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Big Zeb only has to jump round to win.
If you look at the 2008 QM as being a freak result, all of Master Minded form makes sense as a top notch but not starry two mile chaser. Timeform mid 170’s not mid 180’sIm not having that.Id have Well Chief in a match round cheltenham with big zeb every day of the week. Providing the chief is fit and well.As for MM,if PN sorts out whats bothering him..then again hed have too much for big zeb.On sheer jumping at 2mile pace around cheltenham alone you couldnt trust big zeb. I know you said if he jumps round he wins….but imo theres no way he could jump round and keep the jockey/horse partnership intact without at least 2 earth shattering blunders.One mistake at that pace usually kills you(remeber azertyuiop).
Im happy with my 20-1 Well Chief,just hope he gets there in one piece.
Id like to see tataniano and sizing europe both come under pressure to see what the response is before backing either.
Until then im happy with somersby.
My take on the main contenders imo for the champion are;
HURRICANE FLY: Year too early,also has to convince against older horses and outside his own country.Hype horse from the irish who crave another istabraq..an istabraq hes not.
SOLWHIT: Can see this fellow being a standing dish in the 2m 4f aintree hurdle ala Al Eile.Cheltenham may be a problem for him though,although i fancy if conditions are right and hes in touch 2 out…he could make them go.Sure to stay on up the hill too.
DUNGUIB: Class animal but deffo a year too early,would be folly to risk him in a champion in his first season hurdling.Should be a supreme nov hdl banker.
PUNJABI: Reigning champ but i feel a rather lucky champ.Everything fell in his lap for him but if the 3 jockeys on the leaders could ride the last 2 flights again then iv no doubt in my mind it wouldve been Binocular,CH,Punjabi in that order.Place claim this year at best.
CELESTIAL HALO: I see this running a big race,especially if the ground was against Binocular.If ruby conserves a little on him this year and kicks between the last 2 he will gallop on all the way to the line.
BINOCULAR: Many people thought he was champion hurdler in waiting 2009,but im sure he will atone in 2010.AP will be counting the days till this race as i think that day still irks him.Providing the horse is in good nick then i cant see past him…..unless the ground was bottomless.
Out of everything else i think GO NATIVE could be an interesting horse if he got his ground and a fast pace.Acts on the track and march may just be his time of year.
All in all id go BINOCULAR-CELESTIAL HALO 1-2.
Thats a good shout by the Henderson team imo.
I wonder if AP will hold onto Binocular for as long this time though at Cheltenham!! Celestial Halo looks in great nick this season and he will be doing all he can to burn Binoocular off,but if the bula is a small field i can see Binocular having an easy time of it. Cant have punjabi as i reckon both CH and Binocular should have finished in front in the champion. Punjabi is a "nearly" horse that got lucky in that everything went his way that day,but shouldnt be winning champions imo.
EDIT-If Celestial Halo runs in the bula obviously.
ps i reckon CH is an ew certainty come March.
Id have to be on Binocular…and i still believe if AP could ride the CH again there would be a different result.
If the pipes can get Well Chief to sandown in the same nick as sunday…even off levels i can still see him giving MM an almighty battle. Yes mahogany blaze was close up on sunday,master minded ran too free,hung etc etc….
Imo mahog. blaze was so close down to 3 things..ground,race sharpness and stable flying.He wont be that close to WC or MM again imo. Well Chief done that very very easily imo,he wasnt flat out and clinging on to the win….Murphy hardly laid the stick on him,just a little flick to keep him from idling in front….otherwise hands and heels.I havent watched the race back but i bet PB wasnt so lenient on MB in getting so close! Ive also a feeling that these days MM is just an in and out performer..and could be more out than in! At his best ie QMCC 2 years ago and tingle creek last year he is awesome…but his performance on sunday tells me that sometimes he doesnt fancy it anymore.
ps if it was me id leave Well Chief until the QMCC to run him again.
To me Kauto isnt the same horse round haydock,would love to see him win it for a 3rd time on saturday though.
To me you just have to look at his last 2 runs in this race(i know we could argue that this year he will be fresh compared to the last 2 years…..but MM was "fresh" too on sunday!).2years ago ED got as close to Kauto as he ever did and last year Kauto looked a shadow of his usual self.
I think especially if the ground is testing on saturday then Kauto may be in for a tough time of it round there.
James Willoughby made an excellent point today in the RP
Had the Hawk Wing/High Chaparral Derby been run in the same manner as this year’s renewal, would we all have been hailing Hawk Wing as the "second coming" after an easy victory? Almost certainly imo…
100% spot on mate imo.
Sea the stars can only beat whats in front of him though i suppose,but i think out of the last 5 Derby winners the only one at a lower standard imo was Sir Percy.
James Willoughby made an excellent point today in the RP
Had the Hawk Wing/High Chaparral Derby been run in the same manner as this year’s renewal, would we all have been hailing Hawk Wing as the "second coming" after an easy victory? Almost certainly imo…
100% spot on mate imo.
Sea the stars can only beat whats in front of him though i suppose,but i think out of the last 5 Derby winners the only one at a lower standard imo was Sir Percy.
I enjoyed studying this race – pretty exciting I must admit!
Was extremely keen for
Black Bear Island
as a brother to a super horse with a 5-5-0-0 good-to-firm record. Sadly, the change in ground has altered my confidence a little.
I’ll go ahead as planned, but British weather can go fornicate itself.
Im hoping for a Black Bear Island/Kite Wood reverse forecast in an ideal world
Purely cos thats my 2 antepost bets for the derby.
1.BEST MATE
2.BARATHEA
3.VIKING FLAGSHIP
4.KAUTO STAR
5.COOL GROUND
6.DUBAI MILLENIUM
7.BARTON BANK
8.INGLIS DREVER
9.DOUBLE TRIGGER
10.LOCHSONGJust missing out is ZAFONIC……just cos he dared beat BARATHEA in the 2,000guineas
Theres no doubt Denman ran flat but imo was still going to win when he came down(i believe he was just in the lead when he came down),i think hed have outstayed MDB.Denman was off the bit pretty early at cheltenham too and ran on. MDB is a dangerous opponent on a flat track when allowed to dominate.
Denman was also run off his feet on the ground and the track didnt exactly suit either imo.
All in all i think it would have been a workmanlike Denman win but for the fall(a bit like King Kauto behind snoopy loopy).
ps Findlay said after kempton the horse was "depressed",i just hope the fall doesnt shake him up too bad and set him back again.
Nacarat will lead imo along with Our Vic(would love to see a return to form,but unf. i think hes going the same way as My Way DS).If and when Denmans gets alongside them(hopefully about 4 or 5 out) he will run away with it while being chased in vain by Exotic Dancer(bridesmaid as usual).
ps MDB could be interesting back on a flat track.
I reckon the main worry would be how much restraint they ride him with,if they let him go about 5 out i think he will hammer them. If they hold onto him too long to look after him he may be caught flat footed on a track like aintree.
I think Denman done more than enough in the Gold Cup to suggest he should win this regardless of track/ground.
Anything evens or odds against is a great bet.
I think theres a lot of ifs and buts about nearly all the major players this year.
My Will- Has to be major doubts about him staying,jumping also suspect imo…..was also flattered in the Gold Cup imo as i believe if you ran the GC again without the first 4 then no way My will would win.
Butlers Cabin- Been talked up a good few times as a national winner but i think hes maybe not good enough,would be a decent ew punt but all the money that will pour in for AP to win means he wont have much appeal imo.
Black Apalachi- Won the becher in a bog but fell early last year when taken off his feet on better ground,wouldnt be too confident unless it was soft or worse tbh.
Hear the Echo-Far too underpriced imo,will stay but i think will run the sort of race Chelsea harbour ran last year.
Big Fella Thanks- Have major doubts about this one tbh,jumping suspect imo and also dont think hell stay.I also think its a year too early for him.
Comply or Die- The horse id love to see win but hasnt looked interested most of the season,obviously didnt want too much weight for this but ran so badly that i dont think fitness etc were to blame.Better last time though.Also the stats dont favour him.
That makes me think that Rambling Minster could be the one this year with a clear round,could be this years Comply Or Die,or we could be in for a big upset and a big priced horse could do it.
Is that all a fair assessment or am i just talking shoite