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It’s been some time since I looked at the Racing Post, but I’m assuming they haven’t changed their handicapping/ratings systems and methods since I last looked.
The RP ratings as published on race day are definitely not affected by the forecast SP. In fact the reverse is true.
The master rating is adjusted to reflect weight carried, weight for age, race conditions etc and more importantly, to reflect current form and the assessor’s opinion of what the horse is capable of producing that day. Going is ignored.
Obviously, horses with race conditions in their favour and solid recent form are likely to be favoured in the betting.Hi markdbh
Your approach is logical i.e firstly use objective criteria to determine horses that have a reasonable chance of winning; secondly, subjectively assign a probability to that chance and thirdly, compare the two.
Then place your bets on horses that appear to be value for money. If your judgement is good, you will make a profit. This is the essence of the systematic approach to betting. It’s also what 80 per cent of punters do every day in backing horses. Where they differ is how they manipulate the objective criteria(the ‘form’) to arrive at their choices and in their subjective judgement of odds based on intuition and experience.
You might give us some details of how you do the former.
In short, how do you interpret the form objectively?
We can argue about that. We cannot argue to any purpose about what the correct odds should be, since they cannot be known. We can only have an informed opinion.Based on past data, the SP market is very efficient and seems to reflect OVER A LONG PERIOD the probabilities of horses winning in relation to their odds. This seems like very bad news for systematic betting, but there are some people who make it pay. So, nil desperandum.
HI kiteserfedel,
So, what is the system?
If it’s just your selections, you should really post them on the lays and plays section. If it’s those of a newspaper tipster, why not just say?
We cannot make any positive contribution to your system without knowing what you are using as a selection method.
Best of luck.
billion,
By public support, I mean that the horse is not an outsider. To expand a little, horses between 5/1 and 10/1 in average-sized fields will not be favourites, but will almost certainly have attracted a lot of bets. Horses outside of this range in average-sized fields will include those with only a very small probability of winning. These horses are usually very poor value at SP and are therefore not suitable for any type of systematic betting as a punter.
I should emphasise that it is only the ‘Treble Odds for a Winner’ bonus that makes the Lucky 15 worth considering. You only need a 5/1 winner to break even on the bet. Bookmakers do not like giving this concession, so you might have to shop around to get it.
No doubt that single bets are the best option, but If I was having a multiple bet, the Lucky 15 with treble bonus is the only one that would interest me.
billion
We all know by experience that multiple betting is only for entertainment and that you are going to lose in the long run. Somewhere there will be a few very lucky people who hit the jackpot as in a lottery.
Given that there is little hope of profit, it seems to me that you should try to maximise the entertainment aspect. This precludes backing short-priced favourites where returns are small but limit your losses.
I would suggest looking for selections in the 5/1 to 10/1 range, horses with some public support and a fair chance of winning. How to pick them?
To make life easy and save time, I suggest using published ratings such as Racing Post Ratings(RPR) as the sole criteria for deciding which horses to back.Having done that – you must decide how – my ideas would take too long to explain and are already in my earlier posts on other threads, I suggest backing the selections in Lucky 15s but only with firms who offer treble odds for one winner only.
The result should be some nice pay days and plenty of entertainment, but you will pay for it in the end.There are two things I never got to grips with on this thread.
First, the logistics of placing the bets in the required sequence. Some races would not be finished before the next leg started. This could easily happen when a 3 mile race is followed chronologically by a 6f sprint.
Second, why any bookmaker would refuse any bet on an unnamed fav.
That it has ended is no surprise, but all credit to our friend Seagull for keeping it going. It lasted much longer than I thought it would and that is hard to explain.
billion
I haven’t had a bet for a while, so I may be out of touch, but I believe that early prices where Best Odds are Guarantees are only available for selected races, not every race at every meeting. If you can get Best Odds Guaranteed for every race at any meeting, I’d better go and get my betting boots out of the cupboard.
billion
If you are able to get Best Odds Guaranteed, then that’s fine, but for most races where you will be betting on BFs, such an offer will not be available.
The evidence is strongly suggesting that BFs are not a profitable avenue for systematic betting over a long period. But keep plugging on…..these avenues won’t all turn out to be cul-de-sacs.
billion
Any particular reason why you favour early prices?
Most of my research over the last few years, certainly since the SP margins were tightened, suggests no advantage to these against SPs.
I would also look at striking your bets much closer to the off. Betfair SPs proved much better value than SPs last time I looked about 18 months ago.Hi billion
The fact that a horse is a BF last time out is a useful piece of information and is one that may carry some weight in devising a systematic betting approach.
I’ve never actually used it or tested it, but my gut feeling is that it will not work over a long period. The obvious objection to it is the fact the race where it was a BF might bear no relationship with the race in which you are backing the horse,
Nevertheless, it is an interesting idea. I’m sure someone with the stats could run the system with historical data. Perhaps Adrian Massey has the stats for BFs on his website. I’m sure someone here will know much more about this than I do.
mr forecast
The figure you are using is a useful one, but it won’t produce a profit over a long period I’m afraid. I’ve tested it in the past, about ten years ago, over a long period in the summer and it lost about 10% on level stakes on a large sample.I think that the loss will be greater at present due to the poorer margins for backers compared with ten years ago.
Apart from the fact your’e betting in nearly every race, the figure takes no account of today’s conditions(going, distance etc.) or how long ago that rating was achieved.
On a more positive note, it will give you some very good- priced winners and is suitable for those who want an interest and have no time to study form in detail. Also, selective use of the figure can certainly improve profitability. If you specify something like:
highest figure
has to be within last 60 days
distance within 1f
going similar
right hand or left hand track
odds no less than number of runners divided by 4(handicaps) or 5(non-handicaps)the qualifiers should push you very close to profit.
Ashyjames,
You have awoken me from my deep slumber. Your fledgling system looks interesting. Whether it wins or loses, eventually you will have to reveal your methods to gain any credibility on the forum. In the meantime, good luck with it.
The weight question is a bit of an old chestnut on the forum.
I reached the conclusion some time ago that weight slows a horse down but the reverse is not necessarily true i.e. removing weight does not necessarily speed horses up. I think both Mordin and Beyer would agree with that statement.
This causes a dilemma for private handicappers who use weight, time and distance conversions which are supposed to be constant across a broad range of abilities. I’m afraid there is no easy way around this dilemma. All you can do is make some allowance that penalises horses rising in the weights, bearing in mind they might be improving faster than the weight penalty. For horses going down the weights, be very sceptical about that horse’s abilty to run faster as a result of carrying less weight.
As a very crude measure, I tend to award up to 4 points on my ratings method for horses in the top 12lbs of the handicap. The top weight and those within a few pounds get the maximum of 4 and those on 9, 10, or 11 lbs below get 1 point. In effect, I readjust the handicap so that horses in the lower weight brackets are penalised.
Dave,
Your comments regarding Betfair SP are very relevant. I’ve found that using Betfair SP is the difference between winning and losing(using SP).
I haven’t quite given up, more busy with other projects. I just thought I couldn’t take my methods much further without using more of my precious time. I’m now a senior citizen and there are a lot of things I want to do while my brain is still functioning normally- if it still is!
I believe the basic method I have used which is ratings plus about 10 additional positive factors is logically sound, but it takes up a lot of time and just about breaks even at SP and makes small profits with Betfair SP. I don’t have the resources(or the time these days) to make it worthwhile even though it is(as you mention) an extremely absorbing hobby – well worth doing for anyone at a loose end or bored.
I have no doubt that I will be back on the forum with more of the RP ratings + method when time allows.
Hi Dave
Looks a decent return from a very small sample. If you could keep that going, it would be goodbye to wage slavery.
The first step is the crucial one. If you can beat the market prices consistently you can win using just about any method. Unfortunately, arriving at an algorithm to determine your prices has to be subjective and success at creating a successful model has perplexed the best mathematical and racing brains, not least yours and mine, for many a long year. I’ve just about given up on this quest, although a few embers are still flickering as the fire slowly dies.
If you could, by some miracle, produce a successful model, the best way to proceed is the way you suggest either as a backer or layer. In the latter case, you would need to set up some kind of Betfair interactive account where you layed bets only at your designated odds adjusted to account for your profit margin, perhaps 5 to 10%.
Nice to see you are still active in the field.
