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Ditto the novice hurdles thread
Jonbon currently fav for the arkle
Sir Gerhard the turner’s
The nice guy the brown advisory
Gaillard du mesnil the NHCDefinitely my favourite division each year
The nice guy is very exciting but maybe not bred to be a chaser
I would worry about The Nice Guy if he goes chasing. Not many good chasers sired by Fame And Glory. Could throw a spanner in the Stayers Hurdle works though.
I’m on El Fabiolo for the Arkle and would be interested in Minella Cocooner for the BANC. He was a bit keen over hurdles but fences might back him off a bit and he should get 3 miles on the old course alright. He’s a year younger than The Nice Guy too.
For the Turners- Mighty Potter is a super looking horse but might go Arkle I suppose. I’d be interested in the expensive disappointment Classic Getaway, the sire’s course record notwithstanding, if he gets a wind op.
I like minella cocooner too GAG
He looks and is bred to be a chaser
The nice guy definitely isn’t bred to be so be interesting to see what he does. What he did last year was truly remarkable having been running in bumpers at the start of the season and winning the bartlett on just his second hurdles start. That marks him down as a serious talent.
A real shame what happened to Ginto as he’d have been a huge player too.
Mullins has so much ammo he could clean up in the novice hurdles and novice chases even more so than normal.
I have backed Jonbon in the Arkle, Three Stripe Life in the Turners and Journey With Me in the Brown Advisory.
Watch them all run in different races now!
“Watch them all run in different races now!”
That’s the trouble at this stage- it’s impossible, with a few exceptions, to say what will run where.
I think Bear Ghylls is a huge price for the BA. Got plenty a flight wrong in the Ballymore and going round the final bend you could’ve forgiven him for falling out of the back of the tele but still managed to rally up the hill and nearly catch Bravemansgame.
Apparently he’s working really well and the lay-off might have done him good as he was a shell of a horse in his novice hurdling campaign.
50s is way too big.
I wouldn’t touch these contests in October with your money, dear reader.
The ante-post book margins are a thousand percent and they’ve all got options every day of the Festival and before and after it too.
“Just say ‘no’ to an autumn ‘Fez Folio,’ kids!”
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Danke for the sage advice, Ian. I’ll go for the 50/1 poke, who on the scale of his hurdles form should be far shorter and you crack on with Waterville @7/2, who fell in off a mark of 99 lto.
That’s told me!
I’d better follow you in now, to ease the annoyance if it hoses up next March!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Ha. I do get what you mean, honestly, Ian. Most of the value is squeezed out of the AP markets and you do have there’s a fair bit of sifting required to uncover what I think is a fair punt – it’s akin to going shopping at TK Maxx. A 9/4 shot for the Supreme this far out is not for me, Clive.
The Bear is entered to run at Carlisle on Thursday, so hopefully he jumps better than he hurdles!
Over-rounds and value about individual horses is an interesting one.
I was a Point once way back in the 80s when field sizes were bigger and there was a 6/4 favourite in an 18-runner field and the margin was almost 200%.
“I’m taking that 6/4 – great value” said a shrewd punter.
“Nothing is value in a 200% book,” someone replied.
“Not true,” said the shrewdie: “There’s loads of horses priced up at 10/1 who should be 200/1 and this 6/4 fav should be ‘fours on,’ so it’s a cracking bet.”
The fav – helpfully – hosed up by half the track to illustrate his point.
You can get value in big-margin books – but it’s often needle in a haystack stuff, but nevertheless well worth it if you find it.
Anyway, I’ve had a bit of 50 – come on, The Bear!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Interesting little snippet caught “off mic” on Racing TV Xtra just now. Anthony Bromley just said no decision has yet been made about whether or not El Fabiolo goes chasing.
Gladders never misses a trick – any flies on him are paying top dollar rent.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It’s worth watching Xtra, as they occasionally leave the microphones on unknowingly. I was actually going to go to Kempton today, but a lack of trains put me off. Sceau Royal is one of my favourite horses, bless him.
Unlike you, who denigrated him in the “A Day At The Races” thread. 😜
In short, we both toyed with going and both stayed at home!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Completely concur with all of that, Ian. I rarely get stuck into a shortie as a rule but absolutely bang on the money with your example.
If The Bear does manage to take to fences – and his injury was too serious – he could take high rank. Both big imponderables but you can take a flyer at that price. Seen a schooling vid and an interview with Nicky Martin mentioned that dirtiest of words from the racing fraternity “machine”.
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