[Bricoman]

Morning all…Yesterday’s roundup:

King Joshua…n/r…Loulwa 1.62…Not Matched…(Won 1.33 @ SP)…Edas 3.20…Not matched…(3rd 2.10 @ SP)

July Stats:

Betting@SP: 51 bets, 33.33% s/r, -3.49% roi, -3.81% rooi
Exchanges: 35 bets, 37.14% s/r, 32.48% roi, 37.08% rooi

Today’s bets:

1.00 Newb (1) Lady Deauville 11.00…Got 12.00 100% matched…RP f/c 9.00
1.30 Newb (5) Edge of Gold 4.90…30% matched…RP f/c 4.00
2.15 Nott (4) Exhibition 2.06…Not matched…RP f/c 1.80
2.35 Newb (7) Prince Desire 6.40…100% matched…RP f/c 7.00
3.05 Newb (1) Lisathedaddy 12.00…100% matched…RP f/c 10.00
4.25 Nott (4) Propaganda 3.95…100% matched…RP f/c 5.00
4.55 Nott (4) Rowan Lodge 8.40…Not matched…RP f/c 6.00

Had the evening off so worked out my odds and put them on BF overnight…Didn’t think we would get any racing at Nottingham, but it’s been given the all clear…Heavy with more rain to come…

MrE…It my be a good idea to back all the horses with names referring to the water…stormy weather..etc…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Today’s bets:

5.00 Leic (6) King Joshua 8.40…RP f/c 9.00
5.10 Hami (9) Loulwa 1.62…RP f/c 1.50
5.20 Cart (1) Edas 3.20…RP f/c 2.63

Brico

[Bricoman]

Thanks Artemis…Yesterday’s results gave SP betting a slight loss…2 red hot fav’s both losing.

Oldrik 2.32…Not matched…2nd 1.62 @ SP…Robscarvic 2.48..Not matched…3rd 1.80 @ SP…Rocket Force 7.60…Not matched…6th 5.50 @ SP…Havenstone 4.20…100% matched…3rd 3.13 @ SP

July Stats:

Betting@SP: 49 bets, 32.65% s/r, -2.27% roi, -2.38% rooi

Exchanges: 35 bets, 37.14% s/r, 32.48% roi, 37.08% rooi

Back later with bets

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

2.10 Utto (13) Oldrik was 2.38…revised to 2.32 after 1 n/r declared…RP f/c 2.50

2.30 Catt (1) Robscarvic 2.48…RP f/c 2.10

4.00 Catt (4) Rocket Force 7.60…RP f/c 5.00

5.10 Utto (3) Havenstone 4.20…RP f/c 4.00

Catch you all tomorrow for the results round-up

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Thanks snowman, great to hear from you again.. …Got matched at exactly 1.08pm (zzzzzz!)…set my alarm clock for 3pm. I was actually listening to BF radio and watching the "live" betting…T.O.L. actually got down to 1.08 in the betting and my heart sank…I bet there were a few people suprised when the row of "1000’s" came up and T.O.L. was one of them. Had a quick look at the oddschecker betting history and 3.55 was the highest odds taken at 1.37pm…Marmite 3.50…(WON 15/8@SP)

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 45 bets, 35.56% s/r, 6.42% roi, 6.19% rooi
Exchanges: 34 bets, 38.24% s/r, 36.47% roi, 40.42% rooi

Since the back end of May there have been exactly 177 bets @ SP…70 winners…107 losers…for a 39.54% strike rate…longest losing run is 9…predicted longest losing run over 177 bets@40% s/r was calculated to be 10.

Catch you all later with bets for today

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

3.30 Brig (3) Marmite 3.50…(RP f/c 13/8)

Brico

[Bricoman]

MrE…I think everyone understands the concept of "value", If you can work out a way of getting better than SP in EVERY race then you are on to a winner…

All 3 bets were accepted yesterday…Atabaas Pride 3.50 …(3 n/r’s @ 0% r.f….(2nd 3/1@SP)…Nayodabayo 2.58…(1 n/r…10.5% r.f…revised odds)…(WON 6/5F@SP)…Yorkshire Blue 7.60…(3 n/r’s @ a total of 30.80% r.f.)…(5th 5/1@SP)

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 44 bets, 34.09% s/r, 2.30% roi, 2.16% rooi
Exchanges: 33 bets, 36.36% s/r, 30.23% roi, 32.50% rooi

Considering all the losers I’ve been getting I’m doing too bad with my funds currently earning 32.50% interest on the exchanges, compare to Lloyds TSB….

Only one bet today…and remember I don’t pick ’em…they’re thrown at me via a system that has been doing great since the back end of May.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

In a desparate attempt to get my last unmatched bet matched…I thought if there is a 21.3% reduction factor on Yorkshire Blue because of 2 n/r’s…Then I have to introduce a reduction in the RP f/c of the same amount…Therefore, REQ 8.14 after reduction and RP f/c 7.08…averaged out = 7.61…so this is the asking price! Not that it will do me any good because Y.B. is shortening drastically…may have missed the boat on that one.

Brico

[Bricoman]

3 bets today:

2.00 Ayr (1) Atabaas 3.50…100% matched…(RP f/c 3.25)

3.15 Naab (7) Nayodabayo 2.88…100% matched…(RP f/c 2.38…)…since then 1 n/r declared…8.33am…10.5% r.f….present odds revised to 2.58…would have expected 2.78 on my ratings…such is life…

3.30 Ayr (1) Yorkshire Blue 9.20…(RP f/c 9.00)…Not matched…1 n/r declared…9am…14.3% r.f….revised odds to 9.00 but odds available at present are 7.40…looking grim…

Fair comment, Artemis…I was rather hoping somebody would guess my system…it’s pretty obvious how I’m arriving at my selections…One further point…I only intended to post these picks for the month of July…Just to give an honest view of "A month in the life of a Nutter"…then you will probably never hear from me again…

Off on holiday, early August…so not much point carrying on after then.

Catch you all later

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Morning thread lovers,

MrE…Congrats on your winner yesterday (Commercial Express) 4/1@SP…hope you got higher. Cresswell Willow fell at the last when in a good position…hope the horse is ok.
I see we got some feedback….

Welcome grand lodge…as you can see, I’m not too familiar with the exchanges but I’m learning the hard way.

Artemis…"Schadenfreude" hey…I just hope my losers enrich peoples lives and make them feel better about themselves…I can assure you…this is a system and like so many systems, is having a fair share of losers. I’ve yet to see the words "systematic" and "rational" used in the same sentence…

Yesterday was a losing day on the exchanges with 2 cock-ups both losing and the only "real" bet accepted by the markets was…Still At Lunch 5.70…(3rd 9/2@SP)…The only winner of the day was Hot Zone 2.70…Not matched…(WON 4/5F@SP)…We also had Soliya 3.85…Not Matched…(3rd 6/4F@SP)…Pigeon Island 4.20 (took 3.95 by mistake)…(3rd 15/8F@SP)…Dazzling Jim 8.00 (took 6.60 by mistake)…(5th 4/1@SP)…Both mistakes were costly because the BF odds didn’t reach the "Real" asking price during the day.

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 41 bets, 34.15% s/r, 4.41% r.o.i., 3.88% r.o.o.i.

Exchanges: 30 bets, 36.67% s/r, 35.04% r.o.i., 34.16% r.o.o.i.

Back later with todays bets

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

I’ve been looking at the way the markets have been moving and have decided to change my strategy to get a decent chance of having a bet accepted…

I will meet the RP f/c price half way…so the difference between my REQ odds and the RP odds will be the odds accepted today…otherwise I’m never going to get another bet accepted again….Hands up…

So we have new odds for my picks…Soliya 3.95….Pigeon Island 4.20 (already accepted 3.95…cock-up No 1)…Hot Zone 2.70…Dazzling Jim 8.00 (already accepted 6.60…cock-up No 2)…Still At Lunch 5.70

Take Soliya…My REQ odds 5.13 plus RP odds 2.75 = 7.88 divide by 2 = 3.95…Odds asked for on BF = 3.95…

PS: MrE…. Loads of people viewing this thread but no bugger posting…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Started the day with two major cock-ups…took 2 bets at too short a price through my lack of concentration….

2.00 Stra (3) Soliya…REQ odds 5.13…ASK odds 5.60…Not matched 2.54 available…(RP f/c 7/4 2F)

3.10 Pert (5) Pigeon Island…REQ odds 3.85…ASK odds 4.25…(cock-up No 1)…Got 3.95 100% matched…(RP f/c 7/2)

4.00 Stra (3) Hot Zone…REQ odds 3.53…ASK odds 3.85…Not matched 1.96 available…(RP f/c 10/11F)

5.00 Stra (5) Dazzling Jim…REQ odds 9.11…ASK odds 10.00…(cock-up No 2)…Got 6.60 100% matched…(RP f/c 6/1)

5.10 Pert (9) Still At Lunch…REQ odds 7.60…ASK odds 8.40…Not matched 4.20 available…(RP f/c 11/4 2F)

Will keep an eye out for n/r’s and adjust odds on all unmatched bets.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

MrE…I think you must be refering to davidbrady in his "Fate of the Fav’s" post…where are your bins…

Couldn’t get a match yesterday…Don’t know if it’s a handicap race thing or a Saturday thing but nowhere near my REQ odds…nevermind my ASK odds.

Started the day off with 8 selections…1 was doubtful…2 were abandoned and an early n/r announced before I posted the remainder….Leaving 4…Somnus…REQ odds 6.25…ASK odds 7.00 (revised after 1 n/r)…NO MATCH…(6th 4/1@SP)…Lucayan Dancer…REQ odds 4.94…ASK odds 5.50 (revised after 4 n/r’s)…NO MATCH…(WON 5/2F@SP)…Out After Dark…REQ odds 8.55…ASK odds 9.40…NO MATCH…(7th 3/1F@SP)…Rose Siog…REQ odds 5.56…ASK odds 6.00 (revised after 1 n/r)…NO MATCH…(2nd 3/1@SP.

So 4 bets @ SP…1 win…3 lost and 0 bets on the exchanges matched.

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 36 bets, 36.11% s/r, 13.92% r.o.i., 10.73% r.o.o.i.
Exchanges: 27 bets, 40.74% s/r, 50.47% r.o.i., 44.16% r.o.o.i.

Back later with bets for today.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Hot off the press!!

Major n/r in the 5.30 Ascot…Revised my odds and re-submitted my bet…REQ…5.56…ASK…6.00…available on BF 2.70…

No chance…

Laters

Brico

[Bricoman]

Just 4 bets today…the n/r’s have been deducted and my odds revised.

2.25 Ches (5) Somnus (RP f/c 4/1)…REQ…6.25…ASK…7.00

3.00 Ches (2) Lucayan Dancer (RP f/c 5/1)…REQ…5.38…ASK…6.00

4.35 Asco (4) Out After Dark (RP f/c 5/2F)…REQ…8.55…ASK…9.40

5.30 York (4) Rose Siog (RP f/c 4/1)…REQ…7.00…ASK…7.80

Looking at the recent available odds on BF…I’ve got no chance of my bets being matched…or have I…??……..

As always..will try and keep an eye on the latest n/r’s to affect my bets and revise my odds accordingly.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

MrE…As soon as I saw all the squiggles, brackets and Aztec sign writing I switched off…the most I got at school was an O level in dropping my pencil and looking up the teachers dress…..

As I mentioned earlier…had a major n/r in the 1st race, so had to revise my odds down…Master Chef…REQ odds 3.91…ASK odds 4.30…100% match (WON 3/1 2F@SP)….Climaxtackledotcom was a n/r…Red Romeo…REQ odds 10.30…ASK odds…11.50…Not Matched…(9th 6/1@SP)….Honkey Tonk Sally…REQ odds 4.53…ASK odds 5.00…Got 5.90 early doors…(3 x n/r’s but all 0% reduction factors)….(5th 3/1@SP)…Dream Lodge…REQ odds 6.90…ASK odds 7.60…Got 11.00@70% and 13.18@30%….100% match…N/R declared after match…10.01% r.f….My odds reduced to 9.89@70% and 11.91@30%…(5th 11/2@SP)

On betting SP…1 win (3/1)…3 lost…bank the same….roi decreased.
Exchange betting…1 win (100/30)…2 lost…roi on the day 37.83%

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 32 bets, 37.50% s/r, 17.22% r.o.i., 11.80% r.o.o.i.
Exchanges: 27 bets, 40.74% s/r, 50.47% r.o.i., 44.16% r.o.o.i.

Grains of gold MrE…Grains of gold….

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Major n/r 1:50 Asco….Quick Release…21.4% reduction factor…not matched but with the exchanges being a bit of a learning curve, I have since found out that the betting was suspended and my original bet cancelled…anyway, worked out my revised odds and placed it once again.

Available odds @ 10:30…3.30
My revised required odds…3.91
My asked odds…4.30

I think if all this caper happened when I was throwing the zzzzz out…on a working day, then I would have been denied the opportunity for a bet.

Regards

Brico

[Author]

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