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A couple of days ago I put up Little Josh as a good e/w at 40-1. I mentioned that Nigel Twisten-Davies stable was one that liked the occassional punt and if the horse was ready, not having run for a year, they put their money where their mouths are.
Well the 40s have gone, and so today have the 33s. Now best priced at 25-1. I still think this is a good e/w shout at those odds.
Good luck guys
Thanks for the heads up with the weather Beau Ranger, that maybe changes my thinking on the race. I do like to find a bit of value if I can, so can I throw Little Josh into the mix.
He has run 18 times, mainly in decent races, winning 8 times and 2nd twice. Six of his wins have been on heavy (3) or soft (3)It’s little over a year ago that he won the Paddy Power at Cheltenham, beating no less than Long Run by 4 3/4 lengths, albeit he was getting 10lb’s.
His last run, at Cheltenham last january was not bad, but he tired at the end after trying to give lumps of weight to everything in the race bar Noland.
I know the problem is that we would have to take his fitness on trust, not having run for a year, but we know he does like Cheltenham, and if the going is soft or heavy, he will love that too.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is known to have the occasional punt, so I would watch the market carefully. He is 40’s with Coral’s and Stan James and if he is fit enough, I would expect that to drop. I know there are other horses in the race that are better than him, but if he gets the going he wants, 40-1 is huge. I’m having a bit of that e/w thank you very much.
Well not long now till we know who got this one right. I started the thread, and interesting as the comments have been, I still stick to my original choices.
I know Al Ferof still has it to prove at this level, and that PN is looking to the future with him, although I don’t think he would place him in a race that he thought he had no chance of winning. But I am far from certain that he will win, just that I feel he is the likeliest winner if he progresses the way I think he might.
I know poor old forpadytheplasterer has taken a bit of a bashing on here, but I would be more certain of him being placed than I am of Al Ferof winning. I think he will get a good enough pace, and unlike a previous comment, I don’t think he wants to have a lead, I think he wants to sit off the pace and although he may miss a kick at the end, I think this galloping type will still be there or thereabouts.
Less than 2 hours to go, and he is still 12-1 1/4 place odds with VC. I think a cast iron 6/4 return, with the outside chance of the 12-1 win if things go wrong for others…..is does happen in racing.
Good luck guys
Venture to Cognac….Well we weren’t far off the money with American Trilogy. I thought coming to the last that we were booked for fourth, which would have done nicely at 33-1, but Dougie Costello got Well Regarded up on the run in. Costello is having a real purple patch, four seconds and 3 winners in the last 4 days.
I know 5th is as good as 15th, but it somehow feels worse. Oh well.
Well with my first choice not making it to the starting tapes, I’ve gone through them again trying to find something with a bit of value.
To be honest, there isn’t anything that stands out like a sore thumb, and therefore I think it makes sense looking for something that could make the frame at a reasonable price.
American Trilogy’s last win was nearly a year ago, Feb 2011, over course and distance (or 1/2 a furlong short of). He then came out 2 weeks later at Kempton and jumped to the left far too often for his own good, and duly got well humped in a 3 horse race (albeit by Captain Chris). He ran then like a drain at the festival and was pulled up. He finished last season 2nd at Fontwell after having "declined to overtake flat" as it is recorded. Not sounding too good yet is it.
He came back out 10 Dec 2011 and finished 5th (made headway 4 out, no impression after next)Perhaps needed the race….can I make any more excuses for this horse?.
The thing is, I can remember this horse absolutely trouncing a 27 horse field by 11 lengths in the Vincent Obrien County Hurdle at the festival in 2009. I know a huge amount of trust is needed to hope he still retains some of that level of ability, but at 8yrs I’m not sure he is ready for the knackers yard just yet.
Paul Nichols has indicated, in his Betfair column, that he has struggled on right handed courses in the past, mentioning his run against Captain Chris last year, and that it might be that he would do better going left handed.
Well I’m not going to doubt PN, clearly he would be better going left handed, but he has brought him to the course regardless, and he has won here (only C&D winner in the race).
Maybe I’m grasping at straws here, but at 33-1 with PP, I’m not going to need much of a stake to make it worth while, so not a lot to lose. A small interest is all I would risk in this race anyway.
Best of betting luck
J17star….you may well be right, although I thought off a feather weight that he would be worth a e/w. Re the thoughts that he may be more of a stayer, the Lanzarote is 2m 5f, that’s the furthest he will have taken on. Previous runs over 2m, 2m 1f, and once 2m 3F. Perhaps the extra couple of furlongs will suit.
As it happens, I’ve been checking all morning for the prices to come out, i didn’t want to take the anti post, and at 11am bet365 are the first to price up…..looks like secret edge is missing, so it’s all academic now…oh well, back to the drawing board.
I agree, this is a hard race to feel certain about anything winning. I certainly wouldn’t take a short price on anything, but I think that Alan King’s horse, Secret Edge might just have a squeak from 1lb out of the handicap (may well be in handicap proper if a couple at the top don’t run)
He won well at Wetherby in October, and very easily at Fontwell on 6 Dec, albeit in an egg and spoon race.
He was beaten (3rd) in a good race at Chepstow on 27 Dec, but that was his first run on heavy ground and he tired at the finish. The ground at Kempton is shown as good to soft which would be ideal.
He may well have a lot more in hand as a 4 year old, and I think Alan King thinks this is a good horse, he is best priced 16-1 for the Fred Winter at the festival.
Victor Chandler and Paddy Power both have him at 16-1, others are 14’s 12’s and 11-1. He is still anti post today, so it is a chance taking him as he could be withdrawn. Tomorrow they should go non runner money back, but whether he will still be 16-1 I’m not so sure.
I think he is a stonking e/w chance.We could argue this till the cows come home……..moooooooooo!!……..sh*t…..too late.
(case closed methinks)
Accepted thisthatandother. I am happy to put this behind us.
I am off for the weekend now, I hope my small wager on Tanks For That, at Sandown tomorrow, pays for it.
Good luck
GThisthatandother, you wrote…
"I repeat that I’m sorry you are offended, but from where I am you sound a bit pompous"
and previously "BigG, you’re full of it."
Those were the sum total of those two posts, nothing is missing.I simply don’t understand people like you. Not once have I said anything personal or offensive to you. I have merely given my opinion about a horse and yet, you have to make personal demeaning comments.
Why would you go to the effort, in your latter post, of taking the time to say Sorry if you are offended……and then follow it with "you sound a bit pompous?" These are comments which have no other intention but to rile and irritate.
I have had 30 years in the police force, so having sh*t thrown is nothing new to me, I just didn’t expect to find it in a racing forum with like minded people….ie people interested in horse racing.
On horse racing I will be happy to converse and swap opinions with you, but further personal comments I will not respond to.
Thisthatandother, I have repeated myself because that is what I believe, and I have not kept repeating it except when it has been in the context of replying to someone who has further commented. You have equally repeated yourself many times making your point clear, albeit you take a different view from me….I don’t have any problem with that.
You say to me that you don’t want to fall out with anyone either. Then can I suggest that you don’t make comments like "BigG, you’re full of it".
It’s not like I have taken that comment out of context, that was the only thing you wrote.
Some people have agreed with my views on Long Run, and some have not. I have not tried to persuade anyone. As I have said, this is my viewpoint, and as I have stated in my posts more than once, my viewpoint is no better or worse than someone else’s. I thought that was what a forum was for.
Zip, I reckon there’s every chance you would not be losing out on that bet.
Reet hard, we are definitely singing from the same hymn sheet. I think his jumping at the moment is keeping him from being an absolute superstar. He never looks like falling, and as you say has such a great engine that he manages to make up for it between fences, but the ground lost and more importantly the impetus lost by not landing running, is costing him when he comes up against a horse like Kauto Star.I know I’m going to get accused of sounding like a broken record, but I don’t think Sam Waley Cohen gives the horse confidence. I think Long Run has won despite him rather than for him.
Please God, Nicky Henderson, or even the tooth fairy, let Robert and Sam Cohen see that this horse is begging for a top class jockey to ride him. I don’t wish Sam any ill will, but maybe if he had a little bout of gout on the 16th March, we might just get to see how good this horse is.
Getzippy…..many thanks for that, you are right, my response was indeed intended for thisthatandother, re the "BigG, your full of it"
Hurdygurdyman….my apologies for directing the last post at yourself, I mistakingly took it that it was a follow on from our previous posts.
Getzippy, you may well be right, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Kauto Star won the Gold Cup, he is incredible. I would be cheering for him, as I have at every Gold Cup for the past few years, if he did win.
It won’t surprise you to know that I do think that Long Run will win the Gold Cup whether or not SWC rides him, although I have made my feelings on the jockey positon pretty clear.I am so glad Kauto appears in such fine fettle, it adds spice to the Gold Cup. I would rather it was like that, than at the start of the season when, according to the bookies, it looked a one horse race.
Time will tell, but I will doff my cap if Kauto passes the line first.
JAMIEDB, you are of course right, the phrase "reports of my death are greatly exaggerated" would apply to kauto Star. Many, including myself, thought that Kauto’s best days were behind him. It’s hard to say he was as good as he ever was, but he can’t be far off it. I agree with your comments on Grands Crus, but I don’t think there is any chance of him going for the Gold Cup in any case, I think he will win the RSA Chase
Getzippy…thanks again for pointing out my misdirected post.
Hurdygurdyman
Why would you say that? I’m new to this forum, I certainly don’t want to fall out with anyone, and all I have done is give my honest opinion, which is no better than your honest opinion.
I love discussing horses, I think this is an excellent forum and I have enjoyed reading many of your and others posts on here.
That is just uncalled for.
Hello there Hurdygurdyman…and a happy new year to you.
You said…
["You’re miles off the mark mate you really are.
If the Kauto Star of today met Kauto Star Boxing Day 2009 he wouldn’t have got within 15 lengths of him."]
I have to agree with you, Kauto was 11 at this King George, and 8 in 2009. Chasers are at their peak at 8 or 9 so I wouldn’t expect him to retain the ability he had then, although he is still an amazing racehorse.
That being the case, I cannot agree with your comments below
["Long Run is most likely at the peak of his powers right now and give me the impression he’s very unlikely to get much better despite his age. For him to become as good as Kauto Star was he’s going to have to improve round about 20lbs and that is a huge ask if not impossible."]
Long Run was 6 when he ran in this years King George, and he won it last year at 5. He also won the Gold Cup at 6. Kauto Star, amazing horse that he is, won his first King George at 6 and his first Gold Cup at 7. So there is no reason to doubt that Long Run will improve over the next couple of years. The last 6year old to win the Gold Cup was Mill House in 1963.
I have to repeat again, Kauto Star is my favourite horse of all time, he is amazing, but I am being honest when I say that I think Long Run is a better horse than Kauto at the moment. Yes, as you say, jumping is the name of the game, and Kauto did indeed whip his ass fair and square. But I would ask you to be honest about one thing, if Kauto Star had been ridden by Sam Waley Cohen and Long Run had been ridden by Ruby Walsh…..who do you think would have won the race?
My point is, I think Long Run is the best chaser in the country at present. I think he has the potential to win two or three further King George’s and Gold Cup’s. He is an amazing animal, with a non professional jockey riding him. A top notch professional jockey (ie Geraghty in this case) would iron out some of the problems that Long Run shows with his jumping, give him confidence, and simply get the best out of the horse.
I am not bashing Sam, he is a very good amateur, but don’t tell me it would make no difference to put a jockey of Geraghty’s caliber on Long Run. The sad thing is that with Long Run being owned by Sam’s dad, it is unlikely that it is going to happen. From my point of view, I think this does the horse a disservice.
Like I said before, if Long Run was not owned by Robert Waley Cohen, do you think there would be any chance whatsoever that Nicky Henderson would contemplate putting Sam on the horse ahead of Geraghty. The reason he wouldn’t, is that top jockeys improve horses and win big races. Long Run has already won a King George and Gold Cup with an amateur on his back, so what could he achieve by having a better jockey on him?…..I am afraid we might never find that out.
