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Shock report because it has come from someone who is the least academic "Professor" since professor Quincy Adams Wagstaff.
I think he was promoted from tea boy at the Daily Mash, because he knew how to use a typewriter.
Yes you are of course right Red Rum, it was indeed Richard Johnson, and indebted to him I am. I replied during a busy days racing, and in fact I had just had a bet on Ruby riding Aerial (jumped ship from Dave’s Dream to Aerial when he drifted out to 6-1) and that was what was very much in my mind….it was indeed Ruby that gave my ticker an acute case of tachycardia, but in the race immediately following Marufo’s win.
Maybe I’m just not used to having two winners on the bounce.
That’s too much information for me there Carry On Katie. You’ll have me going back to my Bagpuss and Fingermouse days in a minute……and you don’t want to do that
Thanks Young Fella, your horse ran a good race, and I thought Ruby was taking things so carefully at his fences that he was never going to get there on mine. Even after the last it was touch and go, again I had doubts he would get there. Hats off to Ruby for getting him in the last stride….not so good for my ticker though
I’m very keen on Marufo in this one. He had a long lay off, nearly a year and a half, and has had two runs to get him right. His last run at Sandown, 3rd to Midnight Appeal was a decent run and off 10st 4lbs I think he is a cracking bet. I grabbed him at 6-1 but 11-2 is still available.
Mark TT wrote….
I know where you’re coming from, but Papillon had won a 3 mile chase as a 6 year old before finishing second in the Irish National – much better form than Seabass, who has yet to win at that distance.
That’s what i mean about the price – it makes little sense to shorten that much after winning a race everyone thought it could win over a distance it’s proven at.I think it’s yet another example of the bookies robbing people blind and ‘ creating ‘ gambles that aren’t happening. I doubt there’s that much money on the horse at this stage and his price is a joke.
One placed run over 3 miles and he’s one of the Grand National favourites – it’s ridiculous.I absolutely agree with you on the odds plunge Mark. The race showed he was well in himself, but it should not have moved the market the way it did. He was hardly hiding under a bushel having won his last 6 races, so it told little more than we knew. It maybe emphasised his battling qualities to get back up just before the post, that impressed me a lot, but I think you are right that the bookies used it a bit.
Maybe it might just come back to haunt them, now that would be a nice change
Mark TT wrote …..
There’s nothing ‘ new ‘ in that run though. It was over an inadequate trip
Not my idea of a National bet. Yet to win over 3 miles outside of points.
You are absolutely right in that it was over an inadequate trip. However he did run a good race (good enough to win it) and finished like a train, very much looking like a horse that would get much further. Again I accept that his 3m races have been over points, but he has won over 2m5f at Fairyhouse and 2m 6f at Punchestown, and I think there is enough there for Ted Walsh to think this is a National type horse.
He is certainly progressing at a huge rate, and his weight would have been a good lot higher than the 10st 12lbs after another win.
Walsh ran him in the Leopardstown H’cap Chase ( which he won very well over 2m5f) 3 days before the weights were set for the National. I think he did this to make sure he was in the weights.Incidently, Ted Walsh ran Papillon over 2m at Fairyhoue in January before running him over 2m 5f and 2m 4f at Leopardstown in March…..directly before sending him to Aintree where he won the National.
I’m not saying that Seabass is another Papillon, but I certainly would not be put off by him running in a 2m at Naas.
If Walsh thinks this is a National horse, and nothing has gotten past him in his last 7 races, I don’t think I need to dig any deeper……he has a realistic chance, that’s all I’m saying.
I know what you mean Mark, on the face of it winning a 2 miler doesn’t point to a national type. Only think i would say in his favour is that he has run 4 times over 3m, winning twice and 3rd once.
Of the previous 6 races he has run before this one, he won them all, and none of those were below 2m4f.
I thought at the end of the race that his chance had gone, but he rallied so well to get up I admit I was impressed. He obviously has a will about him, stamina enough to win over 3m, but it seems also enough speed to win over 2m.
If Ted Walsh, who knows a thing or two about National types, keeps him in the race (nice weight of 10st 12lbs) I admit I would be a bit interested in him.
He has been cut to 16s with some bookies as you say (in fact 14s with a couple) but plenty of 20-1 is still available.
Worth a punt?
Well I’m not quite sure what race you were watching Zip. I thought she traveled well throughout, the jockey pressed the button (maybe a tad too early…. but perhaps not) and was basically beaten by, according to people who know a lot more about horses than I do, a very well handicapped Irish horse that was gambled as if he were.
After 4M 1f, she gets beaten in the last 50 yards….with the next nearest horse 11 lengths back. If that makes her soft, there must have been a lot of softies behind her too. I think we have to hand credit to Portrait King and Denis O’Regan for running a cracking race and timing it just right.
I think the summery in the RP is fair…..
Held up in rear, smooth headway and in touch before 20th, led on bit 2 out, soon ridden, 2 lengths up last, edged left run-in, headed and no extra last 50yds
She didn’t seem "soft in a finish" when she won the North Yorkshire Grand National over 3m 6f in January…..
Held up in rear, headway 15th, chased leaders 18th, went 2nd approaching 3 out, led 2 out, pushed out (op 10-1)
It’s all about opinions, I respect yours, I just don’t agree with it.
Well blow me over !!!!
Gingertipster, In my last post to you, I joined you in both of us crying into our glass. However……I’ve just logged into my email, to find an email from Paddy Power telling me I’m getting my money back
It seems that PP had an offer that if your horse was second in the eider, you got your stake back.
I know it might feel a bit like rubbing salt in your wounds….sorry about that….but I just had to tell someone. It was almost better than getting a winner.
Maybe I can try for that Cheltenham satchel again.
If it makes you feel any better Gingertipster, the only other bet I had yesterday was Posh Bird in the Eider. I really fancied her,and after the last fence I still thought she was going to win, only to be collared in the last 50yards.
That’s racing for you. Still waiting to fill my Cheltenham satchel….. It’s not looking too good at the moment
I certainly know how you feel Gingertipster….I get days like that too.
Hector’s Choice ran a good race, and looked to be the most likely winner at one point, until thumping the 3rd last. Certainly stopped his momentum but not sure it would have made a difference with the result.
A case of close….but no cigar.
Peter H wrote….
Really happy with Black Apalachi’s run today. Stayed on very impressively from the rear, showing that the further they go the better he gets. Still has plenty of spirit despite his age and regardless of what the trainer may think; 11-3 is a very nice weight for a horse who after today’s performance should be carrying a lot more. Got 50’s on him. He’s now down to 33’s, so i’m happy with that.
I’d love to see him do well in it Peter, I had him in 2009 when I felt hard done by when he unseated, traveling really well, and 2010 when I thought with a couple to go he would win it.
I watched the re-run of the Fairyhouse race on ATT, and he stayed on well against PDB, at level weights. He will be giving him 11lbs in the National and that takes a bit of turning around on form, although I accept this was his first race back after an absence of nearly 2 years. Certainly an excellent prep race for the National and we know he takes to Aintree very well. Although PDB did nothing wrong winning the John Smith’s there last year.
My main concern is his age, I think Black Apalachi is a cracking National horse, and I think he’s a little unlucky he hasn’t won it, but I have reservations about him doing it at 13. I’m not saying he won’t, he looked well in his prep race, but you have to go back to 1923 to find the last winner of the race at 13years old (Sergeant Murphy)
I’m going give him a miss this year, but I do hope for your sake that I am wrong. Best of luck
Incidentally, there is still plenty of 50-1 about.
Most of the way round the last circuit, I thought that my money looked good on Posh Bird, he was traveling so well just behind the front runners.
I kind of wish Brian Hughes had waited a little longer with him rather than sending him home from the second last. It might have made little difference, but it might not have let Portrait King have the chance of coming back at him.
I’m not having a go at him (Hughes), if he had come clear after going on 2 out, I would have been saying he rode the perfect race, but I think he maybe burned the juice up just a little too early. Hats off to the winner and Denis O’Regan who is riding out of his skin at the moment.
Eclipse First…..well done my friend, you’re assessment was spot on. I didn’t see Nacarat coming back to the form he had shown a year ago….but he did that and more. I hold my hands up when I get it wrong.
Grey Dolphin wrote…
My ew bet Consigliere just couldn’t go the pace on that ground but plugged on for 4th.
I was with you in hoping Consigliere would do us both a turn, but I view his running slightly differently. It’s not that he couldn’t go the pace, it’s more that his jumping was sloppy after the first few fences, and before the halfway mark, it was as bad as I’ve seen him in that he was losing ground at fences around that time of the race. He fell away tamely and I stopped looking for him, I was so sure he was out of it and I half expected he may get pulled up. I was astonished at the end to see him running into 4th place.
Nacarat back to his best, I don’t think it would have made any difference to the result (the winner) but if he hadn’t had a really poor patch, which he is not normally guilty of, he would have been a good deal closer.
I think the one thing to take from his run, other than he will need to sort out the ropey jumping, is that he does get 3m on good ground. To be running on at the end, after losing his place so badly, means I will be giving him another chance.
He ran well in the Byrne Group Plate at the festival last year, 4th behind 3 horses all of whom he was giving 1st 4lbs to. Whatever he runs in this year, he might be worth an e/w as he will be a good price (presently over 25-1 in all 4 he’s entered in).
So do we give him another chance?Rich 1985 wrote…..
True he handled it OK that day and ran well but apart from that all his form, including most recently, has been on soft. He may be tapped for toe against some of these I feel.
Re. Nacarat – I for one won’t be writing him off just yet, was only April last year when he won last and has faced some stiff opposition since – granted he should’ve been more competitive in that Listed Chase at Aintree in December but that was on heavy ground. A return to Kempton on better ground may rejuvenate him.
Yep I take your point Rich, if it was softer I would be easier making a case for him. I feel in his last couple of races he has shown improvement, maybe it’s just me but I think he looks a better horse this year. If I’m right, he is well in on 11st 1lb. I know it’s all relative to who is running, but you have to go back some time for him carrying that kind of weight.
If I’m putting 2 and 2 together, and getting 5, I will happily hold my hands up after the race if he starts running on the spot before the last. But, you pays your money etc etc.
The Young Fella wrote….
This race gets so brutal at the finish, which is quite unique for Kempton. Remember Simon walking home, Razor Royale and Nacarat out on their feet and slow motion finishes of years past. It takes a strong stayer to win The Racing Post Chase. With this in mind, I still find it hard to warm to Consigliere since he has dogged it plenty of times in a battle.
Again, I take your point, he has disapointed in the past, but as I said to Rich, I think he has shown a bit more grit of late and is a better horse.
I seem to be singing this horse’s praises here…..I wish to point out before anyone insinuates otherwise, I have never had a relationship with this horse, I have never bought him polo mints, and we have never even held hooves……and the photographs are fake !!!
Rich 1985 said…….
I can’t see Consigliere winning to be honest, not good enough IMO. Needs really soft ground in my view and that definitely won’t be the case tomorrow. POS, Nacarat and MLB to fight it out, with POS just coming out on top.
I’m not disputing he likes it soft, but he ran a cracking race on genuine good ground last year at the festival, giving oodles of weight to everything in the race bar Tatenen, before he weakened at the last, finishing 4th….giving 1st 4lbs to each of the three horse that finished in front of him. I think he will handle the ground ok.
