[Bricoman]

Plastic Pig…I’ve backed a few of them in the past but I’ve never driven one…
I’m in no-man’s land at the moment…giving my brain a rest…just tinkering with "out of the box" ideas…nothing concrete to pass on except that I don’t want to spend too much of my time studying form and being on the computor 24/7. So I’m looking at Unnamed Favourites in certain races…similar to place betting in respect that you could have 2 or 3 chances of a win…reduced odds of course…

Will let you all know when I’ve got anything worth passing on.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Hi MrE,

Got a pink slip off Matron so I don’t need to call in every day…Mrs Brico and the Brico kids have been too demanding of my time lately so unable to give the Gee Gees my full attention…

Good to hear from you again..started a new system so just monitoring the progress on paper before making a complete fool of myself and posting it up.

Had a great time in Porlock (no rain)…Those hills can be a bit tricky when you’re sober…

Catch you later

Bricoman

[Bricoman]

Thanks for those kind words Pompete…With MrE around it’s bound to be entertaining…

Hoped to go out with a double… …No chance…Tarkheena Prince 4.00…7th 3.75 @ SP…Paveroc 5.80…6th 5.00 @ SP

Final Update:

Betting@SP: 85 bets, 27.06% s/r, -25.61% roi, -46.62% rooi
Exchanges: 56 bets, 26.79% s/r, -10.40% roi, -19.16% rooi

As you can see from the strike rate in July there have been too many long priced horses to get anywhere near the 40% I was hoping for. It all started going pear shaped on the 13th July, so the last 2 – 3 weeks have seen a nose dive for any profits that had been gained in the previous month. If I had introduced a filter regarding a forecast price range then the damage wouldn’t have been as excessive.

I quite like the idea of using the exchanges to maximize any value that there may be. So I will continue to look and learn in that direction…might even have a look at the place betting stategy.

I’d just like to say a BIG THANKYOU to everyone who has contributed to this thread. I hope we have all gained from the experience…

See you all again soon.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Rosy Alexander…revised to 1.96 after n/r deduction of 5.6%…WON 1.83 @ SP…Mugeba…N/R…Marko Jadeo 18.00…7th 11.00 @ SP…Ahlawy 11.00…Not Matched…2nd 4.00 @ SP

July Update:

Betting@SP: 83 bets, 27.71% s/r, -23.82% roi, -42.33% rooi
Exchanges: 54 bets, 27.78% s/r, -7.04% roi, -12.49% rooi

Last bets on this system:

2.35 Beve (11) Tarkheena Prince 4.00…RP f/c 3.25
5.05 Good (12) Paveroc 4.80…RP f/c 4.50

Back tomorrow with final update

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

All 3 selections lost yesterday but I couldn’t get a match on any of them…Lecanvey 7.40…4th 4.50 @ SP…Pearl 4.80…4th 3.75 @ SP…War Anthem 6.20…3rd 2.75 @ SP.

Betting@SP: 80 bets, 27.50% s/r, -23.25% roi, -39.83% rooi
Exchanges: 52 bets, 26.92% s/r, -7.14% roi, -12.20% rooi

The penultimate day…

3.30 Yarm (12) Rosy Alexander 2.08…RP f/c 1.73
4.00 Yarm (8.) Mugeba 8.40…RP f/c 6.50
4.15 Wolv (5) Marko Jadeo 18.00…RP f/c 21.00
5.00 Yarm (1) Ahlawy 11.00…RP f/c 10.00

Will be leaving it until the final 15 minutes or so before placing any bets.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Cheers MrE…It’s hard to know what to do regarding Betfair…the losing run has been longer than at sp because of the uncertainty in getting a bet on…so I’ve missed a few winners. I suspect if you worked out a price and stuck it on 30 minutes before the off, you would miss most of the n/r’s in the day. It hasn’t helped with me keep changing the odds within a predetermined range…anyway I will be dumping this system after 31st July…due to me starting my holiday on Saturday.

Fifteen Love 1.67…Not matched…WON 1.40 @ SP….Take a Bow 12.00…3rd 10.00 @ SP…Tagula Sunrise 7.00…Not matched…8th 5.50 @ SP…Dzesmin 6.00…2nd 6.00 @ SP

July Update:

Betting@SP: 77 bets, 28.57% s/r, -20.26% roi, -33.40% rooi
Exchanges: 52 bets, 26.92% s/r, -7.14% roi, -12.20% rooi

Today’s bets:

2.05 Pont (5) Lecanvey 7.38…RP f/c 5.00
4.55 Pont (6) Pearl 4.75…RP f/c 3.00
5.15 Carl (6) War Anthem 6.25…RP f/c 3.50

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Just two winners, both at York (heavy ground)

Nevada Desert 11/4 @ SP and Gallileo Figaro 15/2 @ SP

Others to note:

Mister Hardy 3rd @ 14/1
World’s Heroin 2nd @ 11/1
Cactus Rose 2nd @ 7/2
Aaim For Applause 3rd @ 7/2

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Twighlight zone or what?…A winning horse after the 12th losing bet… …Either the jocky or the horse had a calculator MrE…
Albabilia 7.70 – 6.90…Not matched…was at 7.60 all afternoon but I left it until the last 10 minutes and couldn’t even get 6.90…WON 5.50 @ SP…Speedy Sam 13.50…matched…4th 11.00 @ SP.

July Update:

Betting@SP: 73 bets, 28.77% s/r, -17.81% roi, -27.84% rooi
Exchanges: 50 bets, 28% s/r, -3.37% roi, -5.53% rooi

Doesn’t matter how I bet on the exchanges…I either take the odds too early and take a hit with n/r’s or miss out by leaving it too late…inexperience, I guess.

Today’s bets:

1.25 Newm (5) Fifteen Love 2.17…RP f/c 1.67
3.15 York (5) Take a Bow 10.70…RP f/c 11.00
3.30 Newm (4) Tagula Sunrise 7.00…RP f/c 6.00
5.30 York (2) Dzesmin 6.00…RP f/c 7.00

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

The losing run continues…
That’s 204 bets @ SP since the 26th May….75 winners…129…losers and a strike rate of 36.76%. I’m concerned about the number of big price selections over the last fortnight…these have helped push the s/r down from 40% to it’s present level of 28.17% (July). The weather hasn’t helped but I don’t think I can blame it all on the weather or non-runners or abandonments.

The present losing run stands at 12…which is the maximum predicted for the number of bets v overall strike rate. I will continue with these picks until the last day of July, and will do a final update of the stats on the 1st August.

Hunt the Bottle 2.18…Not matched…3rd 1.73 @ SP…The Wicketkeeper 11.00…PU 9.00 @ SP…Piano Man 5.00…11th 4.50 @ SP…Moon Valley 7.00…10th 8.00 @ SP…Brief Goodbye 15.00 accepted…32.4% r.f. on 3 n/r’s giving imposed odds of 10.49…6th 13.00 @ SP…Delayed approach 3.25 accepted…Abandoned due to water-logging.

July Update:

Betting@SP: 71 bets, 28.17% s/r, -23.24% roi, -35.33% rooi
Exchanges: 49 bets, 28.57% s/r, -1.37% roi, -2.20% rooi

Today’s Bets:

2.10 Asco (2) Albabilia…Odds range 7.75 – 6.88…RP f/c 6.00
4.30 Asco (5) Speedy Sam…Odds range 11.75 – 10.50…RP f/c 13.00

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Yesterday’s sinkers…

Feisty Royal 3.15 matched…2nd 2.75 @ SP…Handsome Cross 6.40 Not matched…10th 5.00 @ SP…Spiritual Peace 5.20 Not matched…4th 3.50 @ SP…Jilly Why 6.00 matched…4th 5.00 @ SP

Betting@SP: 66 bets, 30.30% s/r, -17.42% roi, -24.63% rooi
Exchanges: 45 bets, 31.11% s/r, 7.55% roi, 11.14% rooi

Today’s sinkers:

2.10 Sand [4] Hunt the Bottle…Offer range 2.44 – 2.18…RP f/c 1.91
3.05 Utto [1] The Wicketkeeper…Offer range 12.00 – 8.25…RP f/c 4.50
3.30 Bath [8] Piano Man…Offer range 6.80 – 5.90…RP f/c 5.00
3.55 Sand [3] Moon Valley…Offer range 7.20 – 5.80…RP f/c 4.50
4.30 Sand [8] Brief Goodbye…Offer range 15.00 – 13.62…15.00 matched…RP f/c 15.00
5.55 Utto [3] Delayed Approach…Offer range 3.35 – 3.25…RP f/c 3.25

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Morning Surfers…Hope you are all feeling my pain….

Magical Speedfit 4.00…3rd 3.25 @ SP…Sonara… Revised to 7.00 (3 n/r’s…13.3% r.f.)…7th 5.50 @ SP…Reballo 9.25…Not matched…6th 4.33 @ SP.

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 62 bets, 32.26% s/r, -12.10% roi, -16.06% rooi
Exchanges: 43 bets, 32.56% s/r, 12.64% roi, 17.80% rooi

Today’s bets:

Have put my initial bets on at my required odds, but will settle for final odds (which are My odds + RP odds divided by 2)… just before the off, less any n/r deductions.

2.50 Catt (7) Feisty Royale…Initial Odds 3.15…final odds 2.96…RP f/c 2.75
3.50 Catt (1) Handsome Cross…Initial odds 6.40…final odds 6.94…RP f/c 7.50
4.20 Catt (1) Spiritual Peace…Initial odds 6.00…final odds 5.00…RP f/c 4.00
5.05 Ling (7) Jilly Why…Initial odds 5.67…final odds 5.34…RP f/c 5.00

Cheers Snow…I think it’s a great idea…trouble is, mobile technology and I don’t get on…my thumb is bigger than the screen and I keep laying when I should be backing…

MrE…I would refrain from using such phases as "Pressure applied to the stick"…You’ll have Matron on your back….Ooops…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Only a Game 2.38..revised to 2.28 after n/r with 6.6% r.f….Not matched…WON 1.80 @ SP…Could have got 1.99 after n/r declared.

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 59 bets, 33.90% s/r, -7.63% roi, -9.64% rooi
Exchanges: 41 bets, 34.15%, 18.24% roi, 24.47% rooi

Today’s bets:

2.00 Yarm (7) Magical Speedfit…Initial bet 4.64…prepared to take 3.95 before the off…RP f/c 3.25

3.00 Yarm (1) Sonara…Initial bet 10.00…prepared to take 8.50 before the off…RP f/c 7.00

4.00 Yarm (1) Reballo…Initial bet 12.50…prepared to take 9.25 before the off…RP f/c 6.00

Final odds taken will depend on non-runners.

Pushed for time this morning …so big hello to MrE and snowman…If you ask me , this "going stick" is just another ploy to confuse the masses…me included…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Changed my pricing methods yesterday and all 4 bets were accepted…Not a good move!

Glengarra 4.45…Old method of pricing 7.00…accepted 5.00…2nd 5/1 @ SP…lost by a neck…Red Cauldron…4.28…Old method 6.60…accepted 4.30…3rd 3.75 @ SP…Dune Raider…3.65…Old method 5.30…accepted 3.95…4th 4.00 @ SP…Mr Joe Platinum 8.30…1 n/r @ 15.6% reduction factor giving revised price of 7.00…accepted 7.00…Old method of pricing would have given me odds of 8.00, so probably would have been taken after 15.6% reduction…9th 6/1 @ SP.

July Stats Update:

Betting @SP: 58 bets, 32.76% s/r, -9.14% roi, -11.35% rooi
Exchanges: 41 bets, 34.15% s/r, 18.24% roi, 24.47% rooi

Back to the old method of pricing up today…

3.00 Yarm (1) Only a Game 2.37…RP f/c 2.20

Yesterday’s fancy…Prince Namid…3rd 9.00 @ SP…
Get those place bets on MrE…

Fancy Colditz in the 4.15 Ayr…RP f/c 13.00…….Just a fancy…

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

No worries, snowman…Your thoughts and opinions are always valued and welcomed.

Dave…Have PM’d you…Would appreciate your input regarding predicting SP…I think I will be putting my bets on much later…(wait and see job)….

As I explained earlier…I’m a bit of a novice where exchanges are concerned, so still on a learning curve. Today I will be leaving my bets as late as possible and take the "mean average" that appears on oddschecker. Hopefully missing all the non-runner deductions…but I do need to get my bets placed and not rejected…(as is often the case)…watch this space…

Today’s bets:

2.30 NAbb (2) Glengarra 3.50 to 5.40 = 4.45….RP f/c 3.75
2.50 Redc (6) Red Cauldron 3.85 to 4.70 = 4.28…RP f/c 5.50
4.00 NAbb (6) Dune Raider 3.35 to 3.95 = 3.65…RP f/c 3.25
4.30 NAbb (2) Mr Joe Platinum 7.60 to 9.00 = 8.30…RP f/c 5.50

So IF I were to put my bets on at this hour…3 of them would be matched, having beaten the RP f/c price…Red Cauldron being the exception. Will probably leave it until 11..ish…just to see if n/r’s appear.

Have a fancy for Prince Namid in the 3.20 Redcar…RP f/c 8/1…not having a bet though…just fancy it.

Good luck today

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Wing Collar 26.00 100% matched…revised to 24.38 after 1 n/r plus late w/d…2nd 20/1 @ SP…Montevideo…n/r….King of the Arctic…Got 3.65 100% matched after field had been narrowed down to 7 runners…another reduction imposed after further 3 n/r’s…ended up with 2.28 but was hovering @ 6/4 all afternoon…WON 10/11F @ SP.

It’s been hard graft this last 2 days with very little to show for it…If only Wing Collar could have clinched it today….dream on…

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 54 bets, 35.19% s/r, -2.41% roi, -2.78% rooi
Exchanges: 37 bets, 37.84% s/r, 31.29% roi, 37.80% rooi

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

What a wash out!!
Only 1 race from my 7 went ahead…Exhibition 2.06…Not matched…WON 1.57 @ SP…had most of them matched as well…

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 52 bets, 34.62% s/r, -2.33% roi, -2.59% rooi
Exchanges: 35 bets, 37.14% s/r, 32.48% roi, 37.08% rooi

Today has been a bit of a rollercoaster already with n/r’s and odds changing every second…

Original Bets:

4.00 Ripo (2) Wing Collar 21.50…RP f/c 17.00…100% matched @ 26.00…reduced after n/r to 25.01

4.50 MRas (6) Montevideo 7.00…RP f/c 4.50…3 n/r’s declared @ 9.30am with reduction factor of 25.2%…Revised odds to 4.94…eventualy declared a n/r.

5.25 MRas (1) King of the Arctic 5.57…RP f/c 4.50…4 n/r’s declared @ 9am with reduction of 34.2%…Revised odds to 3.65…100% matched…3 more n/r’s declared shortly after…Inflicting a 42.7% reduction on my matched bet and bringing the odds down to 2.28…presently at 10am the odds available for my selection in this 4 runner race (was 11) are 2.54…just makes you want to pack up and go to Alton Towers for the day…

I suspect there will be more n/r’s and disappointments to come today.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

I know it’s sods law but I’ve just done a check on latest odds of my picks…usually put them on BF between 9 – 10am…Nearly all my matched bets have drifted out…

Odds available at 9am…Lady Deauville 13.50…Edge of Gold 5.30…Prince Desire 7.40 and Lisathedaddy 14.00…all beat my accepted overnight odds.

Brico

[Author]

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