- This topic has 63 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
CAPTAIN RAMIUS 16S with Ladbrokes can win it again if the rain comes at this week at Ayr
I can’t see Colonel Mak getting in. By my reckoning he needs about 20 to come out.
I like the look of two former winners, Regal Parade and Our Jonathan, but they also need 7/8 to come out.
Of those guaranteed a run I like Shropshire but slight concern he’s creeped up the handicap too much. He’s also been on the go since early season whilst I do like to see one primed for Ayr. I’ve just about talked myself out of backing him there but 25/1 is decent value IMO.
I agree there has to be a mass exodus for him to get in, and all things being normal I doubt that he would. However if the ground is going to be as I expect it to be, heavy at best, I think there will be a lot of horses who are not going to waste a journey from down south and those that just won’t go in the ground. If he doesn’t make the cut, there’s nothing lost, as I know you will be aware that stakes will be returned (unless he’s withdrawn on health grounds). It’s a small risk, but you pays your money you takes your chance.
Big G – I agree with you on Colonel Mak. As you say if he gets in you are sitting on a nice price. If he misses the cut stakes are refunded.
For what it’s worth I have backed Shropshire at 25/1 and Gabriel’s Lad at 20/1 today. Both have decent form in these big field handicaps and I think they are overpriced.
I’ve also done Our Jonathan but sweating on him getting in.
There’s a fair wind forecast in Ayr next few days. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the ground drying up for Saturday.
Oasis, I like the look of Gabriel’s Lad, unlucky last time at ascot and a good win at Newmarket before that. Those were both on GF ground, but he has won on soft so ground shouldn’t be a problem.
I think you are pretty safe with Our Jonathan, he needs 7 to drop out and I think there will be more than that. A previous Gold Cup winner, so if he’s in the mood he has every chance.I hope your not willing that wind to blow
Paul Mulrennan was making encouraging noises about Mass Rally when interviewed at Musselburgh on Monday. This one won the Silver Cup last year and will revel in the going. Despite only 4 wins in 40 Mass Rally has not been disgraced in Group company and has progressed this year.
Rob
Going at Ayr is now soft. It’s still raining, but not as hard as I was expecting (or hoping for). Getting a bit worried now that its not going to get as heavy as I anticipated and therefore more horses will stay in. Colonel Mak is looking a bit dicey now.
Come on you rain Gods
Well that’s it……the rain Gods were too late (now raining heavily)
Oasis, you will be glad to hear that Our Jonathan made the cut, the last one in was Majestic Miles.
I get my money back, so it’s back to the drawing board, I’m inclined towards Gabriels Lad, as pointed out by Oasisdreamer, well done Oasis getting the 20-1, he’s best priced 12s at the moment with the new market, a couple of bookies still to mark up the race.
Plan B……I’m lumping on Highland Colori, he is in very good fettle at the moment, having won last time out, although it was only a four horse race.
Downside is that he’s running off the highest mark he has run off (104) although Balding has a good claimer on him with Oisin Murphy who takes 5lbs off his back.
Upside is that he will handle any ground, and was short headed in last year’s Silver Cup on heavy ground.
20-1 at Coral, that’s the best price on offer, and surprise surprise, after my previous comments about problems getting my full bet on with Coral, they took it without restricting it to a smaller stake. Maybe they got fed up of me complaining I couldn’t get my full bet on
Looking forward to this race…..but not as much as the jumps season which is all but upon us.
Good luck
Coral ……Fu**###!!!!****####
I couldn’t type what I’d want to say about them…..you won’t believe this.
As a back up to Highland Colori, and after praising up Coral for actually taking the full bet, I decided to have a back up with Our Jonathan.
Coral were offering 33-1, (only Boylesport match this) and I tried to place £15 ew. The usual "your bet is being considered by the traders" and after a minute I was offered….wait for it…£1 at 33-1 !!!! WTF. That’s the worst yet, but there’s more. I waited a couple of minutes and thought I would have another go at £10 ew. I swear I’m not making this up, the message I got was "Stake too high. The maximum stake on this bet is £0.15"
Are they just having a laugh, or is there something very wrong with Coral, they are the only bookmaker that I have found who have rejected bets at the size I regularly put on. Has anyone else had this problem?
Fearless Freddie would be turning in his grave – your record of events is simply pathetic from Corals point of view. On Saturday I will await the proclamations of "One of the great betting races, punters v bookies etc".
Back to the race – Lover Man is in and Tom Eaves is booked. Interesting.
Fearless Freddie would be turning in his grave – your record of events is simply pathetic from Corals point of view. On Saturday I will await the proclamations of "One of the great betting races, punters v bookies etc".
Back to the race – Lover Man is in and Tom Eaves is booked. Interesting.
Too true Peruvian, I don’t think he would have believed it. I had the good fortune to put a bet on with Freddie when he was on his pitch at Perth quite some years ago. Just so I could say that I had bet with him, even though it would have been a paltry figure by his standards. The man was a legend.
I agree with your assessment of Lover Man, he has shown some class in good races in France, will like the ground and Keith Dalgleish is making a name for himself as a smart trainer. I’m surprised you can still get 33-1 with VC Boylesports and Coral. VC are now going first five, its too tempting so although I’ve already got Highland Colori and Our Jonathan, I’m adding him to my betting stable, I hope that’s not the kiss of death for you
Hey Big G – Well a few more sneaked in at the bottom of the weights than I expected.
Nice to see Our Jonathan get in. Can he do a Funfair Wane and retain his crown? I think he can. The Portland run will have put him spot on, ground conditions will be ideal and he is nicely handicapped. I’m tempted to top up at 25/1 each way 5 places.
I’m happy to leave Gabriel’s Lad having nicked the 20s.
Baccarat catches my eye but there’s better value elsewhere with Mass Rally at 20/1. He has a big handicap in him but a mark of 105 may just stretch him.
It’s certainly a fantastic puzzle to try and solve!!
The normal silly prices on those at the head of the market and taking single digit prices in these affairs is normally grounds for being locked up in a padded room.
I’ll need 25/1 to consider a bet in the big daddy of the Cup races and I am going for Spinatrix at those very odds. She seems to like Ayr, has a pretty good win/place/run ratio for the type of racehorse she is and her overall record is one of improvement. This means she isn’t well handicapped by any means but she will be OK on soft, which is more than can be said for some others. Only caught late on and beaten a neck by Baccarat last time but is three times the price of that one.
Timeform seem really big on Gabriel’s Lad but I must be missing something as I can’t share their bullishness regarding him. Jack Dexter let me down big time earlier this year and they blamed the ground for that one, which will not be an excuse this time. He’s way short for me though.
It would be nice to see Hoof It recapture his form but I am always wary of translating group form to handicaps and prior to his Sprint Cup effort he had looked a horse on the wane. I have a feeling he may go off a good bit shorter than he should do.
Spinatrix each-way 25/1 hopefully with 5th place payout, although I doubt I’ll actually have a bet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well the price isn’t quite what I would have liked – 12-1 better but now best priced 9-1 for five places with 365 and it is Baccarat for me. I really thought his cosy win in the Gt St Wilfred from an in form course specialist (that I backed) in Spinatrix really looked like the run of a group horse running in handicaps.
Off 101 he probably needs to be able to run to c. 110 in such a competitive race but his run at Ripon caught my eye (and he could be better than this mark by 7 lbs) and I wonder if he can be better than the majority of these who are in the main handicappers.
The ground was G/S at Ripon not the good reported so a reading in the mid 7s upwards would probably be OK any softer with his good action he might be a lay. The closer to good it gets the more I’ll be lumping on.
Aimed at the race all season and getting in off 9-1 OK with PH riding unlikely to be a handicap the only problem for me is ground and whether his chance to win in the race is not obvious that they will extend him to place with next year in mind where he will probably be contesting group races.
Having lumped on Eton Rifles 2 years ago I couldn’t put anyone off his conqueror that day
I’m backing Duke Of Firenze. Nice draw and i’m not convinced he needs good ground. A bit of cut shouldn’t be a problem.
Hey Big G – Well a few more sneaked in at the bottom of the weights than I expected.
Nice to see Our Jonathan get in. Can he do a Funfair Wane and retain his crown? I think he can. The Portland run will have put him spot on, ground conditions will be ideal and he is nicely handicapped. I’m tempted to top up at 25/1 each way 5 places.
I’m happy to leave Gabriel’s Lad having nicked the 20s.
Baccarat catches my eye but there’s better value elsewhere with Mass Rally at 20/1. He has a big handicap in him but a mark of 105 may just stretch him.
It’s certainly a fantastic puzzle to try and solve!!
Hi Oasis I think Our Jonathon has a a real chance, I’ve backed Highland Colori, and after my latest run in with Coral, who wouldn’t take the bet on Our Jonathan as I mentioned earlier, I had no problem with getting on at Betvictor. I didn’t get the 33s that Coral was offering, but I got 28s, and another place (on 19th Sep). I hope you took the 25s if you topped up, I see he’s best priced 20s now. Still value at that I think.
I could add another Coral saga, about the Bronze Cup today, but I’m sure people would start to think I’ve been sniffing substances or just making it up……I’ve written to Coral.
Best of luck
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.