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Hi, the final deccies are out (48 hours – AON Chase is 24 hours).
I’m having trouble copying them here – could someone else have a go?
We had a lot of gentle rain in Ashford today – I presume Newbury was the same. The going on the Chase course has changed from Gd to Sft, to Soft, so presumably the hurdle course is softer too.
I’m not going to bother to say who I’m on. Suffice to say, if they’re less than 20/1 I ain’t on, if they’re more than 20/1 there’s a fair chance I’m on.
If I had a bet on a horse at less than 20/1, it would be Presenting Copper. The horse is running with a 5 lb penalty, and officially is about 5 lbs well in.
The other horse that is missing from my portfolio, which I need to add, is last year’s winner, Wingman, who is only carrying 8 lbs more.
Have backed Takethebreeze at 40-1 (for if ground is soft) and Stellino at 14-1 (for the offchance that the pace is slow). Those are the two I wll do for now will look to have another couple on the day dpending on how conditions are at the time.
Looking at the field I would expect a decent pace as so many of them would look to be wanting one.
Psycho, Dancing Tornado and Silver Jaro were all IMO foiled by a slow pace in the Pierse Hurdle, and I would consider all three of them to be serious candidates.
I Have Dreamed should show some serious improvement if getting a decent pace in his races, and could be Moores Wingman of this year if getting in.
Numide wants soft conditions and if he gets them then he should prove his worth off 11-2 @ 6-1, his run in the ladbroke was IMO his strongest looking piece of form to date, and if he gets soft ground he will be very hard to beat IMO.
Belcantista definitely cant be counted out but think he may be one for good-soft or better, and will see how everything works out, but am going to go against him probably.
A decent clip on good ground would be right up Songes street but wouldnt really have him in mind for this.
Ashkazar, despite a big weight, isnt really worth writing off if the ground is good-soft, and the pace is decent, as the pipe yard has hit better form and he was once viewed as much better than this.
Khyber Kim and European dream are IMO very in and out horses who on their day are very, very good, where I probably wouldnt be inclined to play either, I wouldnt be 100% surprised if either were to win.
Presenting Copper would probably like it the softer the better, and although I backed her last time as I thought she was the most likely winner as everything stood on the day, I dont really see her winning this especially when you look at her weights with resepct to those around her.
Issaquah IMO was beaten by the better ground last time and could really see her putting in a decent performance this time around especially with the weights and her 7lb claimer. She looks like an almost definite play in my book.
Dee Eee Williams and Medermit both have a similar level of form , however D.E.W. would like to look a decent pace on good to soft and medermit probably on the softer side of that, I think that Dee Eee Williams was done by Alfie Flits last time as the race was essentially a speed race, and he isnt that sort.
So I’d be looking at:
Good/Soft
Slow Pace
Stellino 14s
American Trilogy 25s
Wingman 20sFast Pace
Psycho 10s
I Have Dreamed 40sIssaquah 16s
Dancing Tornado 25s
Silver Jaro 50s
Dee Eee Williams 33s
Ashkazar 16sSoft
Slow Pace
Numide 6s
Stellino 14s
American Trilogy 25s
Dancing Tornado 25sFast Pace
Takethebreeze 33s
Numide 6sIssaquah 16s
Medermit 16s
Like I say I’d be leaning towards a fast pace, so really just wainting to see what the ground will be. Issaquah looks like a very good e/w bet though IMO.
I fancy
Helens Vision
to run a big race here, she’s been backed with several firms aswell.
Record at Newbury
11341
The form of last two races looks solid to me, first being beaten by United (who franked the form nto) and the second placed horse Chief Yeoman went on to win a class one. Last race finished a neck behind Chomba Womba, not bad form in the grand scheme of things.
She likes to lead so you’ll definately get a run for your money, i’m tempted to come out of punting hibernation to be honest, but i’ll leave it to you folks to clean up. Don’t think she’d want it too soft though.
Good luck!
I’m on at 28’s although I’d be worried about her getting a run, even if the meeting does go ahead.
"I’m on at 28’s"
Has anyone ever seen Rory and Fists in the same room together?
Colin
Race doesnt look to be moving to kempton which is a shame, was really looking forward to this one more than any others this weekend.
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