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Lost in the ether!

My first attempt to reply Michael disappeared.

Anyway the answer is that I have not got involved with any NH this season because once again the soft and heavy conditions were the reason I started to look elsewhere such as Australia.

Billy's Outback Shack

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I am still trying to keep tabs on what is happening there Michael because I am still unsure when the Autumn changes kick in but it is looking very much like I did the right thing. Roll on our Flat season [proper].

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Missing the boat is perhaps the story of my life Michael but I am not prepared to suffer those long losing runs in order to score the big one.

I think perhaps if say, at a one off race meeting or something similar, as the day I spotted Daphne Jean it can be a coincidence bet and does little or no harm.

Shame you missed it.

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I am pleased to Find LORD KENSINGTON allowed me to close the thread with a winning selection and having taken 13/8 the last few days don’t feel quite so bad.

Billy's Outback Shack

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Having decided to fold my Australian experiment until a new season starts afresh it feels like a good time to close Swimbo down yet again.

I placed a couple of bets before deciding enough is enough: –

TRACTOR FRED 23/10 2.50 Southwell
GOODNIGHT CHARLIE e/w @ 13.08/1 3.35 Warwick

It would be nice to close with a winner.

Billy's Outback Shack

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There can be many reasons why a betting system can turn from being very good to rather poor but my streak looks to have taken such a bad turn. Although this season whilst collaborating with MrE my original ideas have evolved into something very different and therefore last seasons results are unlikely to have any bearing on the current one, however back checking I did find I stopped in February when hitting a very large brick wall.

This past week has been a disaster and so I have decided to stop before I return all my profit to Bet365 and the likes.

MITTA MARY in race 2 at the Sunshine Coast track clawed back a little of the lost profit and I hope LORD KENSINGTON in race 8 at Ballarat will [with a little luck] do likewise on Monday, a bet placed before deciding to hibernate but for the time being will be my last.

If I can get my system for the flat [grass] up and running which based on the Australian system, looks encouraging whilst flirting with the Flat AW I hope to again be posting soon.

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BF -2.04pts

It took some finding but find one I did: –

NICK THE SKIP – R2 Eagle Farm (Australia), 1/2pt. e/w @ 8/1

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If you are tempted with very short priced favourites this could be the one at Meydan.

SPACE BLUES @ 4/6 [may get bigger] in race 3 @ Meydan.

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After a week when mediocre would sound and feel good I am pleased with the 4 selections for Saturday where Son of the Sun looks to get the heart pumping.

SON OF THE SUN – R3 Ascot @ 13/10
LAVERROD – R6 Ascot @ 1/1

RUUCA – R4 Eagle Farm @ SP
EMERALD KINGDOM – R8 Eagle Farm @ SP

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I think I will find a dark room and have a lie down

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I am glad of a respite for Friday after LILLY LIGHT failed at Southwell.

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Bf -2.7pts.

Just like Purwell I am finding it a rather dour slog.

I missed this one LTO and so I wonder if it will make amends for me.

BILLYFAIRPLAY – 8.45 Dundalk e/w @ 5/1 .. .. .. 2nd

CF -2.04pts

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Friday in Australia

I have never understood the reasoning of level stakes, why should the risk be the same on an outsider in the betting as that of a favourite.

To this end I have adjusted my staking mode which builds upon a basic amount with each preferential indicator.

TOSCANINI – R1 Newcatle @ 7/5
*HOLY SUNDAY – R2 Newcastle @ 5/4
TOUCAN SAM – R3 Sunshine Coast @ SP

* HOLY SUNDAY according to my adjusted staking is outstanding, Toucan Sam is next best.

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Thursday

Southwell 2.00 LILLY LIGHT @ 23/20

Not much to say about this one other than it really should do well, ticks & ducks in abundance.

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Bf -1.7pts

PARKERS BOY – 3.10 Southwell 1/2pt e/w @ 15/2 . . . Lost

Cf -2.7pts

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Thursday in Australia

I made a promise to myself I would not play outside of the rules because it would/could distort the true ability of this idea but by keeping such a promise I am allowing what I expect to be a winner to run without my support. So, I hope EDINBURGH goes on to win and then maybe the rules will be adjusted some time later.

BOOTLEG RASCAL – R6 Geraldton @ 9/5
*DEEP BREATH – R2 Kyneton @ 2/1 . . . . . .ABND!
*FLENSBURG – R4 Kyneton @ SP . . . . . ABND!

Both horses at Kyneton will have a boosted stake as EDINBURGH would have.

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Bf -1.7pts

If I wanted to stretch a connection it could have been WILL to WIN at Lingfield 4.30 and although I expect it to do well I am not sure if the selection is within the spirit of Swimbo‘s rules and therefore I will let it pass.

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