[Bricoman]

I thought I would put my stakes on for the other bets…even though there is little chance of them being accepted…and in the process I’ve dropped a bollock

I’ve taken Regal Parade @ odds of 4.40 (7/2)…thinking I was on Gap Princess.(My odds 3/1).

I think I’ll start another thread singing the virtues of not drinking on the job!!!…………

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Some very interesting points there MrE…I use to have an a/c with Cenrebet’s former company, some Australian outfit that snowy put me onto…think it was Superodds or something like that…always used to bet on SP+ during my "mad period" a couple of years ago…anyway I went on a 3 week run of good fortune and was making bundles but they eventually started messing me about…ie: reducing my stake to £50 when I’d bet a large amount…So I closed the account…I didn’t wait for them to do it…I could see the writing on the wall…

Today’s bets:

2.05 Sand (1) Reverence (RP f/c 13/8F) (My Odds 7.00 (6/1)
2.15 Beve (1) Alpen Adventure (RP f/c 11/10F) (My Odds 2.64 (13/8)
4.55 Sand (3) Regal Parade (RP f/c 7/2) (My Odds 9.00 (8/1)
5.35 Beve (9) Gap Princess (RP f/c 100/30F) (My Odds 4.00 (3/1)

I decided to take a leaf out of Dave Jay’s book and delay placing my bets just to see how the markets pan out, seeing as it’s my day off. Had to revise my odds for the 2.15 at Beve because a major n/r appeared at 10am – My odds are now 2.00 (1/1) and I took 2.08 (11/10) on BF just a few minutes ago. (100% match)

I don’t hold out much hope for the others getting matched…they all seem to be shortening…we’ll see.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Only 3 bets matched today, all 100%…Scintillo 2.50 (2.37 after n/r deduction) (WON 6/4 @ SP)…Nassau Style 5.10 (WON 5/2JF @ SP)…Star of Light 7.80 (LOST 13/2 @ SP)

2 bets unmatched…Cobo Bay 15.00 (LOST 9/2 @ SP)…Hi Dancer 4.70 (LOST 11/10F @ SP)

So far (July):

Betting @ SP: 13 bets, 46.15% s/r, 13.54% r.o.i., 3.77% r.o.o.i.

Matched exchange bets (inc 5% comm): 11 bets, 54.55% s/r, 70.30% r.o.i., 24.02% r.o.o.i

Grains of gold on the SP…Nuggets of gold on the exchanges…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Me again,

Just a word about non-runner’s…I’ve just had to revise my odds downwards on Cobo Bay (17/1 to 14/1) and Hi Dancer (4.70 to 4.39 although still around 7/2 mark)…1 n/r declared in each race.

Scintillo, Nassau Style & Star of Light have all their stakes 100% matched.

If I’m awake…I’ll adjust my odds accordingly but there is a chance that if bets are not matched and n/r’s are declared when I’m in zzzzz land…the bets may not get a look in. (The only flaw in my strategy)

Brico

[Bricoman]

Hi Chaps,

I see I’ve strired up another hornets nest…he!he!

Dave Jay & Shirley (MrE) …Thanks for your thoughts on staking…I’ve been sticking my exchange bets on in the morning…I work nights so it just happens to suit my sleeping pattern. I set a price according to my ratings and stick to it. So basically, I’ll leave it on all day hoping that they are all accepted, but if they are’nt, no worries. Up to now, all my 8 bets on the exchanges (July) have been taken, 7 @ 100% and 1 @ 25% stakes…which leaves me to believe that I can squeeze even more VALUE. So in a vain attempt I have factored in another 1/4 point for every horse, which effectively pushes my prices out a bit more.

Yesterday’s Update:

Even though L.E. had an RP f/c 11/8F…my ratings gave me odds of 2.10 (11/10) and when I saw 2.24 (5/4) available I took it. Consequently, the price drifted like a barge out to 6/4 during the day. Legal Eagle WON @ an SP of 4/5F. So even though I got a good price, I know I could have done better. (Hence my 1/4 point increase in my ratings). I’m aware that it wont work out for every race…but it seems like the smart thing to do.

Profit Comparison after 8 bets, 50% strike rate…

Betting @ SP….9.5% R.O.I., 1.63% R.O.O.I. (returns on original investment)
Exchange betting (including 5% commission)…41.52% R.O.I., 10.03% R.O.O.I.

Early days, I know but I think the above figures illustrate my case entirely…VALUE.

Today’s Bets:

3.15 Sand (7) Scintillo (RP f/c 11/8F) (My Odds 2.50 (6/4))
3.30 Warw (5) Nassau Style (RP f/c 6/1) (My Odds 5.00 (4/1))
3.40 Wolv (3) Cobo Bay (RP f/c 11/2) (My Odds 18.25 (17/1))
4.25 Sand (2) Star of Light (RP f/c 6/1) (My Odds 7.80 (7/1))
5.40 Warw (5) High Dancer (RP f/c 13/8F) (My Odds 4.70 (7/2))

Last time I looked only Nassau Style & Star of Light had a 100% match

Good luck today gents

Brico

[Bricoman]

Hi All,

Glad to hear you’re doing well at the tender age of 65 Mr E…I agree with your analogy on the grains of gold sand bit in your last post.

With the present system (25/5/07 to 30/6/07) I had 133 bets…55 winners, 78 losers, 13 n/r’s for a 41.35% strike rate.(n/r’s not included). My return on investments amounts to 15.79% and the return on my starting bank has been 57.70%. I set my starting bank at 3 times my maximum predicted longest losing run, and was prepared for a losing run of 10 over 130 bets. My only misgiving is that I’m not sure that I’m getting the best VALUE betting at SP. By the way, I have had two long losing runs…A run of 9 and a run of 7…but the maximum amount that my starting bank has lost was 12.50%.

The purpose of this post (apart from contacting old friends) was to bring in the question of value and how we achieve it on a day to day basis. Believe it or not I’ve had a Betfair account for years and have hardly used it…In fact, I had to re-apply because my account was classed as dormant.
But I get so angry with myself when I leave bets to market forces only to see them shorten considerably and WIN…When I know, if I’d stuck the bet on earlier on BF at 3 times the price , the VALUE would be extra leg room when the losers come piling in.

I agree with Artemis on the level stakes …especially when trialling NEW systems.

I digress…

Yesterday’s Update:

Both bets were matched 100% and Kay Es Jay WON at an SP of 5/4F…I managed to get 4.00 (3/1) so am well chuffed but the other day I took 2.46 (6/4) about Artdeal but it returned a winner @ 15/8F…That’s what is so interesting…Have I got my predictions right…WIN or LOSE.

Today’s Bets: (If I’m lucky)

I had 2 bet’s today but Spring City (4.00 Yarm) was declared a n/r…

6.50 Newb Legal Eagle (RP f/c 11/8F) (My Odds f/c 2.12 (11/10)

Got 2.24 (5/4) 100% Matched on BF…but as I was starting this post it was already drifting out to 2.42 (7/5)

If we get the rain we’re promised, then the meeting will most likely be abandoned.

Cheerio Folks

Keep the spirits high…I can see the sun coming out!!!

Brico

[Bricoman]

Hi all,

Forgot to post predictive odds…

3.05 Catt (5.10) 100% matched
6.50 Kemp (4.00) 100% matched

Yesterday:

2.30 Brig (2.46) 100% matched (WON)
3.00 Brig (3.45) 100% matched
5.00 Brig (4.80) 100% matched (Last 2 minutes before the off)…bugger

Laters

Brico

[Bricoman]

Hi All,

Throw away your "brain trainers"…this is the real McCoy!

Why do millions do the lottery….bingo….scratchcards….etc

HOPE!

We all hope that one day we’ll come up trumps and live the life of luxury. The best bit though is striving to get there…

I think most of us have learnt from experience that there are no easy solutions. The main points to remember are:

1. Know your strike rate.
2. Know your maximum losing run for "x" amount of bets.
3. Set your starting bank to cater for those losing runs.
4. Know that each day is a day closer to the golden egg.
5. Be mentally deficient in all aspects of life…apart from the Gee Gee’s.

Glad to here from all of you…Mr Ed…reknowned for his monologues and wit….Snowman & Dave Jay….excellent all round maths wizards…and Matron…A firm hand to keep the nutters in check.

Today’s Picks:

3.05 Catt Eastern Romance
6.50 Kemp Kay Es Jay

Time for bed said Zeberdee

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Thanks for the replies Guys,

Just an update on yesterdays action…

Society Music came 2nd and I was expecting my odds of 6.60 to be completely ignored, but I was proved wrong. Somebody out there nicked 25% of my stake…Glad to see I’m not the only nutter on the planet!

As for Circle of Love. I managed to get 1.89 at 100% stake and it duly obliged. Giving an overall profit on the day, and there were 4 n/r’s in total that didn’t seem to affect the price by much.

I had my usual bets at WHill (same picks – far lower stakes) at SP…and ended up with a slight loss…C.o.L. only made 5/6 @ SP and S.M. was 4/1 JF @ SP.

Today’s Bets – All at Brighton

2.30 – (1) Artdeal (RP f/c 5/4F) (My odds 2.46 matched @ 90% stake) (1 declared n/r)

3.00 – (1) Doctor Ned (RP f/c 3/1 2F) (My odds 3.25 matched @ 100% stake) (1 declared n/r)

5.00 – (2) Canadian Danehill (RP f/c 3/1 JF) (My odds 4.80 not matched)

Almost time for bed!

Good luck all

Regards

Bricoman (certified nutcase)

[Bricoman]

Definately mate…Hopefully starting to pick up now.

Out 7.00, In 6.38, P/L -0.62

2.10 Newb  Johnny Alpha f/c 9/4F<br>2.30 Thirsk  Sound Simla f/c 2/1F<br>5.10 Thirsk  Monkstown Road f/c 11/8F<br>5.25 Newb  Kong f/c 9/4F

[Bricoman]

Out 5.00, In 2.63, P/L -2.37

2.10 Ripon  Jaasey f/c 7/4F…Lost<br>4.05 Newmarket  Oranmore Castle f/c 13/8F…Won 11/4F<br>

(Edited by Bricoman at 9:02 am on April 15, 2005)

[Bricoman]

Typical start with 3 loser from 3

1.25 Chel  Prins Willem f/c 5/4F…Won 13/8F<br>3.45 Chel  Lord Of Illusion f/c 6/5F…N/R<br>2.55 Newm  Cape Columbine f/c 7/4F…2nd 15/8F

(Edited by Bricoman at 9:18 am on April 14, 2005)

[Bricoman]

Thanks snowman…Looks like I’ll need plenty of that.

2.55 Newmarket  Museeb f/c 2/1F…2nd 13/8F

(Edited by Bricoman at 9:13 am on April 13, 2005)

[Bricoman]

This question is quite easily explained by using a simple formula:

Number of systems/Time Available = Crap Monitoring..:biggrin:

Personally I feel only Women have the ability to do several chores at the same time and still make it look easy…:)

Seriously though, I feel more comfortable monitoring ONE system at a time in detail for the time I have allotted myself to this "Sport of Kings"…particularly if it happens to be doing the business. I also know that IT CAN take over your life if you try to monitor many systems at the same time and try to meet the normal demands of family life, work..etc.

Sometimes it’s hard to see the wood for the trees and that is the time to step back…lay low…and observe multi-lateral methods of making this game pay. Time is on our side…it takes a long time to prove that your painstaking observations bare fruit continueously and that you are on the right track to attaining wealth beyond your imagination.

Dream ON….:biggrin: <br>

[Bricoman]

3* PICK TODAY

3.20 Taunton  Eau Pure (11 tips)(5*11)(+£368)

[Bricoman]

NO 3* PICK TODAY

[Bricoman]

NO 3* PICKS TODAY

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