July 2, 2007 at 11:19 #4504
Love the new website!!!
Just like to say a big hello to all my mad "old" muckers ( snowman,matron,mr ed,etc) from the past and also the present insane crowd.
Have been following the present trends and I’m currently trying to find value in a system that has a 40% strike rate. (aprrox)
2.45 Pont (1) Society Music (RP f/c price = 11/2 2F)
4,45 Pont (1) Circle of Love (RP f/c price = 1/1F)
I rate each selection by giving 1/2 pt for each tick in the Postdata and 1/2 pt for each time a selection is napped on the Racing Post.
I then enter the ratings into a bit of software that predicts the % chances and gives me a price to follow.
I have the usual "age old" problem of non-runners to attend with and it can be slightly frustrating at times, but I enjoy every minute (Good and Bad)…
The 2.45 @ Pont started off with 13 runners and my pick was f/c 11/2…and my predicted price was 7/1…since then, there have been 2 n/r’s and deleting them from my software has given me a modified price of 11/2.
The interesting fact today was that the shortest price was for "The Mighty Ogmore", which, unfortunely became a n/r. So presently I have 2 selections that are joint top…Society Music and Apasra are both priced at 11/2.
In the 4.45 @ Pont I had my selection priced at 1.94 (10/11) but, yet again there have been 2 n’r’s…Yet, the 2 n/r’s have made little impact on my price of 10/11…price has dropped to 1.89 but still in the 10/11 range.
Both bets are on Betfair, and as yet, (last time I checked) have not been matched.
BricomanJuly 2, 2007 at 11:40 #105733
Nice to see you back Bricoman.[/color:2e44a9j6]
Good luck for today.[/color:2e44a9j6]
Regards – Matron[/color:2e44a9j6]
July 2, 2007 at 21:06 #105800dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
Hi Bricoman .. nice to see you back .. !!July 3, 2007 at 02:18 #105829snowmanParticipant
- Total Posts 554
Nice to see you on. Thumbs up from me too re the site.
Mostly football for me now, but just as much (or should that be little )
success. Call in fairly regularly but post hardly at all – dont know why, it
can take over sometimes, perhaps that’s it.
Anyway very best wishes to all, old & new, will try to post more often.
Fondest regardsJuly 3, 2007 at 09:52 #105846
Thanks for the replies Guys,
Just an update on yesterdays action…
Society Music came 2nd and I was expecting my odds of 6.60 to be completely ignored, but I was proved wrong. Somebody out there nicked 25% of my stake…Glad to see I’m not the only nutter on the planet!
As for Circle of Love. I managed to get 1.89 at 100% stake and it duly obliged. Giving an overall profit on the day, and there were 4 n/r’s in total that didn’t seem to affect the price by much.
I had my usual bets at WHill (same picks – far lower stakes) at SP…and ended up with a slight loss…C.o.L. only made 5/6 @ SP and S.M. was 4/1 JF @ SP.
Today’s Bets – All at Brighton
2.30 – (1) Artdeal (RP f/c 5/4F) (My odds 2.46 matched @ 90% stake) (1 declared n/r)
3.00 – (1) Doctor Ned (RP f/c 3/1 2F) (My odds 3.25 matched @ 100% stake) (1 declared n/r)
5.00 – (2) Canadian Danehill (RP f/c 3/1 JF) (My odds 4.80 not matched)
Almost time for bed!
Good luck all
Bricoman (certified nutcase)July 3, 2007 at 11:24 #105856
Hello Brico and the Snowy…… its been a long time guys, good to see you around….. like you, I dont post much these days cos all the old team has sodded off……. I did see that good old Daz posted the other day but to no avail, he was soon given short shrift and he disappeared again…… come back Dazzlers…… Moses and Dave Jay seem to be holding their ends up OK….. sorry Moses, I meant Matron……. I keep turning up now and then, but as you say, the waters don’t swirl about with the same vigour as they have in the past….. perhaps they’re all getting a bit past it like me, I’m still doing great, but I get reluctant to post cos I’m usually far too busy…… life’s bloody hectic when your retired……
Nevertheless, this still remains the best message board out here and I just can’t resist nipping in now and again to see if I can wind somebody up….. we’ve had some cracking discussions in the past and perhaps we can have some more in the near future…… come back Urby you old git…… all the best guys……. and Moses, Dave Jay, and all inmates of Ward 7……
MrEJuly 3, 2007 at 11:44 #105858
I’m hope you are not sending to me off to the desert for 40 years MrE?
I think a lot of people give up because finding the "holy grail" is not easy.
I must admit I tend to just trade nowdays and take short profits.
Regards – Matron
July 3, 2007 at 22:23 #105959dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
Snowman, MrE, Bricoman ??
What’s going on Moses, it’s like a trip back in time?
I think the thing is with theracingforum systems department or ward 7 as it is sometimes known’ is that if people don’t post or get involved then it does go very quiet and no-one has the energy to keep the place afloat by themselves. But if you think back to the systems posted up 5 years ago to the things that are posted up now most people have ‘wised up’ or moved on .. the old systems just don’t stand up to the test of time, not even the old 5/4, for anyone who remembers that gem !
My question would be this; is the quest for the Holy Grail a futile one, or is it out there somewhere ? I don’t know the answer ..July 4, 2007 at 08:16 #105990
I think you quite right Dave -after, a length time most systems go off the boil.
Horse racing is so difficult to predict!
I remember the 5/4 system – still have the rules for it somewhere!
It is nice to see some old names again – just drop in for a chat, you don’t have to post a system!
Regards – Matron
July 4, 2007 at 10:08 #106009
Throw away your "brain trainers"…this is the real McCoy!
Why do millions do the lottery….bingo….scratchcards….etc
We all hope that one day we’ll come up trumps and live the life of luxury. The best bit though is striving to get there…
I think most of us have learnt from experience that there are no easy solutions. The main points to remember are:
1. Know your strike rate.
2. Know your maximum losing run for "x" amount of bets.
3. Set your starting bank to cater for those losing runs.
4. Know that each day is a day closer to the golden egg.
5. Be mentally deficient in all aspects of life…apart from the Gee Gee’s.
Glad to here from all of you…Mr Ed…reknowned for his monologues and wit….Snowman & Dave Jay….excellent all round maths wizards…and Matron…A firm hand to keep the nutters in check.
3.05 Catt Eastern Romance
6.50 Kemp Kay Es Jay
Time for bed said Zeberdee
BricoJuly 4, 2007 at 10:43 #106016
Forgot to post predictive odds…
3.05 Catt (5.10) 100% matched
6.50 Kemp (4.00) 100% matched
2.30 Brig (2.46) 100% matched (WON)
3.00 Brig (3.45) 100% matched
5.00 Brig (4.80) 100% matched (Last 2 minutes before the off)…bugger
BricoJuly 4, 2007 at 22:22 #106120
Oooooh guys, whats all this negativity, that just drags you down…… with this game you have just gotta keep your chin up….. I was gonna say "keep your pecker up" but Matron would be running around the ward screaming "Bromide, Bromide"…… and then in the worst possible scenario, he’d get Dave Jay to administer it anally while he watched….. conjures up nightmarish thoughts…. I went through that before I escaped the last time and that Nurse Ratchet Urby was a cruel git after I spotted him and Matron together in the sluice room….. they said they was washing bedpans….. I dunno what they were washing, but they were doing it fast…….
MrEJuly 4, 2007 at 22:52 #106125
In my previous post I mentioned negativity….. you’ve got to get rid of all those sorts of thoughts….. and neither should you plant those thoughts into others……. an awful lot of people before you or me or Matron (he’s 4 years older than God), have put years of work in on these systems and it is wrong to discard them like some old rubbish….. most of these systems would still work in parts and could still be made to be profitable…… I remember that a few years back old Dazzlers came up with a systen called "The Majestic", it had quite impressive results for a while and then dropped off and Daz stopped posting it, but I carried on with it and modified it here and there and I continued making a small profit for another 6 months after he stopped posting……. I dropped it because I had found summat better……. the new one went bananas for a long time after that too, but again that was shelved because I was unable to stay at my P/C all day every day, so again I moved on…….
There are easy positive methods out there, you’ve just gotta look for them…. you’ve gotta blend two or three methods together to make it comfortable for your own betting style……. but the most important thing by far is….. your staking…… be under no illusion whatsoever, if you aint got your staking right you’ll be stuffed outa sight……. you can work out your form, speed, going etc, but if your staking is wrong, wave the profits goodbye…….
I’ve had my arguments and discussions with other members of this ward over the past few years, a lot of the time I felt like I was banging my head against a brick wall…… but at 65 I’m still here and still making money from betting……. no, the guys are right, there is not a "Holy Grail"….. but there is a bloody lot of specks of gold sand out there….. get enough grains of sand and you’ll end up with a nice little nugget…… its there guys, but you’ve gotta keep looking…… and dont give up at the first hurdle…..
Your all probably well aware of all this and I’m teaching my granny to suck eggs, but all this negative thinking wants booting up the arse….. smile, be happy and positive….. I’m proof of the pudding….. if I was failing, I wouldn’t bother writing this, I’d just stay forgotten in oblivion….. cheer up Ward 7….
MrEJuly 5, 2007 at 08:27 #106149ArtemisParticipant
- Total Posts 1736
Hi Mr E,
Nice to read that your’e still in good shape.
Your’e dead right about being positive. In life, confidence and poise are everything. If you have it, you can move mountains; if you don’t, you might as well stay in bed.
Wise horse players know there’s no magic formula or ‘holy grail’ to seek. It’s purely hard work helped by experience applied with a dash of confidence. If things are not going so well, just take a break for a while rather than risk losing that vital confidence.
I’m not so sure about this staking business, though. I’ve never been persuaded that one staking method is better than any other for profitability, although some staking plans spice things up a bit. People have run all kinds of staking plans on computer simulations, yet they all conclude that none of the plans perform any better than level staking in the long run. There may be a case for staking according to level of confidence, price etc.,
Maybe you could tell us a bit more about your staking methods – without revealing your secrets, of course.July 5, 2007 at 11:24 #106179
Glad to hear you’re doing well at the tender age of 65 Mr E…I agree with your analogy on the grains of gold sand bit in your last post.
With the present system (25/5/07 to 30/6/07) I had 133 bets…55 winners, 78 losers, 13 n/r’s for a 41.35% strike rate.(n/r’s not included). My return on investments amounts to 15.79% and the return on my starting bank has been 57.70%. I set my starting bank at 3 times my maximum predicted longest losing run, and was prepared for a losing run of 10 over 130 bets. My only misgiving is that I’m not sure that I’m getting the best VALUE betting at SP. By the way, I have had two long losing runs…A run of 9 and a run of 7…but the maximum amount that my starting bank has lost was 12.50%.
The purpose of this post (apart from contacting old friends) was to bring in the question of value and how we achieve it on a day to day basis. Believe it or not I’ve had a Betfair account for years and have hardly used it…In fact, I had to re-apply because my account was classed as dormant.
But I get so angry with myself when I leave bets to market forces only to see them shorten considerably and WIN…When I know, if I’d stuck the bet on earlier on BF at 3 times the price , the VALUE would be extra leg room when the losers come piling in.
I agree with Artemis on the level stakes …especially when trialling NEW systems.
Both bets were matched 100% and Kay Es Jay WON at an SP of 5/4F…I managed to get 4.00 (3/1) so am well chuffed but the other day I took 2.46 (6/4) about Artdeal but it returned a winner @ 15/8F…That’s what is so interesting…Have I got my predictions right…WIN or LOSE.
Today’s Bets: (If I’m lucky)
I had 2 bet’s today but Spring City (4.00 Yarm) was declared a n/r…
6.50 Newb Legal Eagle (RP f/c 11/8F) (My Odds f/c 2.12 (11/10)
Got 2.24 (5/4) 100% Matched on BF…but as I was starting this post it was already drifting out to 2.42 (7/5)
If we get the rain we’re promised, then the meeting will most likely be abandoned.
Keep the spirits high…I can see the sun coming out!!!
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