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Hi Gingertipster
I liked your summery on Seabass, it was very fair.
I fancy Seabass a lot, as I’ve said a few times on this thread. The one thing I would take issue with is that you think if it is soft or heavy he won’t stay. I accept there is an arguement that he is untested at this distance and might not stay, personally I feel that he will, but as I said in an earlier post, that’s just my gut feeling having watched his races. However I don’t think it being soft or heavy is an issue, he loves those conditions.
If he doesn’t stay, then he doesn’t stay, but I don’t think it will be because of his favoured heavy ground. I think Ted Walsh would have a good idea if he stays, I think he in a realistic down to earth kind of guy . I know Papillon was some time ago, but he has been there and done it.
I would so love for Ruby to ride him, but I don’t know what the chances of that are.
Best of luck Ginger
10 day weather forecast indicates rain every day from next Sunday, up to and including Saturday 14th, in the Liverpool area.
They may be wrong, but if it is correct, it brings in a few heavy ground specialists. It certainly won’t inconvenience Seabass, who I’m very keen on anyway, and at much bigger odds Le Beau Bai if it gets very wet.
Paddy Brennan to ride Vic Venturi if he gets in. More reasons to get excited about him.
O’Regan is on board Black Apalachi once more, which i must confess surprises me as Giles Cross would have been my first guess over his preferred ride.
Do you reckon Giles Cross will even run if the ground comes up good to soft?
Hi Peter
Personally I don’t think that Giles Cross will line up in the National. I don’t think he will get the ground he needs, and I think Victor Dartnall is only being slightly tempted because he is 6lbs well in with the handicapper. To be honest, I’m not confident about him getting the trip. The furthest he has won is 3m4f, although he was second over 3m6 in the Welsh national and second in the Eider over 4m1f, but he was pretty much out on his feet at the end. I think he will head for the Irish national.
I think that is why O’Regan has plumped for Black Apalachi. I’ve always thought Black Apalachi looked a National type, and I bet him three years ago when he unseated when going well, and two years ago when he ran a cracker to be second. I can’t bring myself to bet him this year, despite his good return run at Fairyhouse in February, after being off for two years. Good horse as he is, I don’t think a 13 year old will win this. The last one to manage that was Sergeant Murphy in 1923.
Vic Ventura’s run at Leopardstown in February, didn’t look like the Vic ventura of old to me. He had run, and won twice, in a couple of NH Open races in January, which didn’t ammount to more than egg and spoon races, but they should have had him fit enough. If he can bounce back to some of his 2011 and 2010 form, he would have a squeek, but it’s too much of an ask for me to have any confidence.
I’ve already nailed my colours to the mast earlier on here with Seabass. I said I didn’t think the 20s would last…..best priced at 16s now.
Best of luck peter, this looks tougher than usual this year,with lots of very fancied runners. Lets hope we can bag one.
I’ll be surprised if Ruby chooses
THE MIDIGHT CLUB
after what his comment last year just after finishing.
Ruby Walsh (The Midnight Club, sixth): "I was struggling before we were hampered heading to the final bend. We nearly fell at the third and after that he was jumping a little too big, but we just weren’t good enough."
Reading between the lines of that Ruby quote, isn’t this be more like the true meaning?
"I don’t want to say anything positive, because then the handicapper is more likely to drop his mark".
True though, The Midnight Club hasn’t really jumped or travelled with great fluency this season. Seems attractively handicapped, but On His Own and Seabass looking other alternatives for Ruby.
In my view (for what’s it’s worth) I think Ruby best chance lies with
and I can’t see any other Willie Mullins horses been good enough.
As for The Midnight Club I hope he doesn’t hurt himself but I don’t think it’ll finish.
This is just my view.
I hear what you say Red Rum…a few have said that Seabass won’t stay. I know the arguments, most of his races have been at shorter than might be seen as ideal, and I know this is just my gut instinct speaking, but I think he looks like a horse that will handle further. I like the way he finishes off his races.
I know it is a bit of a leap of faith, but I’m prepared to go with him, and I have taken the 20s before it disappears. It’s still there with Ladbrokes and VC, but i don’t think it will be there long, especially if Ruby decides to ride him.
I think Ted Walsh knows his onions, having trained a National winner, and if he is sending him over then that’s as much of an indication that I need.
It’s shaping up to be the type of race where you could pick 10 horses, and still not get a place. Good luck guys.
Wilsonl….its on more4, and skysports 4
I’m hoping that Monterosso is a good e/w betat 20-1, I’m not too keen to take 11/8 with So You Think, even though I’d like to see him win.
Yes
indeed Miss W. but who am I to complain .I’ve reinvested a bit on Seabass at 20-1 in the Grand National. It’s still on offer at 20s with Ladbrokes and Victor Chandler, but I don’t think that will last too long, especially if Ruby decides to ride him now that Prince De Beauchene has been pulled out.
Wilsonl….its on more4, and skysports 4
I’m hoping that Monterosso is a good e/w betat 20-1, I’m not too keen to take 11/8 with So You Think, even though I’d like to see him win.
**Warning, contains strong language**
Please remove if offending anyone…..
Absolutely priceless Zamorstan, alhough obviously someone has got too much time on their hands
.I never thought I would hear myself say (or write this) but I agree pretty much with Hitler…..well on most of it. I can’t have that slagging of JP or jonjo….but the rest I pretty much go along with, even down to Mccoy’s long face (I’d never thought about that one till he mentioned it)
The Waley Cohens are perfectly entitled to put who they want on their horse. However, we are most certainly not seeing Long Run at his best. The horse would be a tricky ride for Barry, AP, or Ruby and SWC has shown himself to be a very good amateur jockey in winning a GC and a KG on him. But what brave men they would be if they were to say, we have had our fun maybe we should try something different and let BG have a go. Think it will probably be down to SWC to be the man and say to his dad I am a big enough man to let someone else have a go. I think everyone who matters in racing would have massive respect were he to make such a decision, I hope he does. Congratulations to JP, without his generosity where would jump racing be? I would suggest up the amazon with a toothpick as a paddle!!!!
I am with you on this Paddy, I think the horse is a very good horse who has done exceptionally well, despite, rather than because of SWC. I don’t understand why this horse gets the bashing he gets from some people. He wins the Gold Cup, the King George, and has never been out of the frame in any race he has raced in.
He clearly was below form in the Gold Cup, finishing behind the Giant Bolster, whom he completely trounced at Newbury last time, giving him 4lbs.
I don’t think, and I’ve said this before, that Sam sets him right for many of his fences, and he is tactically unaware. He was fairly beaten by Long Run in the King George this year, but I don’t think Geraghty would have allowed Ruby to steal a march on Kauto, which is what he did. I know some will counter this with Long Run not being able to go with him. Actually that is a fair point for some to raise, but I’m not so sure that is the case, and like you I think that a top jock, in this case Geraghty, would have this horse jumping and traveling better.
The plaudits handed to Kauto Star after the King George were were rightly given. It was said he was the greatest chaser (no problem accepting this) of all time, and that he was right back to his very best.
Long Run finishes 1 1/4 lengths behind "the greatest chaser", who is "right back to his best", closing him down at the finish….and by some accounts, he is little better than a donkey?????. I simply don’t understand the bile that’s been spouted by some about this horse.
I hope that next year, Sam does the right thing and stands aside, I think it depends on whether he wants the horse to do well, or whether he just enjoys his time riding a high profile horse in top races, which he would never get from any trainer, other than his father owns the horse.
Before people have a go at me about berating SWC. Let me put that straight. I like SWC, he seems a perfectly nice guy. I also think that he is a decent jockey for an amateur. But anyone who thinks it would not make any difference putting Geraghty, instead of SWC on the horse, is in denial. If it made no difference, then you might as well stick Wilson Renick or Richie McGrath (decent jocks as they are) on Big Bucks or Simonsig.
The fact of the matter is that top jockeys are top jockeys for a reason. They are better than the others at getting horses settled, keeping them in the best position in the race, and seeing the right stride before a jump. They give a horse confidence.
I know I am going to get shot at by a few on here, who dislike, or appear to dislike Long Run, but before they do, can I point out that I am giving my honest opinion on the matter, and I would like to point out that I had no money on LR, so I am not speaking out of my pocket.
I agree with you Paddy, I think it is for Sam to say to his dad that perhaps he should step aside, but i won’t hold my breath.
I agree Jibsa, I thought she was a good thing to be in the shake up at least. I’m afraid the writing was on thw wall from very early on, the horse was never traveling at any time in the race, I don’t think she was ever better placed that 3rd last !!!
It’s one thing getting beat, I think we all know that feeling, but not even getting a run is what pi***ss me off. I can only think that something wasn’t right with the horse. That’s racing I suppose
Posh Bird was my idea of the winner. She’s proved decent since being stepped up to extended trips. However, she’s too short a price now for me.
My quiet one in this is HONOURABLE ARTHUR, not disgraced over 3m 5f and hinting that this trip won’t be a problem. Trained by one of my favourites in Vic Dartnall, this one is lightly raced but has a fair win record. Backed at 26 on Betfair.
Rob
I’m with you on this Rob. I was going to back back Posh Bird last night, there were a couple of 10s, and 9s at VC where I intended having my bet. I thought I would be alright leaving it to the morning. Thank god I was on the machine early, I could see the prices were tumbling. I managed to grab some 8-1 with WH at 8.43 am…it was gone 2 mins later. I went back in and grabbed some 7-1 with VC, which didn’t last long either. The best left now is 11-2.
I backed her in the Eider, where she ran a great race and I thought she looked the winner from about 1 mile out….until the last few yards when Denis O’Regan rode a perfect race on Portrait King and nicked it.
Posh Bird has gone up 5lbs for that race, but with Lucy Alexander taking the 5lbs back off, she has to have a great chance off 10st. I hope we are both celebrating around 3.30.
It was a little bit disconcerting watching attheraces this afternoon. In the studio, Sean Boyce’s guest, can’t remember his name, was chatting about being at a Chelt preview night with Alan King on the panel.
He said that King was fairly bullish about all his horse….with the exception of Hold On Julio !!!!. Apparently he thought his price did not reflect his chance, and he hadn’t got the horse back to the same form as he was at the time of his last win. Apparently he has had some problems with his training.
If that is the case, I’ve not heard a dicky bird about it. He has the additional weight on his shoulders of my meagre wager, which I don’t think will bother him, or the bookies for that matter.
Anyone heard anything, has this guy made this sound more serious than King intended?
I would have thought that King would have pulled him out of the race if he thought he wasn’t completely fit for it.
It’s not really what you want to hear the day before the bloody festival
Hi Chelt Specialist….don’t worry, I’m an old hand at this. I am aware that more often than not, your free bet is sometimes spread over a period of time, and sometimes is tied into you having so many bets (you qualify after having spent a specified amount)or you get your free bet (stake not included if you win) after your bet has been settled.
The offer with Coral’s is probably the most straightforward I have seen. You open and account, place a bet and within 24hours of placing the bet, regardless if you win lose or your bet hasn’t yet run, you are credited with £50, or however much your first bet was, up to £50 that is.
What can I say…hats off to Coral’s for playing it straight.
Nice piece Rob. I do like the look of Tap Night, he looked decent beating Captain Conan at Kelso last time out. I think the 20-1 on offer in the Coral Cup is a very realistic e/w bet.
Bold Sir Brian has a shout too, he didn’t beat too much last time out at Musselburgh, but the way he did it was very impressive. 25-1 looks big.
Chelt Specialist, you know my feelings on Hold on julio, I think he is one of the best bets of the meeting. Coral’s 7-1 is too good to turn down. It’s one of the few bookmakers I don’t have an account with ,and as they are offering to match bets up to £50, I might just open one, stick my 50 quid on him, and then stick the additional 50 quid on him too. Makes it 14-1 for my £50 bet. Sounds good to me.
Good luck at the festival my Scottish amigos.
(Englandshire
….oh you are naughty CS….but I like you)I agree completely with you CS, the way he finishes is so impressive that I also have no fear that he will power away up the Cheltenham hill. I would be happy going over the last if he is within a few lengths of the leading horse. Again I agree, even with the 11lb raise after Sandown, I think he is still well ahead of the handicapper.
I did watch the two races at Sandown, and the one at Kelso prior to them. If you watch, I think you will see that he did make a couple of blunders, and a few sketchy jumps….commented on by the commentator, he is however clever as you point out, and as I mentioned he has never looked like coming down.
I’m excited about seeing him at Cheltenham, he really could be quite some horse.
The Horse that I am really keen on here is Hold On Julio. The only thing that stops me short of thinking he might be the best bet of the meeting, is that his jumping looks sketchy at times. Admittedly he has never looked like he was going to come down, but he definitely clouts the occasional fence and at times I think he jumps flat.
He is very unexposed, and for a 9year old he has done very little racing, point to point aside. He was put up another 11lbs for his recent win at Sandown (7th Jan) but I still think the handicapper has not anywhere near caught up on him.
As I said, in the Sandown race he chested through 2 fences in the early part of the race, and went through the 4th last too, albeit he didn’t look like coming down. After the last, the way he absolutely pulled clear of the field was so impressive.
In his previous race, also at Sandown (5th Nov 2011) he did the same, jumped not too bad, but certainly not inspiring, however it was again after the last that he again, in a few strides, completely destroyed the field. Both races were wide margin victories (9 lengths & 11 lengths), which is impressive considering he was level jumping the last in both. The last race in particular was a very decent race, and he ran away from some very good horses.
Obviously it’s a worry with a large field and the Cheltenham fences. However, if he takes to them, and I’m sure Alan King will have been doing a lot of work on his jumping, he is a very good bet at 13-2 with Corals (6-1 general). I think he is worth the risk and he gets my money.
Good job by Paintball there, but it’ll be tight as to whether he gets in the County Hurdle.
Nampour paid a helluva compliment to Balgarry by being second after forcing the pace for so long.
Ted Spread caught my eye moving well and Ruby Walsh’s excuse for defeat was that the horse disliked the dead ground. Any of the Swinton, Scottish Champion Hurdle or a handicap hurdle at Aintree would be interesting targets for him.
Yes he won it very well. I can’t say I saw it coming, and even when I do my usual post mortem after the race…..that moment when you say "oh yes….I could have picked that one out", I still couldn’t say I would have picked him out.
I’m not making excuses, well I suppose I am a bit, but the ground did play it’s part. As I wrote earlier, before the race, I had gone off my original bet, Lucaindubai, because i knew the ground wasn’t going to suit him. That’s the danger of ante post, no guarantee you get the ground you need.
I knew the writing was on the cards for my alternative pic Celtus, who was going ok just behind the leaders when he made a mistake 2 out, and Barry Geraghty obviously deciding he wasn’t going to win after that, wasn’t hard on him.
So not what I was hoping just before Cheltenham, I’m presently scrambling through the Market Rasen and Warwick cards….not the most inspiring racing two days before the festival
