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. Not likely to be such a draining event as last year when only a couple finished as good ground is forecast. Of the runners, I like CAPTAIN AMERICO as has good course form and finished a decent 4th to HBS a few starts ago, who is very useful. Has been in good form this season, and promises to stay the extreme distance. Portrait King looks to be an interesting Irish challenger and merits a lot of respect judged from his Punchestown victory LTO.
Even off top weight I’d have to fancy Arbor Supreme. Looks like one who’s got a big race in him.
Having checked out the trends I am left with:
Posh Bird and Mister Marker with the latter being the main bet
Manner of Eyre Squres’s four mile win in the Border National at Kelso means can see him outstaying his rivals here.
Abor Supreme, if he were to come back to his best (aimed at 2 Grand Nationals by Willie Mullins…odds on the day 16-1 and 20-1) even carrying 11st12 would have a live chance, but his runnings of late do not suggest he is at his best….not for me.
Mister marker beat Posh Bird last time out over 3m1f at Ayr. Not a lot in it at the end (1/2 length) and MM is 2lbs worse off now. He was also well beaten by Eyre Square in the Borders National in the race before, and is 5lbs worse off with Eyre Square. Too much against him….not for me.
Eyre Square, as mentioned, won the Borders national over 4m, so no problem with the trip here. He had Captain Americo well beaten (16 lengths) and although CA is 6lb better with him, and CA did run a good race behind Bold Ranson at Haydock last time, I don’t think the 6lb’s will turn it around for him….Eyre Square a strong contender.
Drybrook Bedouin won the Deven marathon over 4m at Exeter in Dec, but ran an absolute stinker next time out at Wincanton and was tailed off……definitely not for me.
Victory Gunner is a horse I’ve always liked, and he can throw in some very good performances (I like him because I’ve made a few quid from him). Even so, I’m not having him win this at 14 against a competitive field
So my money is going the way of Posh Bird. She won the North Yorkshire Grand National over 3m6f really well in Jan, and followed up with a good looking performance, running on very well, when beaten 1/2 a length behind Mister Marker over 3m1f at Ayr. 9-1 being offered and I think that looks decent value.
I like Rich’s name more…..I vote they change it
I guess if you were Northern or Lancastrian then something like Betfred would be called Betters!
Not sure about Arbor Supreme, has been campaigned for the GN in recent years and has jumping issues to sort out, only ray of hope was his good second behind TMC in the Bobbyjo last year. Too many negatives for me with recent form not too encouraging and a hefty weight to carry.
Morgan Be only just prevailed LTO but has good course form, should be in the reckoning.
I have to agree with BigG, POSH BIRD looks the one here. She’s had two races at 3m 4f+ resulting in a second and a first. She looked as if 4 miles would do here no harm at at all when winning at Catterick, and was staying on nicely at Ayr last time.
Captain Americo for the forecast as James Ewart has had an eye on this race for a while. He was on my seasonal List To Follow and this sort of contest should be just up his street, though he has been a tad frustrating, normally getting outpaced three or four out then staying on again.
Rob
I’ll take a chance on
Negus De Beaumont
. He is featherweighted with his rider’s claim and coming back to form at long last too.
This is Captain Americo’s cue to win now I have finally stopped picking him!
Eyre Square
is better off with Mister Marker for his Borders National success, where Captain Americo was a further dozen lengths back in third. Mister Marker would prefer easier conditions, while Eyre Square is arguably a better horse under these conditions.
This consistent sort stays the trip, has a good course record and, in a race where stamina is a prime attribute, the assistance of the stylish James Reveley will be a huge asset. He can get any horse into a rhythm and his quiet style will ensure every potential drop of energy will be conserved.
Gamble landed, that 5/1 earlier in the week sure looks big now! Capt AMERICO gave me a good run for my money but didn’t quite have enough class at the end.
Suspect all of Ireland was on that. Thought Posh Bird might have just caught Denis napping for a moment but enough left in the tank.
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