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Entries released yesterday for this and a few firms have it priced up. The one who interests me in this is the Willie Mullins mare Quevega . She hacked up in her first two starts for Mullins in Ireland (a soft ground Maiden Hurdle and a Heavy ground Novice’s race) before disappointing in behind Won In The Dark – as far as i know there’s no excuse put forward for that run.
The run that interests me the most though is her 3rd place finishing behind Grivette and Hurricane Fly the form of which has been franked by both the front two (Grivette having now won 4 on the spin since PU behind Questarabad), the 4th has won a Grade 3 whilst the 7th is Grade 1 placed. Given the current climate provided the meeting goes ahead I can’t see her not getting her ground.
She’s not run since that but provided she’s fit and healthy – and she should be running off a mark of around 127, which IMHO looks unbelievably lenient for a horse of her quality.
25/1 with Bet365 looks far too big about a potential David Nicholson Hurdle contender.
She was very weak in the market before the race that Won In The Dark won at Punchestown and I think the excuse they offered was that the ground was simply too quick for her.
I agree with you that the 25/1 is far too big. Willie’s horses are absolutely flying at the moment.
Sentry Duty looks so obvious for this. Nicky Henderson loves to win this and he is probably more suited to this course than Punjabi was last season. Up 10lbs for his last win is a bit scary though.
I just prefer Jonjo’s Sunnhillboy who done me and many ohers a good turn at Sandown and is definitaly getting better everytime he runs.
Ignore the nk winning distance at Sandown, AP knew exactly what he was doing and was never going to get beat and there were some decent animals in that race..
He will love the strong gallop assured and the long run from the final turn at Newbury will be right up his street. He has a very good turn of foot and won’t shirk a fight either. which can be the difference between winning and losing in this race.
14/1 with the sponsors is a good ew bet IMO
Think at 12-1 Numide is still very well treated and there is a fair chance he could have ground conditions in his favour again, think he is a mud lover but ran a good race last time on ground better than ideal.
Prince Taime @ 20-1 also makes some appeal, as another who is still on a decent looking mark and wouldnt have found conditions ideal last time.
Wouldnt really fancy betting in this race as it stands, until I know what the ground is going to be but with the Ladbroke being run on goodish ground the value would look to be there if this comes up softer.
Hobbs has a strong hand in this, including, as Bulwark mentions, Prince Taime. Hibiki is entered and also the JP horse Belcantista.
However, I also notice the latter entered in the Supreme Novices’ which I may be tempted to nibble at if I think Hobbs will run him there.
Psycho is now as low as 7/1 fav. Who are these bookies trying to kid?
He’s a decent horse but no way does he have the form or ability to win this race.
Just a glance at the entries here tells me this is a much better race than the Pierse Hurdle was.
A close look at the form of the County..splitting a 50/1 shot and a 40/1 shot then a similar outcome in the Pierse wouldn’t have me rushing off to back him, handicap or not.
Quevega is entered in the Limestone Lad Hurdle over 2m3 at Naas on Saturday. Could be a nice little prep before Newbury.
I read somewhere this morning (I think in the Racing Post) that Mullins said none of his entries are likely to run as his runners don’t tend to perform well in handicaps over here
As I said 7.s Psycho was a joke and it wouldn’t suprise me if he doesn’t come over for this as it looks areally hot race this year. Ladbrokes are going 12’s and Paddy Power hasgone from 8’s to 10s which says it all.
I’m surprised nobody has yet mentioned this race. I have a strong feeling for Medermit here and just wondered if anyone agreed with me.
Mike.The problem with this race, is that it is very easy to fancy quite a few. I’ve had a few bets, but I think a couple of them might not turn up.
Impeccable form. The interesting aspect about Medermit is that he is a novice.Okay someone, what record do novices have in this race?
The only novices to win this race are Make A Stand and Large Action. They both went on to feature prominently in the Champion Hurdle. Whether Medermit is up to that is guesswork at the moment. The fact he doesn’t have handicap experience is also a negative.
Mike.At the minute with the ground as soft I’d be looking at Numide 6-1, Stellino 16-1, and
Takethebreeze at 40-1
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If the ground is genuinely soft then
Takethebreeze
could well be the steal of the century, was fancied last time but didnt have ideal ground conditions and still ran a respectable 8th in the ladbroke, this time on soft he should be much better and with Harry Skelton taking 5lbs off hes carrying next to no weight.
Looking at the jockey bookings for saturday, if it is soft then Ruby is on the wrong Nicholls horse. The softer it is the more confident I’d be with Takethebreeze.
Bulwark,
I see they are now giving the going for the hurdle course as soft gs in places. This suggests it may not be as testing as first thought. Have just read on the RP site that Henderson has walked the track and is very tempted to run Sentry Duty saying the ground should be fine.
Mike.
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