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Just having a look at this today. I can see Kings Palace and Coneygree cutting each other’s throats up front and something picking them off late on. What that is, I’m not sure.
Coneygree has been infinitely more impressive than Kings Palace but the trends boys (which I am one) will point to the fact that no Feltham winner has followed up in the RSA. This is usually because the RSA becomes a real slog compared to the Feltham – which has been won by speedier horses over the years. This time it’s different – Coneygree looks an absolute bull of a horse, and I can see him running a huge race (if he swerves the Gold Cup).
As for something to stay on late? Not sure. The Young Master looks a stout stayer – but he is only 6 and hasn’t run since the turn of the year (that’ll be the trends side of me rearing its ugly head again). Don Poli would be a danger, but the same applies to him also. Apache Stronghold looks taylor made for this, but sadly connections look to be heading for the JLT.
I’ve backed If In Doubt and Apache Jack at big prices on Betfair. Both are hopefully definite runners, and I think that they will outrun their odds. Mr McCoy will hopefully be on the former, and the latter ran well in the Albert Bartlett (generally a decent guide to the RSA) last year.
I like horses in this who are making their handicap debuts. It hopefully means that the handicapper has underestimated their chances.
I’ve backed Horizontal Speed with this in mind.
However, I can’t go against Stellar Notion as I’ve follwed him all season. Traffic Fluide also impressed LTO.
Add me to the Sego Success camp. Since the change in race conditions, this usually goes to the classier horses. Sego Success showed a willing attitude last time and AK seems bullish.
The handicaps. Ah yes, I’ve spent a good day or so staring at the entries and I’ve come up with a few shortlists before the weights are announced.
GRAND ANNUAL
Ballygarvey (33s)
Gores Island (40s)
Grumeti (25s)
Karinga Dancer (25s)
Royal Regatta (20s)
Turn Over Sivola (25s)
Un Ace (16s)FRED WINTER
Bouvreil (16s)
Ibis Du Rheu (33s)
Jalingo (25s)
Lil Rockefeller (33s)
Saint Lucy (33s)
Sebastian Beach (20s)
Zarib (14s)NOVICE HANDICAP
Bishops Road (25s)
Blood Cotil (16s)
Generous Ransom (12s)
Horizontal Speed (20s)
Noble Emperor (14s)
Oscar Fortune (25s)
Stellar Notion (20s)
Traffic Fleule (20s)FESTIVAL HANDICAP
Buywise (16s)
Clondaw Knight (25s)
Cowards Close (25s)
Diocles (50s)
Knock A Hand (33s)
Le Reve (20s)
Ned Stark (10s)
Smart Freddy (33s)
The Last Samurai (33s)Deputy Dan scratched from the RSA. Little to no chance, is now no chance. Tell Us More looking increasing like he isn’t going either.
Been looking through some more of the novice events this morning, and have made a bit of a shortlist. WIll be doing most of the punting on Betfair to try and burgle a bit of value, otherwise will wait for NRNB.
SUPREME
Jollyallan (£20 at 14.5)
Bentelimar (34/48 on Betfair at minute, yet to back.)ARKLE
Josses Jill (£10 at 16)
Three Kingdoms (28/70)NH CHASE
Sego Success (9/11)
Thunder And Roses (34/80)NEPTUNE
Ordo Ab Chao (23/32)
Vyta Du Roc (65/90)
Windsor Park (16/28)RSA
Kings Palace (5.8/6)
Apache Jack (38/100)JLT
Smashing (26/27)
Un Ace (34/80)Will be putting dribs and drabs on them over the next week or so.
I’m hoping TUM gets it together pretty quickly as I’ve a decent chunk on him for the Neptune. Three weeks is a long time in Mullins land.
Back on topic, I’m hoping it will be Josses Hill in the Arkle. Hopefully people will be saying "how did we let the Supreme second go off 14s in the Arkle".
Needs to learn how to jump first, mind.
My turn last night.
Douvan won the Supreme easily enough, can’t remember what finished behind. Chapman went to interview Mullins after the race, but he refused to comment.
Un De Sceaux won the Arkle, again by a decent margin. However, he was down on his nose at the last, but Ruby held on and he jig jogged the final furlong (his advantage was that large). Again Chappers sought out WPM to no avail.
In the Champion, Faugheen led around the home turn with See You Then in second (no idea how or why), but Faugheen clattered the last and slithered on his belly like Devon Loch. The New One then appeared out of nowhere on the rails and stayed on up the hill to win.
After the race, Chapman again went to interview Mullins who finally broke, saying: "I bet you’re all happy now you bunch of ******* *****" live on channel 4
I then woke up.
I’m now on oddschecker looking for a New One/See You Then forecast.
Morning gents,
RYANAIR – 2pt win, Ma Filleule – 12s with Lads.
And I’ve just read a delightful PM from VTC who informs me that I’m without a Gold Cup pic. In that case:
GOLD CUP – 1pt win, Carlingford Lough – 12s with Lads.
Thanks, Bobby!
ARKLE
Strong trends include:
– Not fallen or UR over fences
– Not aged 9 or over
– Won or placed LTO
– Ran well in a hurdle race at the previous years festival
– Rated 142+ over hurdles
– Not made the running.The starting point for this is obviously Un De Sceaux. He’s the undoubted class horse of the race and deserves to be favourite. However, he’s unbackable now and also falls down on every previous trend. He’s fallen. He’s never run at Cheltenham before. He’s a tearaway front runner. With this in mind, I’ll be looking to back something at a bigger price. Again, the horses below match the above (price in brackets):
– Clarcam (16/16.5)
– Josses Hill (15/16)
– Three Kingdoms (36/180)
– Top Gamble (90/650)
– Vautour (19/30)Top Gamble doesn’t look good enough, and Vautour (who fits every trend) looks more likely to run in the JLT. That leaves three:
Clarcam has been put in his place by UDS, but form has been reversed at the Festival before. Was in the process of running a big race in the Fred Winter last season before tipping up, he is a grade one winner over fences.
Josses Hill has the ideal profile. Finished place in the Supreme, he brushed aside a fair yardstick in Sola Impulse at Donny – his only start over 2miles over fences. However, his jumping has been shocking at times – the shape he makes over fences doesn’t offer much encouragement. However, BJG is adamant that he will run well.
The third on the list is Three Kingdoms. Finished down the field behind Vautour and Josses Hill twelve months ago – he is closely matched with Vibrato Valtat. Showed a willing attitude on ground he hated at Donny when winning LTO.
Josses Hill – £10 at 16 on Betfair.
NB – I may stick up pennies to try and get a silly price about Three Kingdoms.
SUPREME
The winner of the curtain raiser will be:
– Age 5 or 6
– Have run within the last 45 days
– Finished first or second last time out
– An ex bumper horse.The above criteria leaves a shortlist of (with the Betfair prices in brackets):
Bentelimar (48/100)
Jollyallan (13/17)
Morning Run (65)
Velvet Maker (160)The first thing to notice is that the top two in the market are absent from the above list – they miss the stat of not having a run recently enough (and are headed straight for the race according to connections).
Douvan is favourite based on connections and two facile wins earlier in the season. He hasn’t followed the Royal Bond/Deloite path that previous Irish winners took (notably Vautour last year), and I can’t help but think that if Allez Colombieres was still with us, then he probably wouldn’t be aimed at the race. Granted, he’s obviously improved throughout the season and has to be respected, but at the prices I can’t have him.
L’ami Serge has been impressive in soft ground novice hurdles, winning by a big margin last time out over a fair yard stick. Again though, I don’t like the straight-to-the-festival option favoured by connections.
If Shaneshill has another run between now and March 10th then he will also become interesting. He’s currently priced up as though he’s an intended runner – with Nichols Canyon priced as though he’ll be headed to the Neptune.
As it stands though, Jollyallan will be my bet in the race. JP likes a good go at the Supreme, and has a fair bullet to fire this time round. If his jumping can improve, then he must go close.
Morning Run is interesting for WPM – especially with the mares allowance – but it’s very unlikely she would turn up here.
Jollyallan – £20 put up at 17 on Betfair
Will also look to back Shaneshill should he run again between now and then. The other two on the shortlist don’t look good enough.
-£630
I’ve taken a few months off in the New Year, after some losses around Christmas. It’s now time to attack Cheltenham after recharging the betting batteries.
These are the outstanding bets so far for the Festival:
SUPREME
£10 e/w Miles To Memphis @ 33/1
£25 Allez Colombieres @ 10/1
£30 Allez Colombieres @ 10/1NEPTUNE
£30 Tell Us More @ 20/1
RSA
£15 e/w Deputy Dan @ 33/1
£10 e/w Deputy Dan @ 33/1TRIUMPH
£20 Hargam @ 20/1
£20 Kalkir @ 14/1Happy with the position on Hargam – I think he’ll go very close in the Triumph. I also still think that Tell Us More has a major chance in the Neptune – I just hope that Gigginstown let him take his chance.
