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Well back from my weekend away …but not any richer
Well done Zamorston….well picked out.
I actually thought with 3 fences to go that my big odds punt, Little Josh (40s…..down to 16s) was in with a good shout. With 2 fences to go i thought ….Oh well, it looks like a place.
Between the last 2 he tamely died away. Maybe the year off was just too much, but to be honest, although no return, I thought he ran a bloody good race but tired at the end. I’m going to give him another chance.3m 2f is the furthest he has ever gone, and until 2 out, he was still bang there and had travelled really nicely. He is entered in the Gold Cup (not a hope in h.ell) and the Ryanair. I think the 2m 5f of the Ryanair might be right up his street. He likes Cheltenham, and has won at 2m4f here before. 33-1 is still available but I don’t think that will last long. Corals cut him from 33s to 16 today. Totesport and Betfred still stand him at 33s.
Hope some of you took a leaf out of Zamorston’s book and backed midnight chase at the weekend.
Thanks for that Millbear, all is now clear….well sorta
I’m off for the weekend now….check in when I get back Sunday night. Hope Cheltenham is good to us all
Good luck
I just wondered why the time of my last message is showing as 1729, when it is just after 4.30pm now?…..Is this site based outside the UK?
Just a thoughtThx Millbear
I understand what you say, it’s not a handicap so its not like they have kept the best till the big day. I happen to think this is a very good horse in his own right, and if the conditions come up soft, he will love that.
Actually his price was 40’s after after Grands Crus had withdrawn, and nothing much of any note in the race has withdrwan….all the big guns are there.
VC dropped him from 33s to 25s today at 1232. Corals, who were 40s after Grands Crus came out are now 20s. On checking at the moment, blue square and 888, just cut him from 25s to 18s at 1618.
I’m not saying this is not a stepping stone to the national, but I think he has more than a fair chance of a place if he is fit. Normally when NTD knows a horse is up to giving a good show, it often is reflected in the market, that’s all I said to watch out for on Wednesday (after Grands Crus came out)
Good luck
PS I see as we speak that Skybet have just cut him from 25s to 22s (at 1622)
A couple of days ago I put up Little Josh as a good e/w at 40-1. I mentioned that Nigel Twisten-Davies stable was one that liked the occassional punt and if the horse was ready, not having run for a year, they put their money where their mouths are.
Well the 40s have gone, and so today have the 33s. Now best priced at 25-1. I still think this is a good e/w shout at those odds.
Good luck guys
Thanks for the heads up with the weather Beau Ranger, that maybe changes my thinking on the race. I do like to find a bit of value if I can, so can I throw Little Josh into the mix.
He has run 18 times, mainly in decent races, winning 8 times and 2nd twice. Six of his wins have been on heavy (3) or soft (3)It’s little over a year ago that he won the Paddy Power at Cheltenham, beating no less than Long Run by 4 3/4 lengths, albeit he was getting 10lb’s.
His last run, at Cheltenham last january was not bad, but he tired at the end after trying to give lumps of weight to everything in the race bar Noland.
I know the problem is that we would have to take his fitness on trust, not having run for a year, but we know he does like Cheltenham, and if the going is soft or heavy, he will love that too.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is known to have the occasional punt, so I would watch the market carefully. He is 40’s with Coral’s and Stan James and if he is fit enough, I would expect that to drop. I know there are other horses in the race that are better than him, but if he gets the going he wants, 40-1 is huge. I’m having a bit of that e/w thank you very much.
Well not long now till we know who got this one right. I started the thread, and interesting as the comments have been, I still stick to my original choices.
I know Al Ferof still has it to prove at this level, and that PN is looking to the future with him, although I don’t think he would place him in a race that he thought he had no chance of winning. But I am far from certain that he will win, just that I feel he is the likeliest winner if he progresses the way I think he might.
I know poor old forpadytheplasterer has taken a bit of a bashing on here, but I would be more certain of him being placed than I am of Al Ferof winning. I think he will get a good enough pace, and unlike a previous comment, I don’t think he wants to have a lead, I think he wants to sit off the pace and although he may miss a kick at the end, I think this galloping type will still be there or thereabouts.
Less than 2 hours to go, and he is still 12-1 1/4 place odds with VC. I think a cast iron 6/4 return, with the outside chance of the 12-1 win if things go wrong for others…..is does happen in racing.
Good luck guys
Venture to Cognac….Well we weren’t far off the money with American Trilogy. I thought coming to the last that we were booked for fourth, which would have done nicely at 33-1, but Dougie Costello got Well Regarded up on the run in. Costello is having a real purple patch, four seconds and 3 winners in the last 4 days.
I know 5th is as good as 15th, but it somehow feels worse. Oh well.
Well with my first choice not making it to the starting tapes, I’ve gone through them again trying to find something with a bit of value.
To be honest, there isn’t anything that stands out like a sore thumb, and therefore I think it makes sense looking for something that could make the frame at a reasonable price.
American Trilogy’s last win was nearly a year ago, Feb 2011, over course and distance (or 1/2 a furlong short of). He then came out 2 weeks later at Kempton and jumped to the left far too often for his own good, and duly got well humped in a 3 horse race (albeit by Captain Chris). He ran then like a drain at the festival and was pulled up. He finished last season 2nd at Fontwell after having "declined to overtake flat" as it is recorded. Not sounding too good yet is it.
He came back out 10 Dec 2011 and finished 5th (made headway 4 out, no impression after next)Perhaps needed the race….can I make any more excuses for this horse?.
The thing is, I can remember this horse absolutely trouncing a 27 horse field by 11 lengths in the Vincent Obrien County Hurdle at the festival in 2009. I know a huge amount of trust is needed to hope he still retains some of that level of ability, but at 8yrs I’m not sure he is ready for the knackers yard just yet.
Paul Nichols has indicated, in his Betfair column, that he has struggled on right handed courses in the past, mentioning his run against Captain Chris last year, and that it might be that he would do better going left handed.
Well I’m not going to doubt PN, clearly he would be better going left handed, but he has brought him to the course regardless, and he has won here (only C&D winner in the race).
Maybe I’m grasping at straws here, but at 33-1 with PP, I’m not going to need much of a stake to make it worth while, so not a lot to lose. A small interest is all I would risk in this race anyway.
Best of betting luck
J17star….you may well be right, although I thought off a feather weight that he would be worth a e/w. Re the thoughts that he may be more of a stayer, the Lanzarote is 2m 5f, that’s the furthest he will have taken on. Previous runs over 2m, 2m 1f, and once 2m 3F. Perhaps the extra couple of furlongs will suit.
As it happens, I’ve been checking all morning for the prices to come out, i didn’t want to take the anti post, and at 11am bet365 are the first to price up…..looks like secret edge is missing, so it’s all academic now…oh well, back to the drawing board.
I agree, this is a hard race to feel certain about anything winning. I certainly wouldn’t take a short price on anything, but I think that Alan King’s horse, Secret Edge might just have a squeak from 1lb out of the handicap (may well be in handicap proper if a couple at the top don’t run)
He won well at Wetherby in October, and very easily at Fontwell on 6 Dec, albeit in an egg and spoon race.
He was beaten (3rd) in a good race at Chepstow on 27 Dec, but that was his first run on heavy ground and he tired at the finish. The ground at Kempton is shown as good to soft which would be ideal.
He may well have a lot more in hand as a 4 year old, and I think Alan King thinks this is a good horse, he is best priced 16-1 for the Fred Winter at the festival.
Victor Chandler and Paddy Power both have him at 16-1, others are 14’s 12’s and 11-1. He is still anti post today, so it is a chance taking him as he could be withdrawn. Tomorrow they should go non runner money back, but whether he will still be 16-1 I’m not so sure.
I think he is a stonking e/w chance.We could argue this till the cows come home……..moooooooooo!!……..sh*t…..too late.
(case closed methinks)
Accepted thisthatandother. I am happy to put this behind us.
I am off for the weekend now, I hope my small wager on Tanks For That, at Sandown tomorrow, pays for it.
Good luck
GThisthatandother, you wrote…
"I repeat that I’m sorry you are offended, but from where I am you sound a bit pompous"
and previously "BigG, you’re full of it."
Those were the sum total of those two posts, nothing is missing.I simply don’t understand people like you. Not once have I said anything personal or offensive to you. I have merely given my opinion about a horse and yet, you have to make personal demeaning comments.
Why would you go to the effort, in your latter post, of taking the time to say Sorry if you are offended……and then follow it with "you sound a bit pompous?" These are comments which have no other intention but to rile and irritate.
I have had 30 years in the police force, so having sh*t thrown is nothing new to me, I just didn’t expect to find it in a racing forum with like minded people….ie people interested in horse racing.
On horse racing I will be happy to converse and swap opinions with you, but further personal comments I will not respond to.
Thisthatandother, I have repeated myself because that is what I believe, and I have not kept repeating it except when it has been in the context of replying to someone who has further commented. You have equally repeated yourself many times making your point clear, albeit you take a different view from me….I don’t have any problem with that.
You say to me that you don’t want to fall out with anyone either. Then can I suggest that you don’t make comments like "BigG, you’re full of it".
It’s not like I have taken that comment out of context, that was the only thing you wrote.
Some people have agreed with my views on Long Run, and some have not. I have not tried to persuade anyone. As I have said, this is my viewpoint, and as I have stated in my posts more than once, my viewpoint is no better or worse than someone else’s. I thought that was what a forum was for.
