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Back in the summer of 2003 MrE posted a thread headed What Staking Plan ? ? and it is worth a few minutes going back and having a read of it.
mal1964 was only questioning the validity of staking plans the other week and maybe the same thread could answer a few questions for him.
MrE however stated within the exchanges that in his opinion "Level stakes are for the novices and tipsters wanting to proof themselves"[/color:94uc1d7u]
Leaving out the tipsters because level stakes are much about the best rule of thumb I can think of for them and perhaps the only one.
But MrE do you really still think levels are only for the novice or over the years have your thoughts moderated?
You did suggest in the Nigel Taylor thread a 25% 75% win place split so I am guessing you do still operate various staking plans and therefore would like to ask not only you but other readers what they think of target staking vs levels.
What I mean by "target" staking is staking to win a specific amount (target), I believe this is a form of stake management and requires smaller stakes on the riskier long odds selections.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion….. staking is a very hot potato….. there’s many a bust up when discussing the various plans because people few them differently….
There are very few good staking methods, most plans are really stupid (and by stupid I mean risky)….. too late for me to rabbit on about staking tonight, but I’ll try and put my point across tomorrow sometime…..
MrE
‘morning
MrE
.
I do agree that what staking plans I am aware of fall into the most risky!
I suppose when you say level stakes is mainly for the novice is perhaps because it is the kindest of all plans and the most simple to implement and
I do like simple
.
I also have found the target or aim falls into the "kindest" category and does not lead you down the path to the poor house.
You say "Staking" is a hot potato but without discussion how will we ever learn and progress and I am sure all member/readers will have a view and may disagree with some or maybe all aspects but the remainder I hope will have an open mind.
Billy's Outback Shack
I am sure there must be a simple mathmatical equation for staking two horses to win a specified amount, can anyone help.
Example: Horse No1 at 6/4 and Horse No2 at 5/2 with say a clear profit required of £5 no matter which horse wins.
Billy's Outback Shack
I have got an old spread sheet somewhere that will do that for you – only two selections though.
You will need Open Office or Excel.
If you want a copy then, I can send you a copy to your email address – I will have a delve.
Regards – Matron
You do sure get around this forum
Billion
. Have you bought yourself a bike or maybe a horse to make it easier.
You mentioned in another post this book David Duncan’s book
Complete Manual of Racing & Betting Systems
.
I have his
Winning Horse Racing Formula
which has a chapter devoted to staking plans. He points out that no matter what the plan, they basically fall into two groups either raising or lowering the stake after a
winner
or raising or lowering the stake after a
loser
. The profit or loss depends on how the sequence of winners/falls, where as with level stakes the profit or loss is the same regardless of the sequence.
There are other schools of thought. One is to stake more the shorter the price of the horse. This was championed by Clive Holt whose reasoning was that the shorter the price the more likely it was to win. He described it as the nature of the game. For instance if the horse he fancied was 1/1 he would bet £500 but £10 on a 50/1 shot. The profit was the same so was a form of target betting.
The other approach is the bigger the price the more is staked as in the punters opinion the bookies are giving money away and the word VALUE is shining like a beacon.
As for the above two there is always a halfway house approach. £500 on a 1/1 shot but £20 on the 50/1 giving double the profit, This takes advantage of staking a larger amount on the more likely winners but giving a nod in the direction of value.
There are some staking plans that are horribly complex and require as much time as making the selections in the first place.
My personal favourite approach is compounding, described as the eighth wonder of the world. if it been good enough for the banks for a few hundred years then it’s good enough for me. Simply stake a percentage of the bank on each selection and the stake automatically increases or decreases in line with the bank.
If you could just increase the bank by 1% a day a lot of money could be made. Though that sounds easy it is very hard to achieve which just shows how hard it is to make a profit from betting.
Billion wrote
Example: Horse No1 at 6/4 and Horse No2 at 5/2 with say a clear profit required of £5 no matter which horse wins.
There are a lot of free Dutching calculators around, just a case of finding one that Dutches to a target
Off the top of my head:-
Convert the prices to percentages
6/4=40%
5/2=29%Add together 69% and take from 100% = 31%
Divide the 31% by the target profit £5 = 6.2
divide the 40% by 6.2 = £6.45 (stake for 6/4)
divide the 29% by 6.2 = £4.68 (stake for 5/2)Total stake £11.13
If 6/4 wins returns £16.13 minus total stake = £5 profit
If 5/2 wins returns £16.38 minus total stake = £5.25 profit.That seems a bit long winded, might be easier just to stick a fiver on each.
bet365
If you select more than one horse in a race the betting slip gives you the opportunity to stake to win a certain amount and the stake amount is automatically generated.
Other bookies may do the same but combined with Best Odds Guaranteed this is, I think, an excellent option.
Well done, bet365!Powered by Linux
No bike
DOLUS
but the mind is always racing.
Thank you for such an informative answer and certainly the equation will take some digesting. but with a little luck I might get there, although I do think my request was for a simple method
I agree with you
elcartero
, well done bet365 but sadly they do not always have the best price but must say they are my favourite.
I will be in touch
Matron
, thanks.
Billy's Outback Shack
Trawling through posts from 2003…. you must have a lot of time on your hands Billion….
My thoughts haven’t changed much since those days though, I’ve used and studied other staking plans in the interim and there are some real shockers out there that will relieve you of your money in rapid time, as much as you may be tempted by the figures, these need to be avoided unless you have unlimited funds…. and if you were in that position, you wouldn’t need to bet in the first place….. I have 3 guidelines that I like to take with my betting, they are…..
a) Methods of Selection….
b) Staking….
c) Discipline…..Discipline is the hardest to master, I drop booboo’s nearly every week, but if you stick to a) and b), discipline should follow along quite nicely…. so that brings us onto staking…..
Level stakes is admirable when first starting to bet, and it is paramount when checking tipsters results….. Do NOT allow yourself to be sucked in by large £ signs that are backed up using a staking plan, spend a couple of hours studying their results and bring it all back to level stakes…. that is the ONLY level playing field, if a tipster/system cannot survive at level stakes, it will ultimately die if using a staking plan….. so first get your profit to levels…..
Only when you know that the tipster/system can survive at levels do you look towards an adequate staking plan…. a staking plan is to ENHANCE an already profitable method of selection, if you can make 2pts a week with levels, you could make that 5pts a week with the correct staking plan….. a staking plan can NOT turn a crap selection method onto a going concern but it can and will increase the amount won…. it really is most imperative that you plan your betting, do not enter into it blindly….. have a firm target set in front of you and a staking plan that is suitable and within your means….. you cannot just stick with level stakes if your selection method is profitable, you must take EVERY opportunity to enhance all income whilst still protecting yourself from any losses…… and to do all this you will need VALUE…… yes, I know its all been said before and everyone says "oh no, not again", but to beat the book, you MUST get value…… this is not some fantastic foray into mathematics, its plainly simple, so easy…… so get the staking plan of your desire, arm yourself with a decent selection method, make sure EVERY bet offers value…. and then just plod steadily along and enjoy an holiday paid for by Messrs Ladbroke or Willy Hill…..
You’ll probably want to know a bit more cos I can tell your keen, you must be if your looking back to 2003….. I’ll add some more to this a little later….. thats if your not getting bored……
MrE
Bored . . . . moi . . . never.
Keep them rolling
MrE
.
I am not looking for any kind of utopia, this is just a fun thing, my hobby, having said that I have always believed in being as best I can be.
I get my kick from seeing a plus sign not the amount.
You were very adept when saying how wrong you believe it to be when remaining with level stakes once having proven a system to be profitable and I had not viewed it this was before.
My dear old mum used to say "never put the cart before the horse" and so I think I may still have a long way to go as yet.
Thanks to all you good people for your response however I am sure there is still more to go.
Billy's Outback Shack
Before we progress any further (or should that be IF we progress any further) we really need to satisfy ourselves by what we/I mean by value…. I’m not one of these maths guys that get wound up with figures, I just need to ask myself if I’m satisfied with the odds that are offered when I go and place my bet….. for instance, I NEVER place a bet at under 2/1, I would need a 50% Strike rate to furnish a return at less odds than that…. I always take note of the various prices that are offered and compare them with the recommended price as given by the tipster (if a tipster is used), if its a system pick, I would look at the prices offered on Betfair or any comparison site such as Oddschecker….. so now I know at what price my selection should be…. if the price is around the 8/1 mark I am happy with that because my strike rate dictates that I need my winners at 4/1 to break even (1 in 5), so I doubled that to give me a guideline…. so 8/1 or over I strike the bet using BOG…..
Between 4/1 and 7/1 I’m happy with really, but I want to try and squeeze a bit of value if I can and I look to see if I can maybe squeeze another point out of it…. I look at the market on Betfair and if its drifting I will take the bet at BFSP…. remember, I’m happy with 4/1 or over, I just want to squeeze a few pips…..
If the lower prices show no value, in other words where the odds on offer aint worth risking the bet (usually between 2/1 and 4/1) I will place the bet at 2pts MORE than the price shown and put the bet in "keep" or "in running"….. you will be surprised just how many of these bets are matched at the bigger prices "in running"…. its not foolproof by any means, but it does mean that your backing a horse that should be 2/1 and your getting 4/1 for it…… you were willing to back it at 2/1 before the race started, so the fact that you can get the bet on at 4/1 is really good value….. and don’t be mistaken in thinking that because its drifted in running that the horse is falling back…. not so….. just sit back and watch a few races and see how many of your own selections are actually bigger in price AFTER the "off"…. that is another stab at a value bet and every little helps…..
I have also taken short prices and applied the MERDS style bet that was posted up many years ago…. thats "MrE’s Rolling Doubles"…. that turns two even money bets into a 3/1 bet….. these sorts of bets (as with the "in running" bets) are known as "Forcing Value" and should be considered after you’ve had some practice at it…. but its not hard to get to grips with….. you just need to modify it to your own particular Strike Rate…. the figures above relate only to my Strike Rate…..
OK, that’s what constitutes "value" betting to me, I don’t expect anyone to agree, but bear it in mind, it might just help you out in the future….. I will post later about the sort of strike rate and ROI that you should be achieving to be able to "fund" this hobby……
MrE
This is no hot potato
MrE
it is simply an education and by golly am I glad I asked the question in the first place.
I can’t wait for the next instalment.
Billy's Outback Shack
When looking for a tipster/system to follow, you need to bear in mind that as well as paying for the method of selection, you also have to bet them….. so you need to ascertain your limits/targets for betting purposes…. it is no good diving into a method that only covers the cost of the product without making any money yourself, we’ve all been down that road…. so with this in mind you need to be ultra critical in your analysis….. I will try and point out what I mean by using one of the very top systems that most reviews favour highly, all the big reviewers rate this as one of the best, I think its poor for the following reasons…..
The system requires you to play the "retrieval" game with your staking whereby when you get your winner, you actually make 1pt profit….. the system has a 97% strike rate and the maximum loss on any one day is 30pts….. OK, now analyse that a bit….. 3 days from 100 days you will lose 30pts for each day, that’s a loss of 90pts…. but the other 97days will produce a profit of 1pt per day, that’s 97pts…. subtract your lost 90pts from the Won 97pts and you’ve got a profit of 7pts…. and that’s after 100days…. now your not talking of a Return On Investment there, your investment on average can be around 10pts a day until you hit your winner, so that’s over 1,000pts staked for a return of 7pts…… Ouch!!!!…. and that’s one of the better systems…. I wouldn’t touch it with yours Billion…..
You have to look seriously at what the big boys are happy with, I’ve had the pleasure of meeting and chatting to some of ’em over the last 15 years, and I know what they expected from their betting….. the first thing to understand is that whatever you read or hear about to the contrary, making betting pay is NOT easy, its the hardest thing in the world to get right, that’s providing that your one of the lucky ones that can get it right….. the problem with most punters is that they over estimate how much they’ll make, then when they fall short, they will increase their stakes beyond what their banks can afford…. then disappointment and sometimes bankruptcy follows…. they have misunderstood how betting works and they have staked beyond their means….. bookmakers are accountants, they are not there for your benefit…. I have had many a run in with them over money that they owed me but never paid, if there’s a way out, they will wriggle through the loopholes….. when you try to place a bet of £50 on at 8/1 and they will only take a fiver off you, or they refuse your bet…. these are the things you have to be prepared for because at the end of the day, if you can’t get your bet accepted and you haven’t got time left to chase around other bookies to share the bet, the bet that pays for your holiday is wasted cos all you’ve got on is a fiver….. been there and done that and it aint funny….. there is an answer, its more than one bookie, more than one selection method, more than one staking plan and more than one bank…… this is Portfolio betting….. a bit late to continue this now, but I’ll go through what to look for in a Strike Rate and ROI at a later date…… hope this is what you want to hear….
I blame you for this Billion….. I only popped on to see if any of my old friends were still around….. and now you’ve got me rabbiting on and tripping over my tongue…… sorry about that….. your fault…..
MrE
I can accept the blame
MrE
after all I have been married for 47 years and known her for 53.
Well you’re here now and I for one will not let you get away whilst you are offering such valuable information.
RESPECT! I believe is the modern terminology.
Billy's Outback Shack
If the lower prices show no value, in other words where the odds on offer aint worth risking the bet (usually between 2/1 and 4/1) I will place the bet at 2pts MORE than the price shown and put the bet in "keep" or "in running"….. you will be surprised just how many of these bets are matched at the bigger prices "in running"…. its not foolproof by any means, but it does mean that your backing a horse that should be 2/1 and your getting 4/1 for it…… you were willing to back it at 2/1 before the race started, so the fact that you can get the bet on at 4/1 is really good value….. and don’t be mistaken in thinking that because its drifted in running that the horse is falling back…. not so….. just sit back and watch a few races and see how many of your own selections are actually bigger in price AFTER the "off"…. that is another stab at a value bet and every little helps…..
Hello there
Whilst I appreciate that you will back some winners at 4/1, does this method not mean that you are guaranteed to back every loser (because
all
losers get matched at 4/1 on Betfair at some stage) but miss some winners (because not all winners drift to 4/1)
Hi David….. yes, your so right…. and that’s the big pain in the butt, you miss winners but you NEVER miss a loser…. Oh how that hurts, but the pain only lasts a minute…..
I know that when I have a bet, I’m gonna bet these horses anyway, whether they win or lose….. if your following a tipster/system it’s always gotta be backed, all that I am trying to do is to squeeze a few more points in my favour…. if over the course of 20 winners I miss 5 of them at 2/1, then I’ve lost the opportunity to win myself 10pts….. but if, from the remaining 15 winners I am getting an extra 2pts from each, then those extra 30pts made (which are over and above the price I would have taken normally), then that still gives me 20pts more profit than I would have got even though I have missed 5 winners….. even if I missed 10 of those 20 winners at odds of 2/1 or less, I would have lost a possible 20pt profit, but I would still have made an extra 20pts from the remaining 10 winners anyway, so that would be no loss, no gain…..
I am not saying that it is a method that you (or Billion) should adopt, staking is a very personal thing, I was just pointing out that there is more than one way to obtain value…… to me, and again this is a personal thing…. I find that it is this extra value that keeps my nose in front….. I think that I can honestly say that, if I had to rely on SP alone, I would not be in profit….. and taking prices…. ouch!!!!…. how many times have I got that wrong….. I can only put down here the way that I bet and what works for me, but I will say something that is hard and fast….. ignoring the concept of value in whatever form you use it, will lead to disaster, to bet successfully, you MUST have an edge…. it doesn’t matter how small, but you must have an edge……
I hope the above explains it OK….. it’s not something that I recommend at all, it’s my own way of working and staking that keeps me in front….. I have my losing days/weeks/months the same as all of us….. but in 50 years betting I have NEVER lost my bank and I’ve had many a holiday in Spain, Italy and Hungary thanks to those nice bookies….. so I think that I’ve got something right….. it works for me…..
MrE
After receiving a response from David, I realise that there are a few other reading all this squitter that I’m writing about…. so just to let the members know, I’m not a young guy trying to make a name for himself…. I’m 67 years old and have been married for 45 years (Billion beat me on that score) and I do my fair share of losing as well as winning….. and I have been fortunate to associate myself with the "right" people over these years…..
A few years ago I needed a break from the horses, I have a daughter that works for computer programmers and I learned a few basics that showed me that RNG’s are not foolproof…. so to cut a long story short, I went and made £2K on Roulette…. bugger, was that boring or what…. I then went heavily into "bonus hunting" in the casinos and made over £6K, but that was in the easy days when the required playthrough was only £1500/£3000…. its shot to pieces now because the playthrough’s are a massive £8K…. but nonetheless, I made a few grand….. then, being a greedy sod, I tried my hand at chasing the Bookies bonus that all the bookies are offering (you can still do ’em now, there’s 100’s of ’em), I made another £2K from those too….. but there was a penalty to be paid, and did I suffer…. the bookies started "flagging" me and started closing my accounts down…. Betfred, Tote, 365, Laddies, all gone or at reduced bets…… so guys, there is always a downside to success…. you can overcome it, but I’ll go into that later…..
The latest thing that I undertook, started by chance…. a mate of mine paid to go on a trading seminar. On the second day his wheels broke down so he asked me to give him a lift…. the guys running the seminar let me stay as long as I sat at the back and kept my gob shut…. I only saw that second day and I was gobsmacked, I think that if I had had the full three days, I would surely have had an orgasm…. the information gleaned from that one day was awesome….. any of the old crowd on here will tell you what I think/thought about Laying, I frigging HATED it with a vengeance, it was lacking in that dreaded "V" word, I spat every time it was mentioned, but that day changed my hatred entirely…. I still hate laying for laying’s sake, but using laying as a tool for trading, now that’s a different matter….. but I want to save that for a later time…. I don’t want to rabbit on with all this in case I do a Houdini again (and that’s more than possible, I like to remain a free spirit)…..
This posting was just to give you an insight into the fact that all this stuff that I’m spouting about does come from personal experience, it’s not something that I’ve read in a book…. this is me….
MrE
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