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Bear Ghylls @50s for this. Still a bit of 33s out there. Was on him for the Ballymore in ‘21 at 66s but his hurdling was sketchy to say the least but the way he came back to nearly nab BMG when he looked at one point that he was going to fall out the back of the tele showed he really relished them hill. He was a big shell of a horse then and according to Nicky Martin has really filled out. If he does take to fences he really could be a big player in this. Runs in the Colin Parker on Sunday, so may have some indication of my fate then. If he does manage to win I could see him shortening up to a 10s poke by Sunday afternoon.
Had a go on Kalanisi Star @50s. Won the Gowran bumper won by Yorkhill, Bob Ollinger and Journey With Me by 16 lengths on heavy. The second won next time out and was 3rd in a bumper at the Punchestown festival, ahead of James’s Gate. Same sire as Blazing Khal, out of a Zaffaran mare, so hopefully he can stay.
Completely concur with all of that, Ian. I rarely get stuck into a shortie as a rule but absolutely bang on the money with your example.
If The Bear does manage to take to fences – and his injury was too serious – he could take high rank. Both big imponderables but you can take a flyer at that price. Seen a schooling vid and an interview with Nicky Martin mentioned that dirtiest of words from the racing fraternity “machine”.
I’ve followed the hype and backed Jet Powered for the Supreme at enhanced odds of 27 a few months ago.
Taken a swing on Kalanisi Star for both the Ballymore and AB @50s. Won the now ‘celebrated’ bumper won by Yorkhill and Bob, with the second, Monbeg Park (beaten 16 lengths), winning next time out and was a respectable third at the Punchestown festival, finishing ahead of James’s Gate.
For the Mares Novice hurdle, Poetic Music is a fair price @33s. 6th in the bumper as a four year-old and already a listed bumper winner at the track.
Ha. I do get what you mean, honestly, Ian. Most of the value is squeezed out of the AP markets and you do have there’s a fair bit of sifting required to uncover what I think is a fair punt – it’s akin to going shopping at TK Maxx. A 9/4 shot for the Supreme this far out is not for me, Clive.
The Bear is entered to run at Carlisle on Thursday, so hopefully he jumps better than he hurdles!
Danke for the sage advice, Ian. I’ll go for the 50/1 poke, who on the scale of his hurdles form should be far shorter and you crack on with Waterville @7/2, who fell in off a mark of 99 lto.
I think Bear Ghylls is a huge price for the BA. Got plenty a flight wrong in the Ballymore and going round the final bend you could’ve forgiven him for falling out of the back of the tele but still managed to rally up the hill and nearly catch Bravemansgame.
Apparently he’s working really well and the lay-off might have done him good as he was a shell of a horse in his novice hurdling campaign.
50s is way too big.
I think Bear Ghylls is a massive play at 50s for the Brown Advisory. Really stayed up the hill in the 2021 Ballymore after clouting 3 and 2 out. Nicky Martin has said that the work riders are calling him a machine. If he takes to fences and the injury hasn’t left a mark then 50s is huge.
Playing Kalanisi Star in both the Ballymore and AB at 50s. Won the bumper that Bob Ollinger won a few years ago and the form of it and his PTP has been franked by a couple of horses in behind.
Quite like Poetic Music in the Mares Novice Hurdle at 33s. 6th in the bumper as a 4 year old and won the lister bumper at Cheltenham on NYD. 33s seems fair to me.
Well, I certainly didn’t expect the race to pan out like it did for Alpinista – certainly not swinging on the Billy Idol two furlongs out. Have to feel a bit got TT as the draw was probably his undoing. Absolutely chuffed that for once one of my ante-post longshot copped for a change (shameless aftertime klaxon, was on at 100s down to 60s on the machine). Got a decent looking treble with Constitution Hill and Allaho and a more audacious one with Bear Ghylls and Ahoy Senor to keep me hoping for the next few months.
Completely understand the pedantic nature of you both and it’s a habit of me using “out of”. I’ve had an internal discourse, resulting in a minor scolding.
Being out of Churchill, I’d have serious reservations about Vadeni getting the trip and the Eclipse form looks pretty suspect – Mishriff looks a few pounds short of his best this year and Lord North being only a length off the winner doesn’t add much substance to it. You’d like to think Luxembourg will improve for the trip but no juice in his price, especially with the 3 year old colt crop looking fairly ordinary. Alpinista looks rock solid and will love the long straight to wind her up. She’s beaten last year’s winner and third, the Oaks winner, the Ribblesdale winner and Vermielle winner and her family tend to improve with age. There may be one or two too good for her, who knows, but she’ll be hard to pass, that’s for sure. And if she does I’ll be puffing on a Montecristo in homage to Sir Mark!
I’m on Alpinista at various prices on the machine, from 100s down to 60s. I do think she has a very good chance but cannot be that confident in such an open race. The 3 year old colt form is very windy to say the least, especially the Derby and wouldn’t want to be taking a short price on any of those for that very reason. At the prices now I’d be tempted to have a Rod Laver on La Parisienne. Gave Nashwa a real fright in the Prix de Diane and ran a decent trial in the Vermeille after running into trouble. Relatively unexposed and could be in the shake-up if the cards fall right for her. Keeping everything crossed Alpinista can bring it home though.
Ginge and Jack, care to revise your opinion of Ahoy Senor? I’ve said from the outset this is Britain’s most talented 3 miler. BMG has less improvement in him; his jumping can’t be improved upon whereas there’s far more scope to squeeze a few more pounds out of AS. I think you both know that now too, which is nice.
