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I think something rated in the 90s will have the best chance and a horse trained by Dandy Nicholls as he is due a big sprint win. Rodrigo De Torres fits the bill for me after an encouraging run at Ripon last time.

A brave shout Rich, considering his record in the race last year and the Silver Cup the year before (25 of 26 and 23 of 24 respectively) but there’s no doubting he goes into it in much finer fettle this year, after a fine win in the Scottish Stewards Cup and a good race at Ripon. My main worry would be that last years race was on heavy and the silver cup the year before was on soft. I’m not sure he wants the type of ground he’s likely to encounter.

Like my fancy, Colonal Mak (48th in racecard), he needs a few to come out (51st), but with the conditions I think there will be enough withdrawn to get both horses in, probably even Summerinthecity (56th) for VTC and Peruvian, if they still fancy him.
Good luck

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Interesting call Peruvian, especially Lover Man. I knew nothing of this horse and there is no doubt he has shown very good form in decent races. He also has good form on very soft ground in France so no problems with the likely ground conditions. Another bonus is he has won over 7 furlongs and with a cavalry charge like the Gold Cup, horses need to get every yard of the 6f at Ayr. My only concern, a bit like yourself, is how he copes with the change from France and course form at Ayr can be an advantage. Over the past 10 years the majority of winners have previously run at Ayr, often in the Gold or Silver Cups. Well dug out, I like someone who looks beyond the obvious, that’s where the value lies. Best of luck with him.

Just one moan now at Coral bookmakers, and I’ve had this more with them than any other bookies. I tried to place £20e/w on Colonel Mak at 33-1 on my online account, it was refused and I was offered £10e/w. I took the bet, grudgingly, and put another tenner e/w on at Betvictor who were the only other bookie offering 33s. I have had this several times with Coral, in particular placing in running golf bets. I like to look for someone with a bit of decent odds and several times with the bet has been offered at a lesser stake. I’m not talking about wads of money, I’m talking about suck as £20e/w 25 or 33-1, or maybe £10e/w at 50 or 66-1. All returns would be under a grand, and yet regularly the turn the bet down. I’ve raised this matter with them 3 times when the bet was refused, and got the same reply, ie

"Please be advised that our Trading Department have the right to refuse, restrict or alter any bets that they see fit, without giving a reason to the customer."

I’ve not had this problem with similar bets with BV, PP, BF, Sky, WH or Boylesports. I know the option is to bet elsewhere, and generally I do, it’s just annoying when checking prices on oddschecker during an event, particularly golf, Coral often offer better odds. After faffing about and bets being refused, I’ve lost odds by the time I’ve got my bet on elsewhere.

Sorry about that rant, I feel better getting that off my chest.

At the risk of sounding a right moan, anyone else find it a bit annoying that the racingpost online still don’t have the field for the Gold Cup on their site. It’s been on attheraces for weeks now.

Honestly, I’m definitely finished now……bahhh humbug…..I don’t beeeeelieve it.

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As the big day looms, I’m getting a bit jittery about my pick, Barnet Fair. The one thing he very obviously doesn’t need is soft ground, and it doesn’t look like the sun is going to be splitting the trees in Ayr this week. The current state of the ground is good to soft, soft in places and more rain is forecast. Fortunately I hung off punting him watching what the market did, he’s out to 40s with BV, but as his run in the Portland on Saturday clearly showed (and we knew it before that anyway), he doesn’t cope with ground worse than good, and really needs it on the firm side. I would not be surprised if he was taken out by Richard Guest.
Summerinthecity has at least won on soft (back in 2010)and is still interesting, but with the going likely to be soft at best, I’m getting pretty keen on Colonel Mak. He will love the ground and the track, and having been 4th and 5th in the race the last two years I think the 33s with BV and Corals is a solid bet. He is also entered in the Silver Cup and if the going was better I don’t think he would make the cut for the Gold Cup, but with the conditions as they are I think there will be plenty withdrawn and he will be there. I doubt very much he will be anything like 33s on the day so I’ve taken him anti post. He won’t be withdrawn so even if he doesn’t make the cut my bet won’t be down.

VTC I know you and Peruvian were keen on Summerinthecity, are you sticking with him or have you unearthed anything else for the race.
Best of luck anyway.

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Yes, roll up roll up …..for the annual donation to the bookies courtesy of Ayr Racecourse. It’s either having a punt on the Ayr Gold Cup or taking up the quest for the Holy Grail……I’m still swithering as to which one I’d have more luck at.

You know when you get that "ahhh….I’ve just spotted a horse that would absolutely skoot up in the Ayr Gold Cup" well I’m afraid that I’ve had that moment. I watched Barnet Fair win over 5f at Ascot in July, he looked impressive. I had a small punt on him in the Stewards Cup, he was well out the back and came through nicely to chase the leaders, but looked like he slightly ran out of fuel inside the final furlong. On refection, I think he came out too quickly (6 days)after his Ascot race. He was back out at the big York meeting (21st August) and ran a very promising race. He was very slow away and had to come from last through a big field. He made very good ground and was a strongly running on 5th, beaten less than 2 lengths, over 5 1/2 f, so I now have no worries about him making the 6f at Ayr. He’s obviously the type of horse that is going to be held up, and obviously in a race like the Gold Cup he would need some luck in running, but I’m quite excited about his chances.

He’s 33-1 with all bookies, I’m going to keep a close eye and if anyone pushes him out further, or if the 33s starts to go, I’m have a punt.

VTC, I’m in full agreement with you on Summerinthecity, he was unlucky not to win the Sky Dash at York, and he ran a very good race in the Great St Wilfred. He was very tardy at the start but made good ground to win the race on his side, which put him 5th overall. I definitely will be having a back up punt on him, he’s just the type of horse that David Nicholls will aim at the race, and he knows how to get a horse ready to win this. He is also 33s.

Having said all that, I think chasing the Holy Grail still looks a good alternative.

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With the race being down to 14 runners (at the moment) hats off to SkyBet who are still going 1/4 odds first 4 (along with a couple of lesser known internet bookies). Admittedly they did start the day offering 5 places, but with the race cutting up they have still kept their noses ahead of all the mainstream bookmakers.

VTC, 3 serious picks there, I see that Ted Veale is being heavily bet and that’s always of note when its one of Tony Martin’s raiders, he’ll love the ground.
Hanoverian Baron was in the same boat as Opinion in the Old Newton Cup, he had no room and had to switch at the end and finished strongly, they finished within a nose of each other. Surprising you can still get 33-1, or 25-1 with SkyBet (honest I’m not on commission)which seems a decent bet. Congrats on taking the 40s and 70s.
As for Highland Castle, I’ve already commented to Triptych that I don’t understand why he is 33-1 (still 33-1 after the withdrawls…28-1 with SB) whilst Oriental Fox is generally 14 and 16-1, after they finished within a nose of each other at Ascot last time and both are still on the same mark. I know which one my money would be on.

Not sure what to make of the slight drifting with Opinion, perhaps just the plunge on Tiger Cliff and Ted Veale. He is out to 7-1 with a couple of bookies, VC and SJ, from a high of 5s yesterday, although the 7s offered a short time ago with SkyBet and tote have been taken and back to 6s. I’ll still be surprised if he goes off as high as 6s.

It has cut up, but as you say it’s still a cracker.

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Very soft ride on Tropical Beat yesterday on debut for David O’ Meara from John Gosden. Stayed on for pressure on first run for 330 days, and will come on for the run. Will definitely get in from 97.

25/1 across. Aye aye.

Cruel, cruel game this. Devastated.

That’s a shocker JJM, and at this late stage. It just knocks the stuffing out of you. Have you a plan B for whats left of the race?

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I’m going with 3 against the field tomorrow Opinion, Oriental Fox and Highland Castle (each way at 33/1). It looks a very open race but would love to see Opinion win it.

Hi Triptych

I, my good lady, and my bank manager all have our fingers crossed that your wish comes true. I’ve been banging my drum (and emptying my wallet) about Opinion for the past couple of weeks on this thread. There’s been all sorts of speculation about the draw, which I’m not worried about, and I see that tonight (actually late last night as I’m now burning the midnight oil at 1.30am) Gdc1 kindly let us know that it was bucketing down in North Yorkshire. Again I’m not worried for Opinion as he has won twice on soft ground.

I suppose the one unknown is that he hasn’t run beyond 12f, but the way he won in the Duke of Edinburgh at ascot, and particularly when strongly running on in the Old Newton Cup after having his run blocked and having to switch 1f from home, suggests he will manage the further couple of furlongs well.

I see that a couple of bookies have pushed him out to 6-1 late last night, there’s value in that, I would expect that will disappear by morning.

I wouldn’t disagree that both Oriental Fox and Highland Castle have a good shout. After their last race, with nothing between them, I can’t work out why one is as low as 14-1 whilst the other is 33-1 and both racing off the same mark.

Best of luck

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No Heretic gets in and has a brilliant draw. Topped up my bet yesterday so chuffed about that. Tropical Beat not such a good draw, though.

Hi Moehat, I wouldn’t be too worried about the draw for Tropical beat, I think that too much is made of it’s importance in the Ebor.
Admittedly if you simply look at the winners over the past 10 years, with six winners drawn in the middle it suggests that’s the place to be, but the overall stats show it’s not that simple.

Over the last 10 years, of horses drawn in single figures, 19 were placed, with one winner and six finishing second.
Of those drawn between 10 and 17, eleven were placed with six winning and one being second.
Of those drawn 18 and above, seven finished in the first four, with two winners and two second.

It could be argued that those drawn in single figures are the place to be. Although those drawn 10-17 had six winners and one second, those in single figures had one winner and six seconds, the difference between the winner and second in those cases could simply be down to the better horse getting its head in front. Those drawn in single figure also have the highest percentage of horses placed. Exactly half of all the horses placed (18) were drawn in single figures as opposed to those drawn 10-17 who have less than a third placed (11).
Those drawn 18+ account for less than 20% of horses in the first four.

With the largest percentage of placed horses coming from single figure stalls, I wouldn’t worry about Tropical Beat being drawn 6. If he’s good enough, he can win from there.

I’ve already nailed my colours to the mast with Opinion, who is drawn 5. I’m not concerned about him coming from there, I believe he is good enough to win whichever stall he comes from.

Best of luck for both your fancies.

PS Before some eagle eyed mathematician points out that my figures account for 36 horses, when there should be 40 placed over the past ten years, I have not take into account the 2008 running, which took place at Newbury and is therefore irrelevant in relation to the draw.

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Agreed Martin, the result of the game was so disappointing. I don’t think Celtic played bad at all, in fact I thought they were the better team. The big difference was Shakhter put the ball in the net twice, and Celtic squandered many decent chances. That being said, I really don’t think this game is lost yet, I think Shakhter will find it very intimidating at Parkhead and I can’t see Celtic not scoring a couple of times against them, I think keeping a clean sheet is going to be the main concern. I’m an Accies man so obviously I’m happy at the moment, if they could finish the league today….we’d be champions and promoted…..hooorraaaaah. Only another 34 games to go

Anyway, back to the Ebor. I put up Opinion when he was still 8-1 (having taken 10s) and suggested he was the type that could end up 7-2 on the day. I banged on about him again when he was 7s and suggested that was still value. He’s now best priced 5-1. There has been serious money on this horse, which I like to see from Stoute’s yard as I take it as a very serious pointer.

Whether the 5-1 is still value in a competitive 22 runner handicap is open to debate, but I’m inclined to say yes. Maybe I should put on a double…..Opinion to win the Ebor and Celtic to qualify for the group stages , they are best priced 6/5 with Hills. I don’t think that’s such a bad bet.

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I was glad to read yesterday that Opinion had done his last piece of work before the Ebor and was impressive.

All appears to be going well at this stage I’m glad to see his price is shortening, I have noticed in the past that when the money is down for a Stoute horse, it is a good indication. I don’t know whether it’s been stable or owner money, but if expectation is high they certainly get bet.

He is best priced 7-1 now, and as I said in my previous post, when he was best priced 8-1, "I can see him being the kind of gamble that ends up 7-2". I’m obviously being a bit smug at grabbing the 10s but I still think he is value at 7-1.

All he has to do now is win, it’s that easy……he says typing with burnt fingers from previous would be easy winners.

Best of luck whatever nag you settle on.

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I suppose, if I’m to put my tuppence worth in, I watch racing and enjoy it very much, but it really is the betting aspect which makes me pour over races for hours on end if I’m honest.

Don’t get me wrong, the Cheltenham Festival gives me palpitations even without a penny on, but it just makes it perfect when you have the expectation that your horse (and it is your horse when you’ve got money on it) may just get his (or her) nose in front and you have been a right clever clogs beating the bookie.

As for the Shergar Cup, I’ve already nailed my colours to the mast that I’m a jumps man, and it takes particular flat races to get my interest, so the bottom line is the Shergar Cup just doesn’t do it for me. I have so little interest in the meeting as a betting prospect that I simply don’t watch it. It’s more like a family fun day with your uncle racing against your neighbour in the sack race. They are all very amenable at the end, and it’s jolly good fun, but "it’s racing, but not as we know it Jim".

That being said, it’s one day in the year so I don’t have any problem with it, whether people enjoy it for the right or wrong reason (if a day out at the fair with candyfloss, roundabout rides and Pimm’s number whatever is wrong)so I am more than happy for it to carry on, but I’m afraid I will be posted absent without leave.

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Good thread. If the ground remains Good or better I will back Summerinthecity. Good draw, top connections, and looked more than a little unlucky LTO against the progressive Tropics.

Hi PC, I agree with you, he was a little unlucky last time, the handicapper has noticed this too and has stuck on 5lbs for his efforts.
If you get the ground you want then I agree Summerinthecity is well drawn, I dont know if we have any punters from Ripon area that can give us a heads up here, but the forecast is for heavy rain tonight, in fact a yellow weather warning has been issued in north Yorkshire. If the heavens do open, then I think the drawn will favour those drawn low.

Good luck either way.

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Ok so we know the draw now, and Borderlescott is drawn 2. Now it’s not just a straightforward high or low is better at Ripon. The stats suggest that when the going is good or better ground, the advantage lies with the higher drawn horses. However, when the ground is soft, that advantage is reversed.
http://www.drawbias.com/courses/Ripon/Ripon6.html
The present going is good, but the Ripon forecast is for heavy rain tonight and light rain from 11am onwards on Saturday. Hopefully it wasn’t a forecast by Michael Fish (nothing to see here, no hurricanes forecast…..move along please)so there is a likelyhood the ground will be on the soft side. Hopefully then, he is drawn well.

The 33s has gone, but still some 25s about which I think looks decent value.

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Prescott doesn’t really win these big races anymore so will opt for something like Stoute’s Opinion or Haggas’s Stencive or Guarantee. Caravan Rolls On has a big prize in him too.

I’m with you Rich on Opinion’s chances. I know it’s not really an inspired pick, him being favourite, but I think he must have a terrific chance.

He won well at Ascot over 12f, and looked like he was in need of a bit further. He then ran a promising race in the Old Newton Cup, (finished 6th) where even if he hadn’t won, he would undoubtedly have finished a lot closer had he not had his run stopped, and after having to switch he ran on well again. It might be a blessing for this race that he didn’t win as he would be running with a penalty.

I kind of swithered when he was 12-1 in case he was switched to another race, but with no sign of him being entered elsewhere I took the 10s. He’s now best priced 8s, but I can see him being the kind of gamble that ends up 7-2, so even at 8s I think that’s a fair punt.

If I was looking for something a bit more speculative, again I agree with you Rich that Willie Haggas could provide the answer, but of his entries I would side with Harris Tweed who at 16-1 has to be a very solid e/w chance. His last run where he won over 14f at Goodwood was quite impressive, winning by a good margin and looking like there was a lot more in the tank. He’s got a 4lb penalty for that, but he won with a lot in hand so I don’t think the 4lb is unreasonable and shouldn’t stop him.

I’m a jumps man at heart, but I do like these quality longer flat races (and the occasional sprint cavalry charge)and the Ebor fits the bill.

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I’m inclined to have an e/w punt on Olympic Glory.
G

Hard luck with that one, almost an inspired selection there.

Moonlight Cloud must have given her backers palpitations and was running on fumes at the end. Dawn Approach was as flat as a witches bosom and I think he ran way below his best today, proving that no matter how tough they seem, the well dries up if you dip into it every time a race comes along. Elusive Kate ran gamely enough but is not quite at the very top, a remark that also applies to Declaration Of War. Intello was pushed along fairly early on and this vaunted "Electric turn of foot" that he is supposed to possess was not in evidence in any shape or form today. He looks like a horse who needs another two furlongs and slower horses to flatter his finishing kick. I said beforehand that I doubted what he had beaten and considered him a talking horse, Joni Bake, you owe me a pint LOL

Hannon outgunned Bolger in the training stakes today with his stable star sitting with his feet up watching his old sparring partner toiling, while quietly muttering "Who’s the daddy now Dawnie"

Thanks Steve
I have to admit I thought he was going to get there at the death, but none the less I still came out well on top so I can’t grumble.
The reservations you had about Intello were justified and Nathan had it pegged with Dawn Approach having had too hard a run up to this.
This could be a good weekend for me as I also had a pre tournament bet on Henrick Stenson for the PGA at 22-1. He’s best priced 100/30 now, and two off the lead for the last round…..fingers crossed.

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Oddscheker frequently down over the past few days, the following message coming up:

oddschecker.com, confrontaquote.it and oddsscanner websites are currently unavailable while we carry out scheduled maintenance work.

We apologise for any inconvenience caused and will endeavour to resume normal service as soon as possible.

Is it just me getting this message or are others having the same problem?

I have also noticed that oddschecker has been having a few glitches of late. I always keep it on when I’m watching the golf, and on Thursday I was running it during the first round of the PGA and noticed the prices of several bookmakers sites were well off what odds they actually were offering. Before someone tells me there is always a time lag from bookmaker to oddschecker, I am aware of this, but I am talking about periods up to 30 minutes where Mickelson was 22-1 when in actual fact he had dropped to between 14 and 16-1. You’ll get him at any price you like now…..he’s making a complete a**e of it.

This is a great pity as I have used their site for a very long time, in fact I’m never off it.I hope they get it sorted out.

As for the race tomorrow, I don’t see this as a two horse race between Dawn Approach and Intello, Moonlight Cloud has got just as big a shout. That being said, there are reasons already mentioned as to why the principles might not be primed for this, (DA returning from very hard race and Intello might want a bit further now) At the skinny prices offered I’m inclined to have an e/w punt on Olympic Glory. If you take away his last race he would most certainly be running with odds in single figures, not the 20-1 which is currently on offer. He went off 3-1 favourite for a £255,000 race at Longchamp last time. Although he was well down the field in 11th, he did not have a particularly good passage and was brought wide on the final bend which is not ideal at Longchamp. He did not pick up quickly enough, but was running on at the finish. Unbeaten as a 2yr old, except when a running on beaten 2nd to Dawn Approach, and a good winner on the Greenham on his return this year, surely gives him a serious chance of being involved in the finish. I don’t think Richard Hannon would send him over without thinking he had a chance.

You might get better odds on the paris mutual, but I think the 20-1 could well disappear, so I’m having some of that.

Good luck
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Oh well

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