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Rich,
What have you got to worry about? At the start you said you expected a 14% strike rate and decent profits. You are 0.3% below you expected hit rate and showing a 20% LSP. That’s top stuff.
With a 14% strike rate you can expect worse weeks than this. Keep up the good work and look at the big picture.
You’re absolutely right of course ACR1, the system will have worse times than this, and we haven’t seen the real best times yet either so the big picture is still quite rosy! – I’m just trying to provide a bit of light-hearted commentary – but I could certainly do with a good day after last night’s events at the Withdean!!!
Cheers
Rich<br>
21 May Stake Plan bets 2 points<br>4.10 Haydock Libre 10/11 @ 8/1<br>5.15 Haydock Tommy Smith 11/11 @ 8/1<br>7.50 Stratford Banjo Hill PU/8 @ 12/1<br>8.35 Bath Dark Raider 5/11 @ 10/1
May<br>19 winners from 147 selections – SR 12.93%<br>LSP: 29.83  LSO: 45.75  LBF: 114.25 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 88.83  SSO: 120.00  SBF: 232.08 (after 5% commission)
Overall<br>34 winners from 252 selections – SR 13.49%<br>LSP: 47.83  LSO: 75.00  LBF: 190.21 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 148.83  SSO: 200.50  SBF: 419.23 (after 5% commission)<br><br>Pants. Again. :( <br>
On the plus side this week I guess the new filters ruled out two more losers, would have been three if I’d sorted it a day earlier, and there are FOUR other selections today that have been ruled out by them. Let’s hope the winner(s) are among these nine here!!!
Posting slightly earlier today as there’s an earlyish one.
Stake Plan bets 3 points<br>1.00 Ayr Alafdal 25/1<br>1.30 Haydock Connect 14/1<br>3.25 Newmarket Danesmead 20/1<br>4.40 Haydock Bramantino 7/1<br>6.20 Stratford Ressource 14/1<br>6.50 Stratford Montpelier 14/1<br>7.50 Stratford Fear Siuil 7/1<br>8.20 Stratford Colquhoun 12/1<br>8.50 Stratford Sigwells Club Boy 14/1
Be Lucky!
Rich
Hopefully that’s a change of luck at last Rich!
Polar Champ falls at the last when 1.02 on Betfair leaving Colquhoun clear :biggrin:
KM
And just noticed that the only BB winner today was in a battle as well when left clear again at the last. So all in all whilst it’s been a frustrating day (week, month!) it could have been a fair bit worse.
KM
Yep, very lucky with Colquhoun, but have been SO unlucky with two or three this last week I think I’ve still got a fair bit of good luck owed to me!!
Rich
PS 1.02 on Betfair? – that’s what Swindon were with 10 seconds to go on Thursday!<br>
22 May Stake Plan bets 3 points<br>1.00 Ayr Alafdal 8/8 @ 25/1<br>1.30 Haydock Connect 2/15 @ 12/1<br>3.25 Newmarket Danesmead 11/18 @ 16/1<br>4.40 Haydock Bramantino 5/10 @ 7/1<br>6.20 Stratford Ressource 3/16 @ 10/1<br>6.50 Stratford Montpelier 2/9 @ 11/1<br>7.50 Stratford Fear Siuil UR/8 @ 8/1<br>8.20 Stratford Colquhoun 1/10 @ 9/1 – 21.00 on Betfair!<br>8.50 Stratford Sigwells Club Boy 6/14 @ 16/1
May<br>20 winners from 156 selections – SR 12.82%<br>LSP: 30.83  LSO: 47.75  LBF: 125.25 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 91.83  SSO: 126.00  SBF: 265.08 (after 5% commission)
Overall<br>35 winners from 261 selections – SR 13.41%<br>LSP: 48.83  LSO: 77.00  LBF: 201.21 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 151.83  SSO: 206.50  SBF: 452.23 (after 5% commission)<br><br>We’ve had some rotten luck in the last week with Clarinch Claymore, Illusive and not least with Montpelier which was barged out of the way at the last by the winner tonight, but we got a slice of it back with Colquhoun, the fav going at the first, the 2nd fav soon after and the likely winner at the last leaving our charge clear. It was looking a bit desperate ’till then and just to add insult to injury the last of the four filtered selections came in at 7/1 from 10s!
I’m going to reconsider the staking plan slightly as it seems crazy to go back to 1 point after just 1 LSP today, will report back on this tomorrow after I’ve slept on it.
Hopefully Colquhoun’s win will mark the start of some good luck for a while now.
Rich<br>
AAARRRGGGHHH!!! :angry: Post is late bacause after doing my Saturday results download I discovered that for some reason, I still know not why, my program failed to pick up Wicked Nice Fella last Sunday, even though it picked up others with identical criteria. Bloody thing won at 17/2 and I could certainly have done with that extra 8.50 LSP this week!!! It’s something that could only ever have happened on a Sunday and this is the only instance to date, I’ve found a way round it for the future, and although I won’t include this one in the results, I will mention it as a footnote when I post end of month data in the first post of the thread. SORRY GUYS!!! I thought I had sorted all the bugs ages ago!!!
I have also made a slight amendment to the staking plan. If on a winning day after a losing run we are staking 5 or less points and fail to make up at least half of the previous day’s losses, we adopt the stake from the previous day rather than the one before that. Over five points and the relative difference becomes irrelevant.
Stake Plan bets 2 points<br>2.40 Hereford Tarboush 10/1<br>3.00 Southwell Tarongo 11/2<br>3.40 Hereford Sir Walter 12/1<br>3.50 Brighton Mrs Cube 12/1<br>4.00 Southwell Accepting 13/2<br>4.10 Hereford Regal Vision 6/1<br>4.50 Brighton Miss Madame 6/1<br>5.10 Hereford Coolbythepool 9/2
Be Lucky!
Rich
23 May Stake Plan bets 2 points<br>2.40 Hereford Tarboush 1/6 @ 7/2 – 10.11 on Betfair!<br>3.00 Southwell Tarongo 2/8 @ 6/1<br>3.40 Hereford Sir Walter 2/14 @ 4/1<br>3.50 Brighton Mrs Cube 10/19 @ 16/1<br>4.00 Southwell Accepting PU/10 @ 11/2<br>4.10 Hereford Regal Vision PU/9 @ 10/1<br>4.50 Brighton Miss Madame 3/8 @ 9/1<br>5.10 Hereford Coolbythepool 3/11 @ 3/1
May<br>21 winners from 164 selections – SR 12.80%<br>LSP: 26.33  LSO: 43.50  LBF: 126.90 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 82.83  SSO: 117.50  SBF: 268.38 (after 5% commission)
Overall<br>36 winners from 269 selections – SR 13.38%<br>LSP: 44.33  LSO: 72.75  LBF: 202.86 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 142.83  SSO: 198.00  SBF: 455.53 (after 5% commission)<br><br>So much for that change of luck! Hit the woodwork four more times today and the one easy winner was a short price due to defections.
Hang in there guys, it has to improve soon!
Rich<br>
Hi Rich
No need for improvement as you are still finding profitable winners during the drought that seems to have beset the rest of us.
Summut’s gotta give soon….
Stake Plan bets 3 points<br>2.20 Carlisle Open Mind 12/1<br>4.10 Leicester Anduril 16/1<br>6.45 Windsor Dandouce 4/1<br>8.45 Windsor Roaming Vagabond 11/2
Be Lucky!
Rich
24 May Stake Plan bets 3 points<br>2.20 Carlisle Open Mind 3/13 @ 12/1<br>4.10 Leicester Anduril 4/10 @ 14/1<br>6.45 Windsor Dandouce 4/14 @ 7/2<br>8.45 Windsor Roaming Vagabond 18/18 @ 14/1
May<br>21 winners from 168 selections – SR 12.50%<br>LSP: 22.33  LSO: 39.50  LBF: 122.90 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 70.83  SSO: 105.50  SBF: 256.38 (after 5% commission)
Overall<br>36 winners from 273 selections – SR 13.19%<br>LSP: 40.33  LSO: 68.75  LBF: 198.86 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 130.83  SSO: 186.00  SBF: 443.53 (after 5% commission)<br><br>Another crossbar hit, and a good run in the second, but at the end of the day I couldn’t pick my nose at the moment and even managed to stop the knockover Dandouce! Watch out for tomorrow’s lays. :(
Rich<br>
Keep the faith Rich
This month is still in profit a couple of good winners will turn it around. I have not seen a system on the forums as successful as yours.
Just keep to the rules as they are, since they are proven and all will be back to normal in a few days.
:)
Paul                                      ÂÂÂ
(Edited by paul66 at 8:24 am on May 25, 2004)
I’ll second Pauls post, just keep at it Rich–don’t panic!! <br>If the principles and rules are sound it’ll come right.
Let’s see how many get placed today!
Stake Plan bets 4 points<br>4.50 Lingfield Light Brigade 16/1<br>7.05 Sedgefield Northern Echo 20/1<br>8.20 Bangor Dardanus 7/2<br>8.50 Bangor Impish Jude 16/1<br>9.05 Sedgefield Mick Murphy 10/1
Be Lucky!
Rich
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