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5/4 System

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  • #1069
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Hi Del, welcome to TRF…. I’ve been following your system on the other board and have used one like it for the last couple of years. For any member that doesn’t know Del, I can vouch for this 100%, he has a superb strike rate and surprisingly they are not all odds on, I believe he had a 5/1 winner yesterday. All the best Del and thanks for sharing it with us….. I think you’ll find this board to be one of the best at present and apart from the odd fracas, quite a friendly little place. You need to watch out for our own Matron, he’s (yes,HE) very quick to dish out the Bromide and old Urban Dave is TRF’s answer to Charlie Caroli, the resident clown. There is also this pillock who keeps covering the board with smiley’s, cant remember his name though….. enjoy your stay Del………<br>:smiley: :smiley: :smiley: :smiley:

    MrE

    #44671
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5823

    Welcome Del. :wave:

    I to have been following your postings on the "other side" and your system has certainly been very profitable . I am member there, but I have not posted for about a couple of years – always got on well with Tony Thurston & Fran. Tony was kind enough to send me some discs once when I was trying to formulate a system with Speedmaster Gold.  

    Look forward to your knowledgeable input on here.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #44672
    JAR
    Member
    • Total Posts 188

    Hi, do you think this staking plan will work with the above system?  I think it might.

    Your aim will be for a target profit, T, of 5 points per race.  Use a bank of 400 points. If the bank = £200 then 1 point = 50 pence.  The first T+A of a game is 2 to 5 points ( about 1% of the bank).   You need a large bank as stakes increase to large values on a losing run. <br> T = Points target for race. <br>  Ac = accumulated win or loss.  <br> T+A = Target + Loss (if losing)<br>OR Target – Gain (if winning)  <br>  S = Stake<br>  R = Result  W = Points <br>To calculate the race stake divide T + half of A by SP forecast odds as odds to 1. <br>eg.

    Race  Target (T+half Ac) odds   stake  result  win loss  Ac<br>1        5          5            6/4        3        L                -3     -3<br>2       10        12           6/4        8        L-              – 8    -11<br>3       15         21          6/4       14       L              -14    -25<br>4        20        33        13/8      20        L              -20    -45<br>5       25         70       13/8       43        L              -43    -88<br>6       30         74         3/1       25        L              -25  -113<br>7       35         92         3/1       31        L              -31  -144<br>8       40       112         3/1       37 W 10/3        +123   – 21<br>9       45        56         2/1       28          L            – 28   – 49<br>10     50        75          5/2      30          L             -30    -79<br>11     55        94          3/1      31          L            – 31 – 110<br>12     60      115          2/1      58     W 2/1      + 116    + 6

    In race 12 since column Ac is a +ve value a profit is made.  At this point profit is withdrawn and a new game is started.  Almost all bets need to be at 6/4 or longer odds.  If stakes start to get too high, after 12 bets, start a new game at lower stakes and a new target of 5 points or 1% of the current bank.  Note the same sequence of wagers at a level stake of 27.33 points (so same money bet) would incur a loss of – 127 points.  The above staking method turned this into a win of + 6 points.  With careful selection to avoid long losing runs, profits are possible with the above staking method. Sometimes a game may be abandoned at 12 wagers to avoid using very high stakes.  This does not happen very often so profits from previous won games should cover this occasional losing run.<br>I know you should not chase losses. But if you cannot pick two winners at short odds from 12 selections you should learn to improve your selection method.<br>Has anyone any better staking plans? If so what are they and why are they better? Will they turn a small level stake loss into a profit like this plan does?<br>Cheers, John:biggrin: <br>______________________________________________<br>

    #44673
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Hi Jar, forget it with this system mate. There are a very large % of odds on shots, 1/4 and 1/5 are not unknown, and some of those get stuffed. I’ve mentioned on other threads that the only sensible way of betting short and maintaining a winning chance at so little risk is to bet "Rolling Doubles". Now I’m back on my old hobby horse about betting short prices, its not always the road to ruin, think about it. If you get 10 winners on the bounce at 1/2, your "rollers" will pull you in a profit of 20 points for a level stake risk of 10 points, you are actually getting a set of 2/1 wins. Yes sure, they could all go WLWLWLWL, but that aint likely. I’m sure that at one point last year, Del had a winning run of 14, I might be overstating that but I don’t think so. If you want to win money on a regular basis, you MUST protect your bank and not do your nuts chasing. If you lose a bit more than a double or two would pull back, go for a treble or 4/5 timer for small stakes, Del gets 4 timers up enough times. Its too hard to come by to risk it Jar, slow and steady is the answer, no quick fixes……..<br>:smiley: :smiley:

    MrE

    #44674
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Sorry Del, posts crossed……. JAR, make that a winning run of 11………..  :biggrin:

    MrE

    #44675
    Urban DaveUrban Dave
    Member
    • Total Posts 629

    Hi Del – fancy seeing you here!

    I’m sure this will go down a storm with any who haven’t seen it before. Top stuff … :biggrin:

    Dave.

    P.S. Don’t listen to anything that MrE fella says – he’s nuttier than squirrel s**t. ;)

    #44676
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Bluster hides a lack of knowledge of the subject under discussion……..

    Hi Del, I do hope that comment wasn’t aimed at me, if it was, your out of order, it wasn’t warranted in any manner……

    MrE<br>        

    #44677
    TROTTER
    Member
    • Total Posts 67

    where do you fid the ratings uf adrian massey & lawrence taylor

    #44678
    kosher
    Member
    • Total Posts 17

    I love it, thanks Dell.

    Are there many more chat rooms? If so does anyone know addresses?

    Thank you.

    #44679
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5823

    Del,

    We do not publish peoples e-mail contact on "open forum" to stop "spamming".

    I have contacted MrE and supplied the relevant info.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #44680
    JAR
    Member
    • Total Posts 188

    Yes Del<br>I don’t know the history of the 5/4 system.<br>Folks are right, my first staking plan is not suitable for a system that produces a large number of selections at odds shorter than 6/4. It has worked ok for me with selections in the range of 15/8 to 4/1.  But these have to be very careful selections.

    Being lazy I also like the simple method of betting 5% of my current bank on each wager.

    From the above postings I gather that the 5/4 method has a high percentage of short odds and odds-on winners.  So I assume it must contain a fair number of consecutive winners.<br>In this case I would use the following plan – (it is not original I’ve seen it in a book somewhere )

    This staking system is for bets with a very high strike rate.  It will work with odds-on and odds-against wagers.<br>Start with a bank of £160 the first stake at the start of the coup is 5% of the bank.<br>When the bank doubles the value of the first stake doubles and stakes are calculated in points rather than £.<br>Write down a series of consecutive numbers from one to 7 for example<br>1 2  3  4  5  6  7     Points.<br>Stake the sum of the first and the last number in the line.<br>Cross these off after a loser, but add the winning stake to the end of the line after a winner.   If the numbers in a line are eventually crossed off, start a new line of 1 to 7.<br>A check out point of about £80 or 80 points must be used – that is when a gain of £80 is reached profit is taken and the game started for a fresh coup with a stake of 8 points (5% of the bank) and a new line of 1 2 3 4 5 6 7<br>Eg.<br>1 2 3 4 5 6 7                £8            Won 2/1            +£519<br>1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8             £9            Won 3/1            +£546<br>1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9        £10             Won 4/6               etc.<br>1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9, 10,   £11           Lost<br>   2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9,          £11          Lost                      +£*<br>      3 4 5 6 7 8               £11         Lost                      +£*

    4  5  6  7                        £11         Won 6/4               +£*<br> 4  5  6  7  11                 £15         Won 2/1               +£*<br>4  5  6  7  11, 15            £19         Won 11/10            +£*<br>4  5  6  7  11  15  19       £23         Lost                      +£*<br>5  6  7  11  15,                £20        Won  4/6              +£*

    After a batch of 4 to 5 winners profit is taken at 80 points.<br>Profit is taken of  £80, and a new line of 1  2  3   4  5  6  7   points started with an initial stake set at 5% of the new current bank.<br>Runs of consecutive wins enable this method to make more than level stakes but a high strike rate is needed to obtain groups of consecutive wins.

    The pitfall with this plan is that you have to use a certain amount of judgement when to start a new game.<br>As soon as a decent profit accumulates it should be taken and a new game started before a losing run wipes it out.

    <br>Cheers, John :biggrin:

    #44681
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Del….. you dont have to defend the system, I know it good, but please allow me the freedom to express my views. I have nothing but praise for you and the system but I felt that with 50% of the winners being odds on, a staking method that involved chasing losses, was a definite ploy to stay away from. If you want to advise JAR to go along that path, then do so, but dont castigate me for airing my thoughts……. this sounds a bit serious, but all this is meant in a friendly manner…… honest……..<br>:smiley: :smiley: :smiley:

    MrE

    #44682
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Oooops, sorry JAR, I didn’t see your post on Page 2…… I’ll have to get a button sewed on my top lip…….<br>:smiley:

    MrE

    #44683
    JAR
    Member
    • Total Posts 188

    Thanks MrE

    My first system does not chase losses beyond 12 bets.<br>The final bet in a game is usually about 10% of the current bank.<br>So the risk of going broke is quite small.<br>If you do go broke with this method chances are you also go broke with any other method over the same series of wagers.<br>Exception being a bank of £10 million quid and bets of 50p at level stakes.<br>Do anyone out there bet this way!!!!

    It’s a sort of compromise between all out chasing losses and being crap at selecting horses.<br>Cheers, John :cheesy:

    #44684
    MatronMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5823

    We will have to call you Zippy MrE. :laugh:

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

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