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One of my favourite sprints of the year and also one of my luckiest
My 2 against the field are:
Louis the Pious who has run close in many good top sprints and should go well and I’ve snaffled some EW 20s first 5 places.
My back up sees Ryan Moore take to the saddle for Charlie Hills a combination that we do not see often
, 16s EW seems fair to me!Comments and selections? Be lucky
I agree with you GDC, along with the Ayr Gold Cup this is one of my fav’s too, even though it’s always wide open and tough to crack.
From a form point of view, it’s hard to get away from Tropics chances. His form is rock solid, in particular after his win last time out in the Sky Dash at York carrying top weight, that was mightily impressive. However I’m not for having an outright favourite in a race where only one outright fav, and two joint fav’s, have won since 1986.
I’ve had a stab at Barnet Fair who looks like the type of improver who will like this type of race. He won a big handicap at the Ascot meeting last year, and again last week. Both were 18 runner fields so this race should suit, and the way he won last time, after being slightly impeded at the start, and coming from last to first suggested he is an improving type. Admittedly he is running off his highest rating and only 8 days after his win, but he did win a touch cosily and I think that the 33-1, which is still available at a couple of bookies (16s to 25s elsewhere) is a very realistic e/w.
As this is the type of race that throws up good priced winners and placed horses, I’m kind of loath to ignore Secret Witness, who has bags of ability, but at times looks completely disinterested, as he did last time at York where he started off at the rear of the field, and never looked like getting involved. It could be sentiment as I had a good place off him at 50-1 a couple of years ago and a 16-1 win at York last year, so I’m having a couple of quid on the huffy bugger just in case he bolts in (40-1 available with SkyBet)
There’s no doubt you could make a good case for at least half the field and luck in running will be needed with both the two I mentioned, as they are both come from behind sorts.
Good luck whatever you plump for.
If I include Hawkeythenoo
, or Secret Witness
in any more of these races, I think I’ll get to keep them. Hawkeye is certainly easier to make a case for. Just short of top class, he’s admittedly difficult to place, not to mention, difficult to catch right in these types of races. I just feel though, it’s just a case of things falling right for him, and he’s usually a decent price, and always worth a risk. The same can’t be said for Secret Witness. I must have bet him 7 or 8 times since his impressive form at York last summer. There’s a big sprint in him at some point though, and with anyone who follows a horse, you’re terrified you miss him on the day. As he continues to drop down the weights, his day will
come, though whether it’s today is somewhat debatable.
2 horses who enjoyed a successful 2012, are Face The Problem
, and Blaine
. Both have disappointed since their returns, but both seem just the type to surprise here, and at 25’s and 40’s, I might have a wee interest on their own (may be nice on BF, especially Blaine)Main selection is my old pal Tiddliwinks
. Like Hawkeye, he’s just short of top class, and his mark reflects that. Has run poorly at Goodwood in the past, but willing to forgive him that. Also willing to forgive him the odd howlers he occasionally runs. It’s his first handicap start for a while, and I like it when horses of his class do that. Has the ability to shoulder the weight, and at 50’s 5 places, as well as juicier prices on Betfair, very happy to take a chance, and I’m not even drunkNice to hear from you again VTC. I think we would have to be joint owners with Secret Witness, very much in the same boat as you with a couple of successes and a good deal more frustration. I’m already prepared with my "what the hell did you bet him for again" speech, for after the race.
Wholeheartedly agree with you on Tiddliwinks, most certainly the type to take this if in the mood. Coral and Betvictor have gone 66-1 on him and you’ve kind of pushed me towards having a punt after having a look through his form again. At least you don’t have to stake a lot to make it worth while, so not a lot to lose. I’ll owe you a pint if he gets placed.
I have been following Tropics and although he didn’t win very far last time I always felt he was going to get there. He cost a fortune as a young horse and later sold for a pittance. He seems sure to be involved but the odds are pretty skinny. Heaven’s Guest beat Moviesta last time, finishing strongly and has a terrific strike rate. Only 2 3yo horses have won this in the last 30 years though and, again, punters are latching on to the form boost from yesterday. York Glory fairly hosed up last time and must have a great chance again in a contest type that obviously suits him.
At the odds it’s narrowly York Glory for me at 11/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have been following Tropics and although he didn’t win very far last time I always felt he was going to get there. He cost a fortune as a young horse and later sold for a pittance. He seems sure to be involved but the odds are pretty skinny. Heaven’s Guest beat Moviesta last time, finishing strongly and has a terrific strike rate. Only 2 3yo horses have won this in the last 30 years though and, again, punters are latching on to the form boost from yesterday. York Glory fairly hosed up last time and must have a great chance again in a contest type that obviously suits him.
At the odds it’s narrowly York Glory for me at 11/1
You seem to be a man in form Steve so I’m glad you’re also on York Glory
I agree he looked to win impressively last time out and I think a 7 lb hike in the weights may not be enough to stop him. There’s obviously dangers aplenty but at 11/1 I’ll have a go in a type of race where my selections usually finish loser to last than first.
I have been following Tropics and although he didn’t win very far last time I always felt he was going to get there. He cost a fortune as a young horse and later sold for a pittance. He seems sure to be involved but the odds are pretty skinny. Heaven’s Guest beat Moviesta last time, finishing strongly and has a terrific strike rate. Only 2 3yo horses have won this in the last 30 years though and, again, punters are latching on to the form boost from yesterday. York Glory fairly hosed up last time and must have a great chance again in a contest type that obviously suits him.
At the odds it’s narrowly York Glory for me at 11/1
You seem to be a man in form Steve so I’m glad you’re also on York Glory
I agree he looked to win impressively last time out and I think a 7 lb hike in the weights may not be enough to stop him. There’s obviously dangers aplenty but at 11/1 I’ll have a go in a type of race where my selections usually finish loser to last than first.
Looks like a high draw was necessary today. York Glory came towards the middle at one stage but was never travelling as well today as he did at Ascot. I can’t believe how short Tropics went off, some people just love following the Lemming train over the cliff. Back to the drawing board for the next suicide cavalry charge!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wouldn’t rule out further success for Tropics. He was a silly price today but ran well enough in 6th from the unfavoured draw in stall six. The pace and the first three were all on the high side and things will pan out better for Tropics on another day at another track. Good enough runs from Racy and Hawkeyethenoo from poor draws as well.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
, 16s EW seems fair to me!
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