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Placepot Poser

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  • #1447
    zilzal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 669

    I aim at a placepot dividend average of around £200.00 and so must make some adventurous selections, say 2 favourites, two 2nd/r3rd favourites and two outsiders. My average number of placed horses is just is just under 3 (2.9). I have had some modest success for a number of years  but have recently hit a losing streak and am  beginning to question the value of the bet. Should I be going for more consistent wins by going for obvious selections with tighter dividends ?

    #53525
    rudeboy
    Member
    • Total Posts 10

    Q. Should I be going for more consistent wins by going for obvious selections with tighter dividends?

    A. No. :angry: This logic is the same as selecting favorites. Over time you will not win (i.e. dividends > £500). In addition, obvious selections = follow the crowd = low dividends. For the big hits you need to take an opposite view based on reasonable selection logic. For me the Tote Place-pot is ‘the’ best value bet in racing ;) given that for a small outlay there are potential big returns.. The fact that these are few and far between are part of the game..  :(

    Losing runs are a fact of life whatever the betting method. If your method has served you well thus far.. why change it?

    Keep the faith … :cool:

    <br>

    (Edited by rudeboy at 1:43 pm on May 24, 2004)

    #53526
    zilzal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 669

    Thanks for the advice, rudeboy. My problem is that I have probably been more adventurous in my selections than I admitted in my original post. I think you have counter that  fear of a paltry dividend which makes you go for too many speculative selections.

    Is there any cause for nervousness in placepot betting with the large firms as against the tote? I think I would feel safer if the final leg of a potentially huge dividend involving, say, a div 2 of  maiden at  Brighton was with the tote. And one other……….How practical would it be for the Tote to introduce a Placepot  Option style bet where you have only to select  in the first  one or two races and subsequently fill in a quadpot type bet later if your first two have been placed? This would mean a different pool to make it viable but it might attract more serious punters who do not want to make six selections in six minutes before the off of the first race !

    #53528
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Zilzal,

    I would certainly endorse rudeboy’s advice about keeping going with your usual methods, particularly as you have enjoyed some modest success in the past.

    However, I cannot see the placepot as a ‘value’ bet in the betting sense of the word unless there is a carry over from a previous meeting  – which doesn’t happen very often. IMO, it’s very good entertainment for a small outlay and could be value for money in this sense.  You can have a pick(s) in every race and it provides interest throughout the meeting, even when you’ve gone out. It’s quite common to get 5/6 and 4/6 races right which makes you think you’ve had a near miss, but there are 6 ways to get 5/6 and no less than 15 ways to get4/6.

    The deduction from the pool of over 25% precludes it from being good value in the betting sense.

    #53529
    zilzal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 669

    Artemis,<br>You’re right about the 32.5 savage deduction from placepot total. The exacta may be a better proposition with shorter losing streaks.

    The hope or misconception of the placepotter is , however, that there is a disproportionate number of  placepotters, particularly at the racecourse,  going  for obvious selections and and  there is therefore more profit for speculative punters  when the favourites don’t oblige. I always go for a single line bets which may be a bit optimistic. Have you a view on multiple permutations in these bets and are you suggesting there is a mathematical correlation in the number of times you get 3, 4,  5 , 6 up etc ?

    #53530
    zilzal
    Participant
    • Total Posts 669

    My maths are wrong there I think… the deductions is 27.5 (72.5 left of pot! )

    #53531
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Zilzal,

    A pal of mine, who is a very shrewd judge, does quite well with his placepots by doing what you mention – i.e. going against the crowd and leaving out the obvious choices. He invariably uses permutations often covering all runners when there are less than 5 in a race.

    The idea is that if a hot pot doesn’t win, it is unlikely to be placed under both codes, but you need a few picks against it to improve your chances. You will probably need to reduce your unit stake to keep the costs down until you build up(with a bit of luck) a reserve.

    There is no mathematical correlation involved. It’s just that if you get one race wrong, it could be any one of 6, and if you get two races wrong, it is any two from 6 or 15 possible combinations.

    Good luck with your bets. and remember you’re trying to back six winners and most punters (including me) would be happy with one, so don’t be too hard on yourself if you have a poor run. Enjoy the moment.

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