Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Zilzal,
A pal of mine, who is a very shrewd judge, does quite well with his placepots by doing what you mention – i.e. going against the crowd and leaving out the obvious choices. He invariably uses permutations often covering all runners when there are less than 5 in a race.
The idea is that if a hot pot doesn’t win, it is unlikely to be placed under both codes, but you need a few picks against it to improve your chances. You will probably need to reduce your unit stake to keep the costs down until you build up(with a bit of luck) a reserve.
There is no mathematical correlation involved. It’s just that if you get one race wrong, it could be any one of 6, and if you get two races wrong, it is any two from 6 or 15 possible combinations.
Good luck with your bets. and remember you’re trying to back six winners and most punters (including me) would be happy with one, so don’t be too hard on yourself if you have a poor run. Enjoy the moment.
Hi Rich
Losing runs are part of the furniture in the systems world, especially if your average odds are relatively high.<br>Tipsters who select fancied horses at prices below 5/1 often have losing runs of 20+, so keep the faith- you are DEFINITELY on to something with your system. I would be fascinated to know how it works as I’ve fiddled around for years without getting anywhere near your results.
Zilzal,
I would certainly endorse rudeboy’s advice about keeping going with your usual methods, particularly as you have enjoyed some modest success in the past.
However, I cannot see the placepot as a ‘value’ bet in the betting sense of the word unless there is a carry over from a previous meeting – which doesn’t happen very often. IMO, it’s very good entertainment for a small outlay and could be value for money in this sense. You can have a pick(s) in every race and it provides interest throughout the meeting, even when you’ve gone out. It’s quite common to get 5/6 and 4/6 races right which makes you think you’ve had a near miss, but there are 6 ways to get 5/6 and no less than 15 ways to get4/6.
The deduction from the pool of over 25% precludes it from being good value in the betting sense.
Hi Rich
No need for improvement as you are still finding profitable winners during the drought that seems to have beset the rest of us.
Hi king,
I’ve often thought that you should be able to have a bet on your horse coming second rather than winning.
In theory it’s almost as hard as backing winners, especially in handicaps.
Like you, I’ve suffered a frustrating number of seconds recently, and since I won’t bet each-way my betting account has suffered. No doubt if we could bet on seconds they would all win.
I know that’s not how it is in reality, that’s how it seems as one’s perception gets distorted.
Hi Rich
The system is churning out the winners at decent prices and all credit to you for that. I’m a little intrigued, to say the least, that it comes up with Royal Exposure who has been off the course for over 3 years.
I’ve been looking at racing systems for longer than I care to remember and this selection has me baffled – well, nearly baffled. There’s only one criteria specific to the horse that could apply but I won’t mention it here in case it puts your secrecy in jeopardy. Of course there could be other criteria such as trainer/jockey/grade at work in the system and I certainly don’t want to start a series of posts trying to guess what criteria you use.<br>Fascinating stuff…..I hope it wins.
Hi Rex
Good luck with 2yo system. Should do well in May through to July. A bit worrying that you doubt the ability of L Dettori – he’s one of the best. Don’t just take my word for it, ask anybody in racing.
Hi RichNFord
I have to compliment you. Your system is doing as well as you said it would. I remember posting a short query when you started asking what the system was. I can see now why you are keeping it close to your chest. You said at the start that there will be long losing runs and no doubt they will happen, but your LSP at the moment is outstanding and the LSB would top any tipster’s table (including expensive tipping lines) where there has to be a fair number of selections every day. If this keeps up you will be ‘head-hunted’ by one of these services.
Sad day for racing.
A horse I have never backed, but the number of times he made me wish I had.
I’m sure he’ll be remembered by a race in his honour at Newmarket or Ascot, places that won’t be the same without him this season.
At what odds? or regardless of the odds? and for how much?
Sounds suicidal to me, Alcatraz, or are you having a laugh?
(Edited by Artemis at 7:04 pm on April 12, 2004)
darrell
Good luck with the system, but where do you get your sporting life from?<br>Would the chronicle be a fair substitute?
Agreed, MrE, a good discussion. If the game is straight and you are beating it, long may your wealth increase.
MR E<br>I have to concede that you may have a point, especially if the programme has any in-built mechanism for balancing itself out in the long run. I would doubt that this is the case, but honestly don’t know. I’ve always been extremely suspicious of on- line casinos for obvious reasons. The main one being that they can be manipulated in favour of the house. If you have been able to anticipate such practices or figure out the programme and turn it to your own benefit, then good luck. I’m pretty sure that anyone trying these casinos for the first time has a fair chance of winning because that gets the punter interested. If you carry on winning and your account is then closed, it suggests to me that the game isn’t straight and that you’ve somehow sussed it out. An honest casino will never turn away a punter from their roulette tables.
Mr E<br>My point restated concerns any lomg run position on any game of pure chance.<br>I totally agree that the chances on the first spin are the same as the chances after any number of spins. However, the longer you play, the more likely it becomes that the percentage working against you will take effect.<br>At one extreme(one evens bet on red or black), the odds on you winning are 19/18 against i.e. you are trying to beat the bank’s percentage of 2.7%. It is easy to see how you can walk away winning.<br>At the other extreme, suppose you could play non-stop for a month, the wheel spinning tens of thousands of times with you betting evens on each spin. The only certainy in the second scenario is that you would lose, and your loss would be very very close(+ or – 0.0001 %) of your stakes. This is a statistical fact upon which casinos have prospered. The same logic can be applied to all games of chance and to many other situations such as insurance. Business empires have been founded upon this ‘law of large numbers’. You seem to infer that there exists some knowlege which runs contrary to these statistical laws. Are you asking us to believe in some unscientific wizardry?
Or, are you perhaps suggesting that a wheel cannot be perfect and has some inherent bias which can be detected through observations? The only advantage for the casino might be a wheel that was biased towards the zero to crank up the house’s percentage. As far as I know, the wheels are tested regularly by gaming inspectors to check for bias using the statistical laws mentioned earlier. I suppose these inspectors are bribeable, so maybe……………..
MR E<br>The point I was making is that I never play roulette or any other games that are pure chance, although I do admit to buying the odd lottery ticket. There are certainly games in the casino such as blackjack where some skill can be exercised, but roulette – forget it as far as systematic or informed betting is concerned. I agree that it may represent better value than most other forms of gambling, but your chances of winning decrease the longer you play. My simple advice on roulette is to have one maximum bet every time you visit the casino on red/black or odd/even, then walk away – win or lose. It’s the best value you can get.<br>Granted, not much fun or entertainment but the best possible value.
