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Perhaps you should write a book
MrE
, after all there is a few bob to be made there.
Billy's Outback Shack
Patience Matron, control that urge….. I have to try and get this thing on systems and staking finished first…. are you trying to work me to death….
OK guys, I’m trying to cover so much ground in such a short time, if I have skipped anything that you might wanna know about, just give a little whistle… I answer to the name of Rover…..
Here we go then…… any systems, method or tipster MUST be analysed to level stakes… that word always upsets me because it contains the word "anal"….. mmmm…. funny sense of humour I suppose…. lol….. only when you pull it all back to level stakes can you truly ascertain the reality of any given results…. it is imperative that you remove the bullshit factor of any results shown using a staking plan….. that fact alone will send most of the well thought of systems straight into the rubbish bin…. and that’s where they belong….. am I at all concerned when making that statement???…. not at all…. any system, free or paid for MUST hold its own at level stakes, it doesn’t need to make a profit, it needs to at least break even…. if you have a system that can do that, your halfway there…..
The very basics that we need to make this game worthwhile is a decent ROI….. 10% is the absolute minimum that we require, that’s the bottom line…. the pro’s that I know are expecting around 15%… we are not pro’s by any stretch of the imagination, we wouldn’t be here if we were…. so 10% absolute minimum for us (preferably to level stakes)…. from this point we can establish a springboard to advance……
S/R (Strike Rate) is a different kettle of fish entirely, this is for each person to decide because some punters can stand longer losing runs than others….. I can take a losing run of 15 if my winners are at around 12/1, but it’s absolute b****x to expect me to have a losing run of 15 only to end up with a 4/1 winner….. can’t make a profit with that sort of crap, so you really have to take stock and be honest with yourselves….. forget clouds with silver linings…. this is the real world….. from personal experience, I would expect (and accept) losing runs of 15 if the AVERAGE price of my winners are 7/1, but I would not expect that losing run to happen much more that once in a quarter…. I really do expect miracles from any system/tipster or service that I follow….. it doesn’t matter whether its a paid for service or a free service, it MUST be profitable because its carrying my hard earned money….. I am a hard taskmaster.,… the service makes me money or its discarded without a second thought….. I’m not here for anyone else’s benefit, just my own…. I must and will survive at all costs…. hard, yes…. but there’s no other way if you want to be successful…..
So your looking for an ROI of at least 10% and a S/R suitable for your particular system…. I would suggest that you look for a system that returns you about 20% (1 winner in 5 selections) providing those selections average out at about 4/1….. you will be surprised at how much this really narrows the field and will make a large percentage of supposedly "good" systems look useless…. but be honesty with yourselves, that’s exactly what they are…. useless….. I’ll stop now cos it’s Friday night and I’ve shifted a few drinks down my neck, but all this is as it is exactly how you should look at any system/ method that you follow…. you must be ultra critical and ultra hard….. you have to, after all, it’s YOUR money that your throwing away…… g’night guys, I’m knackered now…. catch you tomorrow……
MrE
So,
MrE
, I see you are starting to build a fan base . . . . .
where will it all end?
I for one do appreciate what you are doing and am sure once the dust has settled and it has ALL been digested I shall probably take up stamp collecting
Billy's Outback Shack
Top stuff
MrE
very informative
I was thinking the same as Billion, I can visualise all this in a book.
I was thinking the same as Billion, I can visualise all this in a book.
Please, don’t encourage him!
Had a few drinks?
More like a few bottles of champagne.
Regards – Matron
The original question to
MrE
related to why he thought level stakes was only for the novice and now we are being treated to a master class.
My tip to ALL is don’t just read it but read it all again and again because each time I do I am finding something with more substance and validity that I either had missed or could not digest on first or second reading.
Billy's Outback Shack
Thanks guys, that raised a smile…. and I’m sober this morning Matron, I wonder if you can say the same….
It may appear that I’ve taken over this thread for the moment, that is not the intention, this is Billion’s thread and I’m just passing through….. the point of so many postings is that I will be long gone again pretty soon and I’m trying to cram it all into an egg cup before I go….. the fact that I’m gonna sod off again soon might sound a bit vague, but it aint…. the reason I popped in for a visit was to check up on old friends, it was never my intention to stay….. I take a break during April to let the Flat settle down, I still have the odd few small bets, but serious betting takes a back seat until I get warmed up and those GG’s get a bit of sun on their backs…. my betting starts to gear up because that is when my supply of selections start to get more plentiful…. it’s what a friend of mine used to call his "Golden Period"…..so, and I’m not meaning to sound crass, but I spend a lot of time on other sites from which I gain my betting materials….. you will all need tools to do a proper job, you can’t hammer a nail into a block of wood using a stick of celery, you have to get the appropriate tools…. I have looked over this site and there appears to be nothing here that can help me, nobody is tipping or making a system work (present company accepted), so I have to spend my time furkling over the ‘net to find the tools and selections to enable me to be successful at my job of trying to take money from the bookies…… once again, I will post about that later if you remind me….. but please accept my apologies if I go MIA, you know the reason….. Matron can get hold of me anytime and I’ll pop back from time to time….. but I aint gone yet, so I’ll keep posting and hope you all find it a help…..
MrE
MrE….
Many thanks for your recent contributions…they have been a joy to read and there is much we can all learn from your experience.
Enjoy your timely and well-earned break and I’m sure we all look forward to your safe return.:D Thanks guys, that raised a smile…. and I’m sober this morning Matron, I wonder if you can say the same….
It may appear that I’ve taken over this thread for the moment, that is not the intention, this is Billion’s thread and I’m just passing through….. the point of so many postings is that I will be long gone again pretty soon and I’m trying to cram it all into an egg cup before I go….. the fact that I’m gonna sod off again soon might sound a bit vague, but it aint…. the reason I popped in for a visit was to check up on old friends, it was never my intention to stay….. I take a break during April to let the Flat settle down, I still have the odd few small bets, but serious betting takes a back seat until I get warmed up and those GG’s get a bit of sun on their backs…. my betting starts to gear up because that is when my supply of selections start to get more plentiful…. it’s what a friend of mine used to call his "Golden Period"…..so, and I’m not meaning to sound crass, but I spend a lot of time on other sites from which I gain my betting materials….. you will all need tools to do a proper job, you can’t hammer a nail into a block of wood using a stick of celery, you have to get the appropriate tools…. I have looked over this site and there appears to be nothing here that can help me, nobody is tipping or making a system work (present company accepted), so I have to spend my time furkling over the ‘net to find the tools and selections to enable me to be successful at my job of trying to take money from the bookies…… once again, I will post about that later if you remind me….. but please accept my apologies if I go MIA, you know the reason….. Matron can get hold of me anytime and I’ll pop back from time to time….. but I aint gone yet, so I’ll keep posting and hope you all find it a help…..
MrE
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elcartero
has said in all and I can add no more other than to say any thread is "open house to ALL"
Billy's Outback Shack
I’m trying to make one post link into another in an effort not to miss anything out, I don’t want to jump from one subject into another…. I think the last post mentioned the correct TOOLS to do the job, these are the tools that I recommend…..
More than one selection method (I personally have six)….
Selection method should really have no more than two system based selections…. there is a reason for this, and it probably flies in the face of a lot of punters, but if the truth be known, there are NO systems that can continue year after year, most systems are short-lived or rely on stupid staking plans to keep them afloat…. I would think that a lot of you guys have spent hundreds of hours traipsing all over the ‘net checking out the RP, Massey, Daily Mail etc…. it’s not that any system derived from those places are useless, they’re probably pretty good over the short term, but taken over time they will ultimately cost you money….. if a system is any good, it will be snapped up and you’ll never get a decent bet on thereafter….. I’ve got 400+ systems from over the years…. they’re all crap….. most new systems are only designed to part you from your money….. you might be able to find two that go cap in hand with your style of betting, but you won’t find much more than that….. so that’s two system based methods, that leaves you with other peoples personal selections…. paid for and otherwise….. now this really is a swamp……
Up to about two years ago, perhaps a bit longer on reflection, I would NOT have anything to do with tips that had to be paid for, I classed all paid for tipsters as bogheads…. but I personally went to see two of them at their homes and talked to them quite a lot, and I began to understand why they charge….. its the hours they put in…… they work 7 days a week, can’t have a break because they need to get the tips out to you before midday… they work the evening before to get the shortlist ready and then again in the morning to check going, n/runners and bookies prices….. and this is 7 days a week with no frigging holidays…. most of ’em have no more than about 50 customers, and if you times that by £40 (average price) that gives ’em £2K a month…. they can have that guys, especially for 7 days a week and no holidays throughout the year….
Now the big boys that charge mega bucks I stay well away from, not only are they outa my price range, but I also don’t trust ’em at all….. they boast that they have a month or 2 months on the Adriatic on their luxury holidays, but you still get your tips every day…. how come when they’re probably p***ed and sunburnt…. yeah, you guessed it, they using a stand-in to pick the selections outa the Daily Mirror… and I aint paying £100’s for a reserve to pick horses that I’m sticking money on…… so you see, it’s a very dodgy position to get yourself in…. but it’s needed…. you need TOOLS…. in my case I have no system selections whatsoever (unless the place I get selections from are using a system)…. I use two "Paid for" services which are excellent, and the other 4 are all available for free, and these I find are really astounding….. they each make more money per month that I could on my own… and I’m embarrassed to admit that, if memory serves me correct, the WORST of these "freebies" is making a minimum of 20pts profit a month….. utterly astounding…. I thought I was good, but I aint THAT good…. lol….. so there’s the first compliment to your toolbox…. the selections……
The other tools are Money Management….. this is various staking plans that you will need to make the most out of your bank without blowing the lot…. this is quite an extensive subject because it requires you to pigging listen and take note…. because, if you are successful, you will struggle to get your bets on at the price you need to keep your head in front….. its no bloody good whatsoever when your staking requires you to put £20 on a selection at 16/1 and your bookie will only give you £5 @ 8/1….. sounds OK, but it aint cos all your planned betting goes out the window and you lose VALUE…. and VALUE = PROFIT…..
And the final tool is BOTTLE…. discipline… call it what you like, but you’ll need it in spades… I can’t teach it, YOU have to master it…. but I know that if you get the Money Management right, the Bottle should remain unbroken….. later guys…..
MrE
He we are again
MrE
.
You have given us both youre time and your knowledge for FREE which in this day and age is quite something.
To be very honest I must say for me this is only a fun thing, a pastime, hobby, call it as you will and I have NO aspiration beyond enjoying my retirement and therfefore I cannot say I am willing/able/capable of implementing ALL the lessons you have provided for us but what I can say is you have made me take a long hard look at myself, my style and my approach.
No, I will not change it all but can and will change some aspects and hope I will be a better punter for making those changes.
Thank-you
Billy's Outback Shack
Thanks Billion, betting is a personal thing and one must do with it as they see fit….. if my ramblings have just helped a little bit, then I’m a happy bunny, but I really don’t expect anybody to take any notice….. I know that 20 years ago, I would have ignored it all myself and put it down as the inane ramblings of a nutter….
It was your act of dredging the archives that tempted me to write again, I had no idea that I was pumping stuff out on this forum way back pre 2003…. time flies…… yes, it takes time to write this guff, but that isn’t too bad if it’s only going to be once in every 7 years…. that makes my next visit about 2017…… I wonder!!!……
I am like most of the other guys on here or any other site, it’s not the writings of the inept that interests me, it’s about who can supply the most profitable tips, thats what its all about….. so I spend most of my time trying new areas and different forums to see what the better ones are like, bloody hell, there are some outstanding guys out there and providing you have the tools and your not afraid to try everything, there’s a lot of money to be made…..
I’ve only got about two or three more postings to make and then the epistle is ended….. I want to cover staking… and then show you the different avenues that I travel (with my betting), I give everything a try because there’s always "bitz and pieces" to be collected every way you turn, they are throwing money at you from all directions…. you have got to give ’em all a go, again, I’ll cover that later….. many thanks for all the replies Billion, it’s appreciated….. down to the last gasp now……
MrE
On and on and on….
now we get down to the nitty gritty that I think everybody has been waiting for, but I feel that you may be disappointed…. it’s STAKING…..
There are hundreds of staking plans but very few good ones…. and rather than refer to them as staking plans, its more comfortable to look upon it as planned betting or money management, because that is what its all about…. We have already ascertained that our method must be sustainable to level stakes, so at this point we take our total bank and we divide it into two…. this gives you a "working" bank and a "reserve" bank….. this is your insurance that you will never blow your bank because it is paramount that your bank be offered the fullest of protection….. so we are only going to play with the "working" bank…. you will always have a reserve bank to fall back on if your selection methods turn sour…..
As has already been said somewhere on this forum, the best form of betting is one that compounds and grows itself with no effort on your part, this is our "Planned betting" route….
Assuming that you have a £1000 bank, your "working" bank is going to be £500…. the bets will be at 1% per point on all your bets…. in this case it’s £5 per point…. but in this case we are going to use what is called "The Escalator" style stake…. this is one where you go up our down the escalator and stake accordingly at the win/loss of 10points, at which time you increase the stakes by the profit/loss incurred….. not difficult to put into action, but murder to put into words….. but let me try…..We start off with £500 bank and a £5 (1%) stake…. when you have WON 10pts (£50), you revalue your bank which will be £550 and then start betting using a 1% stake which would now be £5.50….. NEVER drop your stake, this is a "ratchet" style staking….. that bit is easy because you just change your bet size at every 10pt gain….. but what if the selection loses????… it’s EXACTLY the same, as if looking in the mirror….. if your losing, you are going down the escalator, you already KNOW that the selection method makes a profit at levels, so you know that your not chasing losses, you are just managing your betting bank to get the best out of it….. so on a losing run, you do the same….. so, if you LOSE 10pts, you still increase the takes by 50p the same as if you had won 10pts…. and you keep betting at that level until you reach the + 10pt mark and then continue as normal….. whatever happens in between, your stakes will go UP, but the must NEVER come down…… believe me, if your system works at level stakes, your profits will rocket using this method…. and the risk is not that great, your only risking an extra 50p or a £1 if you have a losing run….. and if you grab value bets like I’ve told you, it’ll be a cake walk………. in the follow up email I will explain how it works for me and how I think you should approach it…..
As an aside, when your "working" bank has doubled from £500 to £1000, you need to take the £500 profit and divide that into two… then put half into your "reserve" bank so that you now have two bank each consisting of £750 and then start again with 1% of you "working" bank….. this insures that even if you lose your "working" bank at anytime, at least you can start off again from where you left off instead of starting from rock bottom again….. I personally don’t do that, I’m too long in the tooth…. I take my profit at 6 monthly intervals and I spend it on holidays etc….. I start EVERY year off with exactly the same bank because any winnings are duly spent……
MrE
Please accept my apologies for these rapid postings, but it’s almost time for me to go…..
I wanted to tell you how I hold my head above water without ever risking losing my shirt….. it’s my Portfolio…. it’s massive…. it means that I can bet in £2 and £5 units quite easily because I have so many things covered…. I plan to make 10pts per month from any service that I use, if it doesn’t make me 10pts a month, out it goes…. at present I have a Portfolio of 15 and I’m always looking and adding to or replacing, but just think about that for a minute, that 15 methods each producing a minimum of 10pts a month (most of ’em do 20pts+ a month easily), so your looking at a minimum of 150pts a month, that’s £1500 a month if you bet in tenners…. and it’s the other guys that do most of the work, I just stick the bets on…..
You have to understand me here because these are not all to do with horse racing…. I am an absolute frigging nut when it comes to the numbers, and it helps to have a daughter that’s in the micro processing game…. I just love these RNG’s, why everybody finds them so difficult is beyond me, I make a nice income from those…. so without putting a full list in front of you, this is the sort of stuff that I’ve done this year, and I only play the numbers games for £1 and the horses for £5…. anything in between gets played for anything in between….
I play the horses (about 6 methods at present), the dogs (one method), the I make a fair bit at pinching the bookies bonuses (if they offer ’em I’ll take ’em), most of these (not all) are done through football….. I do the football myself laying the draws….. then I trade at the footy too, that’s a nice slow but steady earner…. then there’s the Betfair XGames, Oh boy, do I love them, not from the backing or laying side, but the trading opportunities are bloody awesome….. guys, I promise you, if you have the time and the discipline, there are more ways to make money than you can shake a stick at….. and the great thing is, with such a varied portfolio, they can’t all lose, one carries the other, the bonus comes when the whole gamut drops in place at the same time, those are better orgasms than you get at sex…. well, they are at 67…. lol…..
I’ve got one more post left in me, I’ll probably put that on tomorrow….. if you have any questions or summat that is unclear, just ask quickly….. if I’m not around, ask Matron, he’ll get any messages to me….
MrE
Just as I am about to hit the road you put up a double posting and I have not got the time to read it until later.
A quick scroll and "IT" lept of the page . . . SEX AT 67, now I am not about to make any comment but oh boy
MrE
I will not be surprised if one or two of the Viagra brigade will want you to start another thread
I have been waiting the Q & A session but as you have opened the door I will quickly ask . . .
During the Formcast thread you suggested 7f and 2m 5f max distances. Is this something you suggest all the time or simply if testing ratings or just to reduce the selection numbers.
I’m off to the land of WiFi and dongle so if I don’t ever post you again I trust you have a fruitful summer betting but don’t forget the sex! Oh yeh, I hope your back stands up to the rigours . . . . .
Billy's Outback Shack
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