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Don’t get too much racing over here in Holland, but what I have seen of Hayley Turner is pretty good. Any other opnions out there, and how does she rate compared to some of the male riders?
I think if you can remain objective I suggest you look at her stats for the past three seasons, in particular the current AW campaign. Along with Jimmy Quinn she has ridden more horses than any other jockey and yet enjoys a 9% SR and is sitting just off the top 10.
So, the more rides you have, the higher your strike rate should be? You appear to be forming a negative opinion of Hayley simply because the media are gushing about her. Try remaining objective yourself.
https://theracingforum.co.uk/forum/v … hp?t=75596
Nice One Hayley thread. To summarise my POV, I would say she’s in the top fifteen jockeys riding in Great Britain today.
Sorry Rory but it didn’t strike me that Firefox was not being objective. He was just stating facts. She does attract a disproportionate amount of media publicity given that her SR is less than some others though.
Sorry Rory but it didn’t strike me that Firefox was not being objective. He was just stating facts. She does attract a disproportionate amount of media publicity given that her SR is less than some others though.
Strike rate is a stunningly inept way of determining the quality of a jockey. Hayley Turner does indeed get more publicity than her male peers, but that’s (a) hardly surprising, and (b) hardly something to hold against her. Nobody really needs disabusing of the notion that she’s the next Lester Piggott, do they?
I’m guessing you posted that before seeing my earlier comment Firefox. I’m not arguing that Hayley Turner is better than messrs Spencer, Crowley et al. She is however a very talented rider who has made a major breakthrough in a sport that remains biased against women competitors. The fact that she is the darling of the media reflects that fact and is fully understandable. Anyone who wants racing to become more accepted as a mainstream sport, but complains about such coverage of its most popular participants, doesn’t really get it. She doesn’t need to be statistically in the top ten to justify herself; the fact that she is truly competitive is a step forward for the sport and its attitudes and that’s why she deserves to be lauded.
Rory, would you agree that SR, whilst not indicating the quality of the jockey, is a strong indicator of the quality of horses they ride. A proper test of ability might be to base jockey performance on the strike rate in comparison to Official Ratings. It might just show that jockeys well down the table are more successful at winning on donkeys and therefore begs the question as to whether they have the most ability or not.
Ken,
What about handicaps? Getting a well-handicapped 60 horse to win is easier than doing the same with a poorly-handicapped 100 horse.
The best way to judge a jockey is sadly completely subjective IMO. If you think Hayley Turner is a good jockey, treat her as such. If you think she’s over-rated and you’ll get an edge by "going against the hype", do so.
I’d agree that judgement of ability is subjective at the end of the day, but taking Ken’s point, if OR is not perfect maybe some analysis of strike rate and SP would be an alternative test.
The jockey analysis tables on ATR seem to suggest that Hayley:-
1) Lacks the stamina for long distance races.
2) Is less than successful at Yarmouth.
3) Is a good all weather jockey and adequate on turf.
4) Has a particular distance where she struggles. 7 furlongs, if memory serves me.
5) She performs best at Lingfield.Ken and Friggo have got this right for the most part.
Firefox – it is meaningless to assess a jockey on strike rate, as it takes no account of the quality of the horses. Jamie Spencer gets on a lot more fancied horses that Hayley Turner, and therefore should (and does) have more winners as a percentage.
Official ratings of the horses would be no good, however, because of handicaps.
I know that a certain forumite will be roused by this comment, but perhaps we could use the average percentage chance of winning implied by the SP (or Befair SP) and compare this against the jockey’s strike rate. This would provide comparison between how a jockey’s mounts are expected to perform, and how they actually do. There are a couple of problems with this approach however, including that the jockey’s perceived ability is already taken account of in the SP, to an extent. This multicollinearity will skew the figures to an extent, but I would say this would only be minimal.
As far as Hayley goes, on a subjective viewing of her rides she seems very good, and probably in the top twenty. As the most successful female jockey, she is bound to get media attention, but no more so than, say, Frankie Dettori…
The jockey analysis tables on ATR seem to suggest that Hayley:-
1) Lacks the stamina for long distance races.
2) Is less than successful at Yarmouth.
3) Is a good all weather jockey and adequate on turf.
4) Has a particular distance where she struggles. 7 furlongs, if memory serves me.
5) She performs best at Lingfield.Ken,
The lack of a smiley worries me. Are you being serious?
Now you’ve got me worried, Salselon. Is it that you expect me to lack brevity or is my statistical analysis a joke? What the heck have I done wrong now? Be careful, very careful. I’ve awoken to the joys of spring, the sun is shining and I’m ready to take on all of my detractors.
Cheers
Ken (formerly known as Son of Fist)If only, then I could be looking forward to a tidy inheritance and regular trips to see ‘daddy’ in Bangkok. No, to avoid litigation, I solemnly declare that Fist of Fury is not my papa.
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