[Bricoman]

Today’s bets:

1:50 Asco Master Chef (RP f/c 4.50)…(Required 4.82…asked for 5.30)…no match
2:15 York Climaxtackledotcom (RP f/c 13.00)…(Required 9.60…asked for 10.50)…no match
3:20 York Red Romeo (RP f/c 7.50)…(Required 10.30…asked for 11.50)…no match
3:45 Newm Honkey Tonk Sally (RP f/c 4.50)…Required 4.53…asked for 5.00…matched @ 5.90
4:30 York Dream Lodge (RP f/c 13.00)…Required 6.90…asked for 7.60…matched 11.00@70% stake…13.18@30% stake.

My cunning plan is to take my implied odds (Required)…multiply by 0.1 and add the answer to the required odds.

Take the 3.45 Newm….Required odds are 4.53 x 0.1 = 0.453….asked odds will be 0.453 + 4.53 = 4.983…rounded up to 5.00

Not very optimistic today…but you never know in this game…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Have a good holiday Dave…

Yesterday…Casino Night 4.90 100% match…taken at 2pm.. (5th 5.00@SP)…Garnett 5.30 100% match…taken at 3.19pm.. (5th 5.00@SP)…more or less spot on with my implied odds but both runners drifted badly late on.

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 28 bets, 39.29% s/r, 19.68% r.o.i., 11.80% r.o.o.i.

Exchange: 24 bets, 41.57% s/r, 52.10% r.o.i., 40.38% r.o.o.i.

MrE…I just Googled that "Harville Formula"…It’s another world out there….

Back later with today’s bets….I have a cunning plan to squeeze some more value out of my picks…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

MrE…Your wife’s mother must be nearly as old as Matron…

Some interesting and informative points there, I’ve a few questions of my own regarding place betting on the exchanges…I will put them when I have more time…Food for thought, MrE…Food for thought.

Artemis…Good call on Medley…now that is definately one I should have bet for a place..

Dave Jay…Still on a learning curve with the exchanges…I suppose the main thing is I’m trying to beat my implied odds…but, as you say..beating SP is also a primary goal.

All 4 bets were 100% matched yesterday…Medley 19.00 (3rd 9/1 @ SP)…Tanley 3.90…(1 n/r…7% r.f.gave me 3.62) (2nd 11/4F @ SP)….Tranquilizer 7.00@20% stake…6.80@80% stake (WON 6/1@SP)…Gordonsville 1.68 (2nd 4/6F@SP).

July Stats Update:
Betting@SP: 26 bets, 42.31% s/r, 28.88% r.o.i., 16.08% r.o.o.i.

Exchanges: 22 bets, 45.45 s/r, 66.42% r.o.i., 47.05% r.o.o.i.

Apart from Medley…most of the other bets drifted in the afternoon and if I had set my prices higher, I’d have done better, but you have to weigh this up with bets being rejected if they are to high…I’m pretty sure that some bets will go in my favour and others will not.

Today’s Bets:

2.20 Warw (12) Casino Night 4.90 (RP f/c 3/1F)
3.30 Warw (2) Garnett 5.30 (RP f/c 7/2 2F)

Last time I looked neither bet matched…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Just a quick update…then I’m off to bed.

Tanley has just been 100% matched @ 3.90…sorted

See you all tomorrow am for the results update

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Morning Campers,

Thanks davidbrady…They were the days…Lot’s of characters about…MrE…snowman…Urby…Dazzer…dave Jay…and plenty of humour mixed with a modicum of common sense information…ruled by the rod of iron…formerly known as Moses…aka Matron.

dave jay…I’m happy that the system is chucking out winners at an alarming rate, but I’m over the moon at the exchange betting scenario. As I’ve said before, hadn’t been a keen lover of exchanges because it tended to eat into my time but it’s definately worth the effort in seeking the added value.

MrE …Stop skulking about and post us another one of your pearls of wisdom/wit…the systems forum is less drab without your monologues and the 40 years of expertise.

Today’s Bets:

1.30 Newm (1) Medley (RP f/c 16/1) (My Odds 17.22)… 19.00 100% matched on BF…19 runners so could be a few n/r deductions before the off.
2.20 Catt (3) Tanley (RP f/c 9/4 2F) (My Odds 3.89)…asked for 3.90 but last time I looked not matched.
3.55 Ling (1) Tranquilizer (RP f/c 12/1) (My Odds 6.25)…asked for 7.00 (20% matched)…asked for 6.80 (80% matched)…all in.
5.15 Catt (1) Gordonsville (RP f/c 1/2F) (My Odds 1.68….)…not matched.

I’ve had big RP f/c prices before but never 2 in one day!…got a feeling that today’s gunner be a bummer…let’s wait and see….

Note: Did you know that when you type in an 8 followed by a closing bracket you get this icon pop up…… ……..I just added a few dots to overcome the problem.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Never got a look-in today…Got up 1/2 an hour before the off and 3.35 had not been taken…n/r declared @ 15:49 with a reduction factor of 0%…Checked my spreadsheet and revised my odds down to 3.15 (every horse as a chance in my book)…all the time I was watching the odds on BF slipping away from me…getting shorter and shorter…then @ 16:01 another n/r declared with 0% R.F….back to my spreadsheet…got the revised odds of 3.00..by this time I was just going through the motions knowing that the race was about to start at any second…returned back to BF and the game was over…race had begun. (WON 1/2F @ SP)…If you beat that price you gained VALUE….

July Stats (Update):

Betting@SP: 22 bets, 45.45% s/r, 20.50% r.o.i., 9.66% r.o.o.i.

Exchange (inc comm): 18 bets, 50% s/r, 67.05% r.o.i., 38.55% r.o.o.i.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Morning Gents,

Today’s Bet:

4.00 Ling (4) Marozi (RP f/c 5/4F) (My Odds 3.35) (12/5)…Not matched yet

Have to keep an eye on the n/r’s (if they arise) and revise my odds to suit…as well as get some shuteye.

It is true to say, with my present system…I’m spending more time looking for value and less time looking for winners…if my price doesn’t get matched..who cares..I live to fight another day….

How many banks do you know that would pay you 38% interest for borrowing your money for 9 days?

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Today’s Update…
Fol Hollow’s odds were taken early..100% match @ 5.00 (4/1)..(WON 5/2F @ SP)…..Perfect Paula had 1 n/r declared and I revised my odds to 6.20…Got taken in the last 2 minutes before the off…(LOST 4/1 @ SP)….Apollo Shark (4.00) not taken until 1st n/r declared…revised my odds to 3.07 and 3.35 matched @ 100%…Next time I visited the computor there had been another major n/r declared and a 22.3% reduction levied…bringing the odds down to 2.60 (8/5)…I did a quick shufty on my revised odds and 2.50 came the answer…so happy to take the reduction…(WON 5/4F @ SP)

July Stats:

Betting@SP: 21 bets, 42.86% s/r, 19.10% r.o.i., 8.59% r.o.o.i.

Exchanges (inc 5% comm): 18 bets, 50% s/r, 67.05% r.o.i., 38.55% r.o.o.i.

Usually after a day like that I end up having a stinker the next day…

Thanks Dave…Luck is all that is needed…just happen to be getting my fair share at the moment.

Catch you tomorrow am with further selections

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Major runner has dropped out at 4.00 Muss…
Have revised Apollo Shark’s implied odds to 3.07… Got 3.35 (16/5) 100% matched on the exchanges.

Nearly bedtime…

Regards

Brico

Ps: Only 1 bottle this morning…

[Bricoman]

Hot off the press!
N/R at 2.15 Bath…Had to revise my odds down to 6.20 (5/1)
Currently Perfect Paula has odds of 4.00 (3/1) On the exchanges…

Good post Artemis…That should cheer MrE up…He’s getting lonely out there….

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Good Morning MrE…You’re quite right…as long as your methods are making a half decent profit then there should be no cause for concern.

I did look at the place price for my 1st bet in July…Society Music came 2nd and I had asked for odds of 6.60 but only 25% of my stake was matched just before the off…I could have got 2.10 in the morning for a place…I thought "you plonker"…you could have doubled your stake!…but I’m sure there would be many occasions when I was glad I didn’t. Might be a good idea for somebody to do a comparison with win bets @ SP just to see what happens…my time is fully occupied at present.

Nobody has picked me up yet over yesterday’s deliberate mistake…ie: my bet would have been matched @ 4/1, which is what I should have been asking for after the n/r was declared at 11.23am.

Today’s Bets:
2.15 Bath (16) Perfect Paula 6.60 (11/2) (RP f/c 5/2F)
2.30 Muss (1) Fol Hollow 4.77 (4/1) (RP f/c 9/2)
4.00 Muss (3) Apollo Shark 4.00 (3/1) (RP f/c 3/1 JF)

All stakes have been placed and Fol Hollow 100% matched @ 5.00
Same rules apply…any n/r’s declared on ummatched bets…odds will be re-ajusted, as long as I’m about.

Regards

Brico

Ps: I think we should rename this thread "The Brico/MrE information line"..

[Bricoman]

The Betchworth Kid 5.60…took 4.20 by mistake (WON 7/2 @ SP)…1 n/r but bet 100% matched after it’s declaration.

Had a quick look at the Oddschecker and 5.30 was matched at 2.31pm so my odds of 5.60 may well have been taken…hard to say…I know somebody had a tenner matched on BF @ 8.00 overnight.

Stats Update (July):

Betting @ SP: 18 bets, 38.89% s/r, 7% r.o.i., 2.70% r.o.o.i.

Exchanges: 15 bets, 46.67% s/r, 50.85% r.o.i., 24.15% r.o.o.i.

All in all, a good day…but failed to obtain VALUE…which is the main aim on this thread…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

I know MrE..
It’s just so difficult to get out of "night shift mode" on my days off!
(The mornings are my evenings…chilling out time)…

The wife’s still here so I can’t be that bad….

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Oh my God!!!

Just done it again!
N/r declared..adjusted my ratings…went back to the exchange saw what I thought were good odds and got a 100% match…

Forgot to add the +1 for BF odds, so took my selection at 4.2 (16/5) instead of waiting for (4/1)…Double Bugger!….I’ve only had 3/4 bottle of red so there must be a bloody pattern starting to form here.

See you later with the result

Brico

[Bricoman]

carlisle…You’re right there mate…that’s why we go to such depths in studying form, etc…trouble is, after a few losers on the trot you begin to think why did I waste all that time studying…without knowing that losing runs are a part of the game and predicting them accurately makes them less of an obstacle….Provided the winners you get are at realistic odds…then the losers can be dealt with.

Dave Jay…I think we all do the best we can with what information we have and it’s true to say if you run with the pack…you deserve to get scammed!…

Today’s Bets

2.30 Brig (5) The Betchworth Kid 5.60 (9/2) (RP f/c 7/2)

Highest price on oddschecker overnight has been 4.60…last time I looked it was 4.20…my bets is on….to date: not matched.

Sheik ‘n’ Knotsterd may not run if ground is unsuitable (trainer quote)…looked at past runs and ran on Good & Gd/Fm so should be suitable…If it dosn’t run, there is a 5.2% reduction factor on BF…If bet not matched and Sheik doesn’t run I will be reducing my odds down to 5.00 (4/1).

Still on a losing run of 7 so could be another loser (10 max)???

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

MrE…Don’t forget Artemis & Matron….

Dave Jay….Excellent question….I have 2 hats…1 with prices in and 1 with gee gee’s names…then I get my Grandad (who is blind and totally impartial) to have a lucky dip….
Seriously though, It is very much a work in progress…I was looking for something that would be quick and easy to do that someone with the mental agility of a peanut could manage… So (as I mentioned in my very 1st post on this thread) I give each horse half a point for each tick in the Postdata section of the RP…also 1/2 pt for a Group entry, and 1/2 pt for each nap….I then gave 1/4 pt to EVERY runner but upgraded this to 1/2 pt to squeeze a bit more value for my selection.

I then enter the total 1/2 pts for each runner into an Excel spreadsheet that gives me the probability and odds-1 (Need to add 1 for BF prices)…I also note down the RP f/c price just to compare like for like.

If there are non-runners, then I ammend the rating of that runner to read zero and revised odds are given in an instant.

Up to now, some prices have been spot on…some well above…and some below the RP price…but the main thing I think when evaluating new strategies is to be consistent…which is why everything is mechanised.

Hope that answers your question Dave…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Had 3 from 4 bets 100% matched today (including the dropped bollock)…Alpen Adventure (2.64 revised to 2.08 after n/r declared) (PU 10/11F @ SP)…Regal Parade (9.00 but took 4.40 under the influence of red wine) (LOST 7/2 @ SP)…Gap Princess (4.10) (LOST 3/1 JF @ SP)…Reverence (7.00) was unmatched (LOST 5/2F @ SP).

Presently a losing run of 7 bets, betting at SP and 4 bets (should be 3 really) betting on the exchanges. So we are getting close to the predicted longest losing run of 10 for a 250 bet series @ 40% s/r.

Betting @ SP: 17 bets, 35.29% s/r, -13.18% r.o.i., -4.80% r.o.o.i.

Exchanges: 14 bets, 42.86% s/r, 31.74% r.o.i., 14.02% r.o.o.i.

MrE…You’re right about finding time to post after trawling through the cards…placing your bets…updated your records…and taking the missus shopping…and the exchanges complicate things by seducing you into watching odds go up and down. Keep dropping in with your little gems of wisdom…cos they always make interesting reading and usually generate a response from other forumites.

Regards

Brico

[Author]

Posts