 Per 5 Issues (cheaper per issue for longer subscriptions)
3) £12 per 4 Issues (ditto)All are an excellent read….much more than just a tip sheet.
Curiosity makes me ask you
elartero
not who they are but
How Much Do they Cost?
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MrE….
Many thanks for your recent contributions…they have been a joy to read and there is much we can all learn from your experience.
Enjoy your timely and well-earned break and I’m sure we all look forward to your safe return.:D Thanks guys, that raised a smile…. and I’m sober this morning Matron, I wonder if you can say the same….
It may appear that I’ve taken over this thread for the moment, that is not the intention, this is Billion’s thread and I’m just passing through….. the point of so many postings is that I will be long gone again pretty soon and I’m trying to cram it all into an egg cup before I go….. the fact that I’m gonna sod off again soon might sound a bit vague, but it aint…. the reason I popped in for a visit was to check up on old friends, it was never my intention to stay….. I take a break during April to let the Flat settle down, I still have the odd few small bets, but serious betting takes a back seat until I get warmed up and those GG’s get a bit of sun on their backs…. my betting starts to gear up because that is when my supply of selections start to get more plentiful…. it’s what a friend of mine used to call his "Golden Period"…..so, and I’m not meaning to sound crass, but I spend a lot of time on other sites from which I gain my betting materials….. you will all need tools to do a proper job, you can’t hammer a nail into a block of wood using a stick of celery, you have to get the appropriate tools…. I have looked over this site and there appears to be nothing here that can help me, nobody is tipping or making a system work (present company accepted), so I have to spend my time furkling over the ‘net to find the tools and selections to enable me to be successful at my job of trying to take money from the bookies…… once again, I will post about that later if you remind me….. but please accept my apologies if I go MIA, you know the reason….. Matron can get hold of me anytime and I’ll pop back from time to time….. but I aint gone yet, so I’ll keep posting and hope you all find it a help…..
MrE
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bet365
If you select more than one horse in a race the betting slip gives you the opportunity to stake to win a certain amount and the stake amount is automatically generated.
Other bookies may do the same but combined with Best Odds Guaranteed this is, I think, an excellent option.
Well done, bet365!Powered by Linux
Billion wrote:
Looking at The Mail today I was unable to find a Formcast rating of 78 coupled with a single second rated 77 or do I need to go to "SpecSavers" for an eye test?
This situation I feel elcartero must have faced before and so I ask "Do you put this down as a blank betting day? as maybe there are many to come or is this going to be a frustrating and common sequence?"
Your eyes are OK, Billion….nothing clear cut; a blank betting day like many Mondays (and Tuesdays come to that..I seldom have a bet before Wednesday).I have just looked at Time Form which is proving just as awkward with many of the second rated 4* selections doubling up.
Timeform appear to prioritise the ratings in the summary below the racecard and taking the top two of the three seems to work for me. Having said that, performance was poor yesterday on the selected races.Have you elcartero any idea how two top rated from different sources would perform i.e. Formcast 78 coupled with say R.P.R or Massey should they differ?
Have checked results against RPR and Massey only sporadically and they don’t appear to offer any significant benefit but I would be delighted to be proved wrong.Powered by Linux
Excellent post, Pompete…..Couldn’t agree more!
Hi Billion, while I understand that it maybe necessary to avoid certain types of races to cut down the total number of races played or the time taken to study them in addition to types of races that are unprofitable. I would suggest that this can only reasonable be done after a suitable large sample of races of all types had undergone an analysis.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that the above mentioned races should be played and I have no idea whether as a group they are profitable or not but then, if I may say so – neither do you, at this moment in time.
Although again clearly, it is not for me to tell others what to do I am of the view that there are potentially plenty of profitable systems out there that people have prematurely given up on due to not exposing them to a rigorous analysis. I do appreciate that the collecting of data can be time consuming and in some cases laborious, boring even but turning a profit has never been easy and in my view to do so the groundwork is essential.
Sorry, to bang on about this and sound as if I’m preaching, that is not my intention.
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Billion wrote:
Is Class 4+ something of a normal ruling for yourself?
Yes indeed….Interestingly, my top-two rated rarely provide a forecast as will be noted from my earlier post.
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In the absence of Formcast Ratings for Sunday racing I checked Timeform Top Two Rated from the Oddschecker site against my selected races:
Handicaps of 10 or fewer runners.
Class 4 or better.
No other filters were applied.330 Stratford
Pickamus won 9/4
Baren de Doc345 Ascot
Fresh Air and Fun
Soulard won 2/1355 Wincanton
Sou’wester won 3/1
Bollitree Bob420 Ascot
Briery Fox won 11/4
KnowhereNo other bets
Yes, I know it’s only one isolated day’s racing but it may be of interest to those who prefer not to buy the Daily Mail or wish, like me on this occasion to have a small wager on a Sunday!
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elcartero
, clarification.
In accord with postings so far I agree both Handicap & non handicap races should be considerations and am sorry if that was not clear. The only races eliminated from consideration are: –
Amateur/Ladies/Apprentice & Sellers.
I do wonder about NH Novice/Maidens & Claimer races
Thoughts regarding these are most welcome.
No…I eliminate these races as well as those already mentioned above…I should mention that I don’t consider races of class 5 or worse.
Second rated i.e. Formcast 77 I would have thought must be a stand alone and not joint as you say.
There are very few standalone 77s so I defer to the expertise of the SP Forecast compiler to determine which I will select but as I said before, analysis of results may prove me to be entirely wrong.
I think it is all adding up to a reasonable set of system rules . . .
so far!
I just cannot square the circle with regard to
Pompete
‘s suggestion re sellers but perhaps as suggested a separate log for these is the answer, it is so strange how one person can make things work and yet others cannot.
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Couple of points, Billion…
Limiting your selection media to handicaps would normally overcome the problem of insufficient form to assess a rating….I suppose All-Aged Stakes would be a qualifier; I certainly have had some satisfactory outcomes from such races.
The question of jt and co-rated 77s is more problematic.
Someone less lazy than myself would probably have analysed the outcomes and come up with a satisfactory conclusion.
I personally prefer both selections to appear in the first 4 of the betting forecast…if more than 2 then abandon the race as a betting opportunity.
But some might say, with some validity, that the highest weighted 77 should accompany the 78.
Perhaps a contributor of a statistical persuasion might be sufficiently interested in the subject to perform such an analysis over a reasonable period of time.Powered by Linux
Thread developing nicely after a slow start…just a few thoughts to set the cat amongst the pigeons…
Not too keen on filters as I believe the ratings and betting forecast compilers have taken many of those factors into account, however I would set an upper limit of 10 runners.
Handicaps only (no apprentices/conditionals/amateurs/ladies/sellers/nurseries etc).
Ignore second top rated selections (77) at your peril. I like having two selections running to win and with the advent of ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ one will often drift and oblige at a ‘working man’s price’.
Worth spending a few minutes each day after racing marking off the results in the Mail to discover where Formcast is hitting the target but as we are on the cusp of the seasons it is a difficult time for any compiler to be at his most accurate.
Just my twopenny’s worth to hopefully extend the debate.
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