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Hey Big G – Well a few more sneaked in at the bottom of the weights than I expected.
Nice to see Our Jonathan get in. Can he do a Funfair Wane and retain his crown? I think he can. The Portland run will have put him spot on, ground conditions will be ideal and he is nicely handicapped. I’m tempted to top up at 25/1 each way 5 places.
I’m happy to leave Gabriel’s Lad having nicked the 20s.
Baccarat catches my eye but there’s better value elsewhere with Mass Rally at 20/1. He has a big handicap in him but a mark of 105 may just stretch him.
It’s certainly a fantastic puzzle to try and solve!!
Hi Oasis I think Our Jonathon has a a real chance, I’ve backed Highland Colori, and after my latest run in with Coral, who wouldn’t take the bet on Our Jonathan as I mentioned earlier, I had no problem with getting on at Betvictor. I didn’t get the 33s that Coral was offering, but I got 28s, and another place (on 19th Sep). I hope you took the 25s if you topped up, I see he’s best priced 20s now. Still value at that I think.
I could add another Coral saga, about the Bronze Cup today, but I’m sure people would start to think I’ve been sniffing substances or just making it up……I’ve written to Coral.
Best of luck
Fearless Freddie would be turning in his grave – your record of events is simply pathetic from Corals point of view. On Saturday I will await the proclamations of "One of the great betting races, punters v bookies etc".
Back to the race – Lover Man is in and Tom Eaves is booked. Interesting.
Too true Peruvian, I don’t think he would have believed it. I had the good fortune to put a bet on with Freddie when he was on his pitch at Perth quite some years ago. Just so I could say that I had bet with him, even though it would have been a paltry figure by his standards. The man was a legend.
I agree with your assessment of Lover Man, he has shown some class in good races in France, will like the ground and Keith Dalgleish is making a name for himself as a smart trainer. I’m surprised you can still get 33-1 with VC Boylesports and Coral. VC are now going first five, its too tempting so although I’ve already got Highland Colori and Our Jonathan, I’m adding him to my betting stable, I hope that’s not the kiss of death for you
Coral ……Fu**###!!!!****####
I couldn’t type what I’d want to say about them…..you won’t believe this.
As a back up to Highland Colori, and after praising up Coral for actually taking the full bet, I decided to have a back up with Our Jonathan.
Coral were offering 33-1, (only Boylesport match this) and I tried to place £15 ew. The usual "your bet is being considered by the traders" and after a minute I was offered….wait for it…£1 at 33-1 !!!! WTF. That’s the worst yet, but there’s more. I waited a couple of minutes and thought I would have another go at £10 ew. I swear I’m not making this up, the message I got was "Stake too high. The maximum stake on this bet is £0.15"
Are they just having a laugh, or is there something very wrong with Coral, they are the only bookmaker that I have found who have rejected bets at the size I regularly put on. Has anyone else had this problem?
Plan B……I’m lumping on Highland Colori, he is in very good fettle at the moment, having won last time out, although it was only a four horse race.
Downside is that he’s running off the highest mark he has run off (104) although Balding has a good claimer on him with Oisin Murphy who takes 5lbs off his back.
Upside is that he will handle any ground, and was short headed in last year’s Silver Cup on heavy ground.
20-1 at Coral, that’s the best price on offer, and surprise surprise, after my previous comments about problems getting my full bet on with Coral, they took it without restricting it to a smaller stake. Maybe they got fed up of me complaining I couldn’t get my full bet on
Looking forward to this race…..but not as much as the jumps season which is all but upon us.
Good luck
Well that’s it……the rain Gods were too late (now raining heavily)
Oasis, you will be glad to hear that Our Jonathan made the cut, the last one in was Majestic Miles.
I get my money back, so it’s back to the drawing board, I’m inclined towards Gabriels Lad, as pointed out by Oasisdreamer, well done Oasis getting the 20-1, he’s best priced 12s at the moment with the new market, a couple of bookies still to mark up the race.
Going at Ayr is now soft. It’s still raining, but not as hard as I was expecting (or hoping for). Getting a bit worried now that its not going to get as heavy as I anticipated and therefore more horses will stay in. Colonel Mak is looking a bit dicey now.
Come on you rain Gods
Oasis, I like the look of Gabriel’s Lad, unlucky last time at ascot and a good win at Newmarket before that. Those were both on GF ground, but he has won on soft so ground shouldn’t be a problem.
I think you are pretty safe with Our Jonathan, he needs 7 to drop out and I think there will be more than that. A previous Gold Cup winner, so if he’s in the mood he has every chance.I hope your not willing that wind to blow
I like the look of Shot From The Hip. He won very easily last time out at Killarney off a mark of 129 and has had 8lbs put on for that as he was impressive. He has won before off a mark of 135 so I don’t think that 137 will be that much of a problem.
Very much in form and will like the ground. Plenty of 14-1 available and has to have a good shout.
VTC, I like the look of Double Seven too, my only worry with him is that his improvement in form over the past three runs has been on good ground. If he handles it being soft,he would be a strong contender.
I can’t see Colonel Mak getting in. By my reckoning he needs about 20 to come out.
I like the look of two former winners, Regal Parade and Our Jonathan, but they also need 7/8 to come out.
Of those guaranteed a run I like Shropshire but slight concern he’s creeped up the handicap too much. He’s also been on the go since early season whilst I do like to see one primed for Ayr. I’ve just about talked myself out of backing him there but 25/1 is decent value IMO.
I agree there has to be a mass exodus for him to get in, and all things being normal I doubt that he would. However if the ground is going to be as I expect it to be, heavy at best, I think there will be a lot of horses who are not going to waste a journey from down south and those that just won’t go in the ground. If he doesn’t make the cut, there’s nothing lost, as I know you will be aware that stakes will be returned (unless he’s withdrawn on health grounds). It’s a small risk, but you pays your money you takes your chance.
Rich, I’m down in Dunoon at the moment (about 30 odd miles as the crow flies across the water from Ayr) and its been chucking it down most of the day. Showers due tomorrow, Wed and and more persistent rain on Thursday. Friday and Saturday should be better but I feel the rain will be in the ground by then.
The going report from the BHA today at 0845 now has the ground as soft. The course hasn’t been taking the rain too well this year and some racing has been lost as a result.
I agree with you that Colonel Mak will revel in the conditions, he also loves the track, and as I mentioned, he was 4th and 5th the last two years off 99, and won the Silver Cup the previous year. He now runs off 95. He seems to have been running around Ayr for years, but is still only 6 years. Betvictor and Coral still go 33-1, there’s no chance that will be available if he gets in. I think that will be likely with ground conditions and the withdrawls as a result. Only down side to taking him now is that you are likely to get 5 places offered on Saturday. I think it’s worth the chance to get the price.
Rich, I see you replied whilst I was still typing my last post out, so I now realise that you are well aware of the possible problem with the ground conditions. A wise move to wait and see what the conditions are like….ignore my previous pointing out of the problem.
Good luck
I think something rated in the 90s will have the best chance and a horse trained by Dandy Nicholls as he is due a big sprint win. Rodrigo De Torres fits the bill for me after an encouraging run at Ripon last time.
A brave shout Rich, considering his record in the race last year and the Silver Cup the year before (25 of 26 and 23 of 24 respectively) but there’s no doubting he goes into it in much finer fettle this year, after a fine win in the Scottish Stewards Cup and a good race at Ripon. My main worry would be that last years race was on heavy and the silver cup the year before was on soft. I’m not sure he wants the type of ground he’s likely to encounter.
Like my fancy, Colonal Mak (48th in racecard), he needs a few to come out (51st), but with the conditions I think there will be enough withdrawn to get both horses in, probably even Summerinthecity (56th) for VTC and Peruvian, if they still fancy him.
Good luckInteresting call Peruvian, especially Lover Man. I knew nothing of this horse and there is no doubt he has shown very good form in decent races. He also has good form on very soft ground in France so no problems with the likely ground conditions. Another bonus is he has won over 7 furlongs and with a cavalry charge like the Gold Cup, horses need to get every yard of the 6f at Ayr. My only concern, a bit like yourself, is how he copes with the change from France and course form at Ayr can be an advantage. Over the past 10 years the majority of winners have previously run at Ayr, often in the Gold or Silver Cups. Well dug out, I like someone who looks beyond the obvious, that’s where the value lies. Best of luck with him.
Just one moan now at Coral bookmakers, and I’ve had this more with them than any other bookies. I tried to place £20e/w on Colonel Mak at 33-1 on my online account, it was refused and I was offered £10e/w. I took the bet, grudgingly, and put another tenner e/w on at Betvictor who were the only other bookie offering 33s. I have had this several times with Coral, in particular placing in running golf bets. I like to look for someone with a bit of decent odds and several times with the bet has been offered at a lesser stake. I’m not talking about wads of money, I’m talking about suck as £20e/w 25 or 33-1, or maybe £10e/w at 50 or 66-1. All returns would be under a grand, and yet regularly the turn the bet down. I’ve raised this matter with them 3 times when the bet was refused, and got the same reply, ie
"Please be advised that our Trading Department have the right to refuse, restrict or alter any bets that they see fit, without giving a reason to the customer."
I’ve not had this problem with similar bets with BV, PP, BF, Sky, WH or Boylesports. I know the option is to bet elsewhere, and generally I do, it’s just annoying when checking prices on oddschecker during an event, particularly golf, Coral often offer better odds. After faffing about and bets being refused, I’ve lost odds by the time I’ve got my bet on elsewhere.
Sorry about that rant, I feel better getting that off my chest.
At the risk of sounding a right moan, anyone else find it a bit annoying that the racingpost online still don’t have the field for the Gold Cup on their site. It’s been on attheraces for weeks now.
Honestly, I’m definitely finished now……bahhh humbug…..I don’t beeeeelieve it.
As the big day looms, I’m getting a bit jittery about my pick, Barnet Fair. The one thing he very obviously doesn’t need is soft ground, and it doesn’t look like the sun is going to be splitting the trees in Ayr this week. The current state of the ground is good to soft, soft in places and more rain is forecast. Fortunately I hung off punting him watching what the market did, he’s out to 40s with BV, but as his run in the Portland on Saturday clearly showed (and we knew it before that anyway), he doesn’t cope with ground worse than good, and really needs it on the firm side. I would not be surprised if he was taken out by Richard Guest.
Summerinthecity has at least won on soft (back in 2010)and is still interesting, but with the going likely to be soft at best, I’m getting pretty keen on Colonel Mak. He will love the ground and the track, and having been 4th and 5th in the race the last two years I think the 33s with BV and Corals is a solid bet. He is also entered in the Silver Cup and if the going was better I don’t think he would make the cut for the Gold Cup, but with the conditions as they are I think there will be plenty withdrawn and he will be there. I doubt very much he will be anything like 33s on the day so I’ve taken him anti post. He won’t be withdrawn so even if he doesn’t make the cut my bet won’t be down.VTC I know you and Peruvian were keen on Summerinthecity, are you sticking with him or have you unearthed anything else for the race.
Best of luck anyway.Yes, roll up roll up …..for the annual donation to the bookies courtesy of Ayr Racecourse. It’s either having a punt on the Ayr Gold Cup or taking up the quest for the Holy Grail……I’m still swithering as to which one I’d have more luck at.
You know when you get that "ahhh….I’ve just spotted a horse that would absolutely skoot up in the Ayr Gold Cup" well I’m afraid that I’ve had that moment. I watched Barnet Fair win over 5f at Ascot in July, he looked impressive. I had a small punt on him in the Stewards Cup, he was well out the back and came through nicely to chase the leaders, but looked like he slightly ran out of fuel inside the final furlong. On refection, I think he came out too quickly (6 days)after his Ascot race. He was back out at the big York meeting (21st August) and ran a very promising race. He was very slow away and had to come from last through a big field. He made very good ground and was a strongly running on 5th, beaten less than 2 lengths, over 5 1/2 f, so I now have no worries about him making the 6f at Ayr. He’s obviously the type of horse that is going to be held up, and obviously in a race like the Gold Cup he would need some luck in running, but I’m quite excited about his chances.
He’s 33-1 with all bookies, I’m going to keep a close eye and if anyone pushes him out further, or if the 33s starts to go, I’m have a punt.
VTC, I’m in full agreement with you on Summerinthecity, he was unlucky not to win the Sky Dash at York, and he ran a very good race in the Great St Wilfred. He was very tardy at the start but made good ground to win the race on his side, which put him 5th overall. I definitely will be having a back up punt on him, he’s just the type of horse that David Nicholls will aim at the race, and he knows how to get a horse ready to win this. He is also 33s.
Having said all that, I think chasing the Holy Grail still looks a good alternative.
With the race being down to 14 runners (at the moment) hats off to SkyBet who are still going 1/4 odds first 4 (along with a couple of lesser known internet bookies). Admittedly they did start the day offering 5 places, but with the race cutting up they have still kept their noses ahead of all the mainstream bookmakers.
VTC, 3 serious picks there, I see that Ted Veale is being heavily bet and that’s always of note when its one of Tony Martin’s raiders, he’ll love the ground.
Hanoverian Baron was in the same boat as Opinion in the Old Newton Cup, he had no room and had to switch at the end and finished strongly, they finished within a nose of each other. Surprising you can still get 33-1, or 25-1 with SkyBet (honest I’m not on commission)which seems a decent bet. Congrats on taking the 40s and 70s.
As for Highland Castle, I’ve already commented to Triptych that I don’t understand why he is 33-1 (still 33-1 after the withdrawls…28-1 with SB) whilst Oriental Fox is generally 14 and 16-1, after they finished within a nose of each other at Ascot last time and both are still on the same mark. I know which one my money would be on.Not sure what to make of the slight drifting with Opinion, perhaps just the plunge on Tiger Cliff and Ted Veale. He is out to 7-1 with a couple of bookies, VC and SJ, from a high of 5s yesterday, although the 7s offered a short time ago with SkyBet and tote have been taken and back to 6s. I’ll still be surprised if he goes off as high as 6s.
It has cut up, but as you say it’s still a cracker.
Very soft ride on Tropical Beat yesterday on debut for David O’ Meara from John Gosden. Stayed on for pressure on first run for 330 days, and will come on for the run. Will definitely get in from 97.
25/1 across. Aye aye.
Cruel, cruel game this. Devastated.
That’s a shocker JJM, and at this late stage. It just knocks the stuffing out of you. Have you a plan B for whats left of the race?
