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Ken and Friggo have got this right for the most part.
Firefox – it is meaningless to assess a jockey on strike rate, as it takes no account of the quality of the horses. Jamie Spencer gets on a lot more fancied horses that Hayley Turner, and therefore should (and does) have more winners as a percentage.
Official ratings of the horses would be no good, however, because of handicaps.
I know that a certain forumite will be roused by this comment, but perhaps we could use the average percentage chance of winning implied by the SP (or Befair SP) and compare this against the jockey’s strike rate. This would provide comparison between how a jockey’s mounts are expected to perform, and how they actually do. There are a couple of problems with this approach however, including that the jockey’s perceived ability is already taken account of in the SP, to an extent. This multicollinearity will skew the figures to an extent, but I would say this would only be minimal.
As far as Hayley goes, on a subjective viewing of her rides she seems very good, and probably in the top twenty. As the most successful female jockey, she is bound to get media attention, but no more so than, say, Frankie Dettori…
Maybe I misunderstood, sorry Gerald. Abrupt, maybe, but perhaps that’s just your style. Apologies.
Do you agree that there is less strength in depth than is normally the case in the two-milers? We have been spoilt in recent years with the horses mentioned above, plus the Sound Man/Klairon Davis era, and of course Moscow, Well Chief and Azertyuiop.
Still think Well Chief had the potential to be the best of the lot, had he not got injured. Anyway, enough reminiscing – what wins the VC, and can anyone find a reason to oppose Master Minded?
Gerald Posted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 4:20 pm Post subject:
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There are never more than 3 or 4 top quality 2m chasers.
I am aware of this, so no need for the flippant one liner.
3 or 4 would, for the 2 mile division, represent strength in depth. In fact, it is rare that there are more than 3 or 4 horses genuinely capable of challenging for top honours in any division.
My point was that MM is so far ahead, it is difficult to oppose him, whereas in the days of Viking Flagship, Travado, Deep Sensation, Martha’s Son etc. it was interesting to work out which might win and why.
Would like to read more on this – wasn’t aware of it.
Does anyone have a link/article?
Can see both sides of this. I used to admire PFN for being so open with the media, but there is an element of preaching via his column nowadays, and he doesn’t seem able to take criticism particularly well at present.
However – agree with almost everything said by NWRA, particularly the last bit. Rippling Ring is a 130s horse who is (or at least was) thought to have the potential to improve into a contender for top honours. He is very much starting out and could improve.
Cerium, on the other hand, is on the downgrade, and would be better suited to hunter chasing.
What Fergus Wilson and his family get out of doing what they do is beyond me. Their horses are prefectly capable of winning in the correct grade.
A valid point was made, however, about the non-racing agreements which can be registered at Weatherbys. If connections genuinely felt that Cerium should not be raced again, they could have gone down this route. However, they chose to sell the horse (for much more than he was worth, imo) as a going concern, and therefore have no right to criticise anyone for racing the horse.
Fergus Wilson is a disgrace, however. It is only a matter of time before something happens with one of his horses in a championship race, and then everybody will be saying “why didn’t we do something about this?”…
Martin Pipe – raised the bar in terms of fitness required, and hence has done more for the welfare of racehorses than any other.
Dickinson second, Nicholls third.
This seems to have degenerated into an all-weather flat vs national hunt debate, which is completely pointless.
It’s like comparing football and rugby – completely different sports. I am a confirmed NH addict, and have little interest in the flat, except for pattern races, and therefore next to no interest in the all-weather. However, different strokes for different folks, as they say, and there’s no point trying to denigrate one because you prefer the other.
Back to the issue of all-weather jumping there are a few points to consider, almost all of which have already been made on this thread.
Horse welfare – the primary concern. Now that the surface and obstacles have been improved, there shouldn’t be anything to stop us trialling this again.
Quality – it is likely that the quality will be low. This won’t necessarily make it bad sport though. The quality is low at many point-to-points, and I still love them.
Need/demand – Just because we’ve had a cold snap, doesn’t mean we need a knee-jerk reaction. NH racing will resume soon enough. However, I am so bored without it that I looked at the card for Great Leighs for ten minutes earlier.
Somebody shoot me now.
Wouldn’t have thought they’d be able to get him fit in that sort of time. They’ll probably just see if he’ll stand training, then if he does, back off and aim to bring him back next year.
No point aiming for Aintree, as he clearly doesn’t like the place.
News from RP:
Johnson optimistic for Inglis Drever future
By Tom O’Ryan6.23PM 7 JAN 2009
WHILE Tidal Bay, one of Howard Johnson’s two winners at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, returns into full training on Monday, the other, Inglis Drever, faces an all-important veterinary appointment, which is likely to go a long way to determining his future career.Having injured a hock when he was pulled up on his season reappearance at Newbury in late November, Inglis Drever has since been on the sidelines. But he has responded so well to treatment that Johnson is optimistic that a scan and x-ray, planned for Monday, will give his record-breaking triple World Hurdle winner the go-ahead to return to light training.
“I am very encouraged,” said Johnson on Wednesday.
“He’s as sound as a bell and, although there’s still a little enlargement around the cap of thehock, he seems fine. Only problem he’s got is that he’s bored; he sees other horses going out and probably wonders why he isn’t. But that might change shortly. If the scan and x-ray go well, I’ll tip away quietly with him, and let him do some road work, go on the walker and do some swimming, and get him going again, and see where we end up.”
I have mixed feelings about this. I’d love to see him back racing at his best, but would hate to see him injured again (or worse) on the track. However, if he’s bored at home…. racehorses are for racing, and all that….
Done, and urge everybody to do the same.
Has anyone got an example of an instance when the idiots who pass for a government in this country have actually listened to one of these petitions?
The last one I signed was the hunting one, and a fat lot of good that did….
True, but a few square miles of blankets is likely to be significantly cheaper than a space shuttle, associated rockets and fuel….
Courses geographically close to each other could share, too.
Beat me to it, "graysonscolumn" – I was going to post that!
By the way, shouldn’t you have an apostrophe in your name?!?
A prawn curry van sounds awesome, thanks for the tip. It sounds like Ludlow’s reputation for good food might extend to the racecourse as well then… a prawn curry van is well in excess of the normal racecourse fayre.
That said, the hog roast at Chelters yesterday wasn’t bad, though you’d expect that to be the case for £6!
Thanks chaps. I love the smaller jumping tracks – not too busy, and closer to the ideal of a point-to-point (well – my ideal anyway!)
Ludlow is one I’ve wanted to visit for ages, so fingers crossed re the weather. I’ll take the tip about the grandstand roof, though my wife is more averse to cold than I am!
Agreed Reet – the BHA are hardly what you’d call proactive in most respects, but this one in particular.
Surely if we can put a man on the moon, we can work out an economical and effective way of covering a racecourse?
Hats off to Cheltenham, who had all the bases (and most of the track) covered a long way out for yesterday’s meeting, which I thoroughly enjoyed.
He certainly was impressive – I watched the race from the last fence. He travelled well, jumped well for the most part, and had the others cooked a long way out.
However – I get the feeling that Kicks for Free is probably short of top class over fences (as he was over hurdles and in bumpers – admirable though his achievements in those spheres were). If The Market Man gave his true running at Kempton, when easily brushed aside by Breedsbreeze, this doesn’t say much for Kicks for Free’s form, and therefore the form of Calgary Bay.
I’m of the opinion that CB is certainly useful, but nothing more at this stage. He could go well in the Arkle (connections would never go for the Sun Alliance, correct or not), but I would say he is likely to fall short of the best and will end up in handicaps ultimately.
He will be hyped, however, as he will be saddles with the "Hen and Terry’s new Best Mate" tag, a la Racing Demon…
I hope he proves me wrong and develops into a top class performer, but strictly on form, he’s got a good bit to find at present.
