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My hero is my Dad, for many reasons, but particularly the dignity with which he coped with the degenerative (and sadly fatal in his case) Motor Neurone Disease.
Back in my riding out days I was always taught that the absence of any "spring-back" (for want of a better word) from beach sand puts horses’ tendons at risk.
For that reason we only used to take horses to the beach when everything else was frozen, and we only ever did very long, very steady canters on the wet bit next to the sea. (Apart from one memorable occasion when I got carted, and received a bollocking too.)
Would this be the Whiteladies Road Coral/Sainsburys?
If so, I suggest going to the Winning Post further up the hill instead – much more friendly in there…
Unfortunately my budget will only run to a single figure number of lines, so I tend to pick two against the field in the PP and two in the Hennessy and hope for the best.
I was going for the fantastically unoriginal Chapoturgeon and Tranquil Sea, but the rain is putting me off them (especially the latter)….
As far as the Hennessy goes, I have no idea. Perhaps I’ll take a chance on Denman.
Northern Alliance sounds like he’s sure to stay.
God knows what I’ll put as my Paddy Power horse in my Ten-to-follow lines…
From Post site:
Nicholls delighted with Denman gallop
TRAINER Paul Nicholls was delighted with Denman after the 2008 Gold Cup winner worked at Exeter racecourse on Tuesday.
As part of his preparation for the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on November 28, Denman was partnered by Ruby Walsh in a gallop with stablemate Beshabar that left Nicholls purring.
"That’s just what he wanted – absolutely perfect," Nicholls told At The Races.
"He always goes better at the track than at home and he’s a different horse to last year, which was dreadful. He wasn’t fit and he’s better when he’s heavier and can work. That was ideal."
Regarding the Hennessy, for which Denman is abest-priced 13-2 with Victor Chandler, the champion trainer added: "He won it two years ago and loves the track – he’s unbeaten there. If he runs up to his Gold Cup form, he’ll be hard to beat."
In inclined to agree; I can just see him murdering them like he did two years ago. He’s such a big horse, I can’t think top weight will make too much difference, and a lot of the others will be running from out of the handicap too in any case….
I still have reservations about Hurricane Fly. He’s extremely over-hyped – obviously he could easily find the necessary improvement and be the best hurdler we’ve ever seen, but he could just as easily be a disappointment. Yes, I know the manner of his victories has been imperious, and I know his form has been franked all over the place, but he still needs to improve before mixing it with the established hurdlers.
Could someone tell me what piece of form he’s got
in the book
that entitles him to be such a short price for the CH?
I thought he was impressive, and he looked wonderful in the paddock too. He has filled out over the summer for sure.
10-1 looks good value to me, having been second as a 5yo it is easy to see him going one better as a 6yo. Binocular is better on a flat track (although still very good at Chelters), and Hurricane Fly does have a good bit to find on the book.
At 10-1 CH looks easily the best value in the race at present.
I would construct a distribution curve for each (a bell curve would be an example), though a batsman’s would probably look nothing like that – scores are unlikely to be concentrated around the mean. More likely concentrated around 0-10 and spread thinly across the remainder.
(Unless it’s Ian Bell we’re talking about, and then it probably would be concentrated around the 40 mark!)
You would then need to use ‘integration’ to find the area which overlapped under the two curves when you drew them on the same graph.
I think….
Long time since I did any heavy maths.
To answer the question Andrew you would need to know the distribution of their scores around their averages – i.e. how consistent they are.
To take an extreme example, if Batsman A averages 50 because he scores 50 in every single innings, and Batsman B averages 40 because he scores 40 in every single innings, the probability of A outscoring B is 100%.
To take another extreme example, if Batsman A averages 50 because he scores 100 in half of his innings and a duck in the other half, and Batsman B averages 40 because he scores 40 in every single innings, the probability of A outscoring B is 50%.
Impossible to answer the question without knowing exactly how consistent each player is. Even if you did know, then it would be fairly complicated mathematically to compute the probabilities.
Nathan – you’ve given me a few too many points there! I selected the ill-fated Brad Haddin as my power player, not Shane Watson as above, and foolishly failed to include a reserve.
My total should therefore be 115 fewer points – 679, putting me 53 points behind David in second place.
Well done David.
