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£10 Full Blast 7/2 12:40 Fontwell.
£10 Fruit O’Rooney 13/2 2:10 Fontwell.As per thread on race:
£15 Attaglance 12/1 December Gold Cup
£15 Ericht 12/1 December Gold Cup-£590
Both ran stinkers, soft ground diddled me again. I’ve held bets on the Ladbroke this weekend because I keep backing top of the ground horses in bogs.
I’ve been waiting for Simon Squirrel for a while. Rock The Kasbah has franked the form, and SS ran all over the Hobbs horse on debut.
I’ll give Emerging Talent another chance too, getting weight from his rivals. The horse who beat him last time out went in again in a good event. If he doesn’t win today though, I’m washing my hands of him.
Josses Hill reappears today also. Been waiting for him a while, and the fact that he’s entered in such a hot race on debut surely speaks volumes.
£20 Simon Squirrel @ 8/1
£15 Josses Hill @ 5/4
£15 Emerging Talent @ 2/1-£640
Both ran stinkers, soft ground diddled me again. I’ve held bets on the Ladbroke this weekend because I keep backing top of the ground horses in bogs.
I’ve been waiting for Simon Squirrel for a while. Rock The Kasbah has franked the form, and SS ran all over the Hobbs horse on debut.
I’ll give Emerging Talent another chance too, getting weight from his rivals. The horse who beat him last time out went in again in a good event. If he doesn’t win today though, I’m washing my hands of him.
Josses Hill reappears today also. Been waiting for him a while, and the fact that he’s entered in such a hot race on debut surely speaks volumes.
£20 Simon Squirrel @ 8/1
£15 Josses Hill @ 5/4
£15 Emerging Talent @ 2/1-£640
Re: Emerging Talent
I’m a fan of this horse as well, but this is a decent race and if he gets beaten there may not be any reason to wash your hands of him. The Henderson horse could be anything while Mullins’ horse has high class bumper form, although maybe not one of his best. He was beaten just five lengths at Cheltenham and 11 at Punchestown in the Champion Bumpers and the form of both is working out pretty well thus far. Emerging Talent wants a fast pace to run at imo. These sort of races are unlikely to bring about his peak performance but he could end up well handicapped. A race like the County Hurdle could be made for him. Today’s race is one to watch for me.
I’ve backed the other two you’re on so I hope you have a good day!
Both ran stinkers, soft ground diddled me again. I’ve held bets on the Ladbroke this weekend because I keep backing top of the ground horses in bogs.
I’ve been waiting for Simon Squirrel for a while. Rock The Kasbah has franked the form, and SS ran all over the Hobbs horse on debut.
I’ll give Emerging Talent another chance too, getting weight from his rivals. The horse who beat him last time out went in again in a good event. If he doesn’t win today though, I’m washing my hands of him.
Josses Hill reappears today also. Been waiting for him a while, and the fact that he’s entered in such a hot race on debut surely speaks volumes.
£20 Simon Squirrel @ 8/1
£15 Josses Hill @ 5/4
£15 Emerging Talent @ 2/1-£640
Re: Emerging Talent
I’m a fan of this horse as well, but this is a decent race and if he gets beaten there may not be any reason to wash your hands of him. The Henderson horse could be anything while Mullins’ horse has high class bumper form, although maybe not one of his best. He was beaten just five lengths at Cheltenham and 11 at Punchestown in the Champion Bumpers and the form of both is working out pretty well thus far. Emerging Talent wants a fast pace to run at imo. These sort of races are unlikely to bring about his peak performance but he could end up well handicapped. A race like the County Hurdle could be made for him. Today’s race is one to watch for me.
I’ve backed the other two you’re on so I hope you have a good day!
Just had a small punt on Killultagh Vic, 3/1 is too big I think.
The Blunkett kiss of death – SS runs like a crab.
I’ve put up Menorah in the KG thread – £30 @ 8/1
A few darts at the Welsh National too:
£10 Amigo – 14/1
£10 Benbens – 20/1
£10 Handy Andy – 40/1-£700
—
As the year draws to a close, the ante post position for Cheltenham looks like the following:
SUPREME
£10 e/w Miles To Memphis @ 33/1
£25 Allez Colombieres @ 10/1
£30 Allez Colombieres @ 10/1NEPTUNE
£30 Tell Us More @ 20/1
RSA
£15 e/w Deputy Dan @ 33/1
£10 e/w Deputy Dan @ 33/1TRIUMPH
£20 Hargam @ 20/1
£20 Kalkir @ 14/1A massive mixed bag there, a couple of positives and a fair few negatives. Sherwood needs to teach Deputy Dan how to jump, and never run him over less than 3m again.
Forgot to put up the bet on Stellar Notion in the novice handicap at Kempton. My horse to follow this season, if they look after his mark, then I think he’ll win the novice handicap at the Festival.
£50 Stellar Notion @ 4/1
-£750.
Stellar Notion has done you proud so far Blunkett, hopefully he’ll keep it up through the season.
-£630
I’ve taken a few months off in the New Year, after some losses around Christmas. It’s now time to attack Cheltenham after recharging the betting batteries.
These are the outstanding bets so far for the Festival:
SUPREME
£10 e/w Miles To Memphis @ 33/1
£25 Allez Colombieres @ 10/1
£30 Allez Colombieres @ 10/1NEPTUNE
£30 Tell Us More @ 20/1
RSA
£15 e/w Deputy Dan @ 33/1
£10 e/w Deputy Dan @ 33/1TRIUMPH
£20 Hargam @ 20/1
£20 Kalkir @ 14/1Happy with the position on Hargam – I think he’ll go very close in the Triumph. I also still think that Tell Us More has a major chance in the Neptune – I just hope that Gigginstown let him take his chance.
SUPREME
The winner of the curtain raiser will be:
– Age 5 or 6
– Have run within the last 45 days
– Finished first or second last time out
– An ex bumper horse.The above criteria leaves a shortlist of (with the Betfair prices in brackets):
Bentelimar (48/100)
Jollyallan (13/17)
Morning Run (65)
Velvet Maker (160)The first thing to notice is that the top two in the market are absent from the above list – they miss the stat of not having a run recently enough (and are headed straight for the race according to connections).
Douvan is favourite based on connections and two facile wins earlier in the season. He hasn’t followed the Royal Bond/Deloite path that previous Irish winners took (notably Vautour last year), and I can’t help but think that if Allez Colombieres was still with us, then he probably wouldn’t be aimed at the race. Granted, he’s obviously improved throughout the season and has to be respected, but at the prices I can’t have him.
L’ami Serge has been impressive in soft ground novice hurdles, winning by a big margin last time out over a fair yard stick. Again though, I don’t like the straight-to-the-festival option favoured by connections.
If Shaneshill has another run between now and March 10th then he will also become interesting. He’s currently priced up as though he’s an intended runner – with Nichols Canyon priced as though he’ll be headed to the Neptune.
As it stands though, Jollyallan will be my bet in the race. JP likes a good go at the Supreme, and has a fair bullet to fire this time round. If his jumping can improve, then he must go close.
Morning Run is interesting for WPM – especially with the mares allowance – but it’s very unlikely she would turn up here.
Jollyallan – £20 put up at 17 on Betfair
Will also look to back Shaneshill should he run again between now and then. The other two on the shortlist don’t look good enough.
ARKLE
Strong trends include:
– Not fallen or UR over fences
– Not aged 9 or over
– Won or placed LTO
– Ran well in a hurdle race at the previous years festival
– Rated 142+ over hurdles
– Not made the running.The starting point for this is obviously Un De Sceaux. He’s the undoubted class horse of the race and deserves to be favourite. However, he’s unbackable now and also falls down on every previous trend. He’s fallen. He’s never run at Cheltenham before. He’s a tearaway front runner. With this in mind, I’ll be looking to back something at a bigger price. Again, the horses below match the above (price in brackets):
– Clarcam (16/16.5)
– Josses Hill (15/16)
– Three Kingdoms (36/180)
– Top Gamble (90/650)
– Vautour (19/30)Top Gamble doesn’t look good enough, and Vautour (who fits every trend) looks more likely to run in the JLT. That leaves three:
Clarcam has been put in his place by UDS, but form has been reversed at the Festival before. Was in the process of running a big race in the Fred Winter last season before tipping up, he is a grade one winner over fences.
Josses Hill has the ideal profile. Finished place in the Supreme, he brushed aside a fair yardstick in Sola Impulse at Donny – his only start over 2miles over fences. However, his jumping has been shocking at times – the shape he makes over fences doesn’t offer much encouragement. However, BJG is adamant that he will run well.
The third on the list is Three Kingdoms. Finished down the field behind Vautour and Josses Hill twelve months ago – he is closely matched with Vibrato Valtat. Showed a willing attitude on ground he hated at Donny when winning LTO.
Josses Hill – £10 at 16 on Betfair.
NB – I may stick up pennies to try and get a silly price about Three Kingdoms.
Deputy Dan scratched from the RSA. Little to no chance, is now no chance. Tell Us More looking increasing like he isn’t going either.
Been looking through some more of the novice events this morning, and have made a bit of a shortlist. WIll be doing most of the punting on Betfair to try and burgle a bit of value, otherwise will wait for NRNB.
SUPREME
Jollyallan (£20 at 14.5)
Bentelimar (34/48 on Betfair at minute, yet to back.)ARKLE
Josses Jill (£10 at 16)
Three Kingdoms (28/70)NH CHASE
Sego Success (9/11)
Thunder And Roses (34/80)NEPTUNE
Ordo Ab Chao (23/32)
Vyta Du Roc (65/90)
Windsor Park (16/28)RSA
Kings Palace (5.8/6)
Apache Jack (38/100)JLT
Smashing (26/27)
Un Ace (34/80)Will be putting dribs and drabs on them over the next week or so.
The handicaps. Ah yes, I’ve spent a good day or so staring at the entries and I’ve come up with a few shortlists before the weights are announced.
GRAND ANNUAL
Ballygarvey (33s)
Gores Island (40s)
Grumeti (25s)
Karinga Dancer (25s)
Royal Regatta (20s)
Turn Over Sivola (25s)
Un Ace (16s)FRED WINTER
Bouvreil (16s)
Ibis Du Rheu (33s)
Jalingo (25s)
Lil Rockefeller (33s)
Saint Lucy (33s)
Sebastian Beach (20s)
Zarib (14s)NOVICE HANDICAP
Bishops Road (25s)
Blood Cotil (16s)
Generous Ransom (12s)
Horizontal Speed (20s)
Noble Emperor (14s)
Oscar Fortune (25s)
Stellar Notion (20s)
Traffic Fleule (20s)FESTIVAL HANDICAP
Buywise (16s)
Clondaw Knight (25s)
Cowards Close (25s)
Diocles (50s)
Knock A Hand (33s)
Le Reve (20s)
Ned Stark (10s)
Smart Freddy (33s)
The Last Samurai (33s)
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