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Hi Everyone,
I managed to download Del’s spreadsheets from his new website, so I have spent all this morning going through them with a fine toothcomb.
Taking all his data into account and adding my own to bring it up to the end of Feb – Ive noticed something quite obvious…
It will be more profitable to bet on the one’s that are quoted as Evens or better!
On average there were 19.85 bets a month (9 winning bets), making 17.48 pts and loosing 10.85 pts, giving 6.63 pts average with 3 loosing months.
Whereas, there were 18.46 odds-on bets (13 winning bets), making 6.49 pts, and loosing 5.46 pts, giving 1.03 pts average with 5 loosing months.
Anyone got any thought’s – I just thought I would open the debate.:) Hope it all makes sense!!
Regards
Bricoman
(Edited by Bricoman at 2:10 pm on Mar. 5, 2003)
Hi Jim & Winalot
Can we call a truce… or this could end up the longest running thread in history!
I appreciate your difference of opinions and I respect them both… personally I am a systemite but that is because I couldn’t pick a winner to save my life!
Regards
Bricoman
PS: Come back Del Burgess we need you!!:cool:
Hi All,
Just looking at Lawrence’s speed ratings and Irbee would qualify if Last Seasons speed ratings were included!! I might have a bet anyway, even though it’s not an official system bet.
Starting Bank at 20 pts (5% = 1 pt)
Keyte’s Nap
2.25 Ayr
Skippers Cleuch
70.13% Chance – 5 pts To Win
I’m going nowhere with this, so I have decided to put it on hold until I have far more data. I will be following him on paper though, and it’s given me a few more ideas that I will follow on paper first.. before posting!
(Edited by Bricoman at 8:59 am on Jan. 26, 2003)
Here is another selection that should be a walk in the park…. I wonder.
Keyte’s Nap
2.20 Doncaster
Isio
39.75% Chance – No Bet Today:(
The low % is probably due to Alan not having a win with the trainer or jockey in a Chase last season – also he never won at Doncaster in a Chase event.
I’m starting to have my doubts now, another winner.:angry: <br>
(Edited by Bricoman at 1:30 am on Jan. 25, 2003)
Well it’s a Pipe/McCoy partnership today (I must be mad betting against these two).
Keyte’s Nap
1.20 Warwick
Montalcino
50.50% Chance – No Bet Today:o
Don’t forget, this is not the horse’s chance of winning, it’s the tipster’s chance of winning.
I take no pleasure from this race, as Montalcino suffered a broken leg and had to be put down.<br>
(Edited by Bricoman at 4:45 pm on Jan. 23, 2003)
Hi paul66
Welcome to the forum…and thanks for the tip.
Sounds like a good idea, problem is, when I’m on dayshift I have to get my bet on before 7am, so I usually end up betting at SP.
I could go out and buy one of those WAP phones, but it dosn’t seem worth it when you are trying to have one bet a day at small stakes.
Anyway, the idea behind this thread is to get a better strike rate, even though it means having fewer bets.
I must say though, it’s just as much fun cheering a horse on to lose as it is to win.:biggrin:
Regards
Bricoman
Keyte’s Nap
3.20 Fakenham
Joly Bey
40.75% Chance – No Bet Today
Against my better judgement but I will go with the system.
Won again, the system’s working in reverse!
I had a chance to analyse six bets at random in December and everyone proved the system ok, even though one lost at 59.63% and one won at 60.88% – just at my cut-off point.
I could do with more data really, could anyone out there help me out?
(Edited by Bricoman at 5:04 pm on Jan. 22, 2003)
Keyte’s Nap
2.20 Southwell
Piccled
16% Chance – No Bet Today
Well, not a very good start, I’ve missed a 6/4 winner, then again I havn’t lost either. He had 0% in four out of the eight categories and has a crap record on the AW and at Southwell in particular – It’s shame nobody told the horse.:biggrin:
Just don’t take any of these selections too seriously until I get a better picture.<br>
(Edited by Bricoman at 3:58 pm on Jan. 21, 2003)
Hi Matron
That one Has a 65.38% Chance (If Alan had picked it)
PS: I’VE NOTICED , YOUR FLYING AT THE MOMENT!!:cool:
