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my new selections`

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  • #12533
    mr forecast
    Member
    • Total Posts 227

    got me database now,cost a bit but very impressive

    been firing questions at it for days and finaly come up with a system which is proving the best strike rate over the years.

    im trying to keep it simple so you can just make the selection in seconds

    again i will do every race to show you the strike rates

    this ones very simple,the horse with the fastest time last time out

    i started today with this one and todays results

    newton 6 races 3 won 2 placed 1 lost

    leicester 7 races 4 won 3 placed

    ripon 6 races 3 won 1 place 2 lost

    #246728
    Dices
    Member
    • Total Posts 12

    [quote="mr forecast"

    this ones very simple,the horse with the fastest time last time out

    How do you find the "fastest" LTO since there are different distances , going, class etc ?
    How do you make these times "comparable" ?

    #246733
    mr forecast
    Member
    • Total Posts 227

    ADJ
    TS RPR HORSE/WGT LAST 6 RATINGS BEST TOPSPEED
    LAST YR GOING DIST COURSE

    122 126 Dandy Man 8-9 113 109 69 105 122 113 122 141 141 —
    119 124 Angus Newz 8-4 119 100 84 84 71 104 119 122 122 103
    111 115 Canadian Danehill 8-12 91 103 111 106 77 82 111 115 115 92
    108 106 Brenin Taran 8-11 108 75 72 88 107 53 108 108 108 —
    95 127 Peace Offering 8-9 102 52 78 95 94 76 107 134 134 —
    75 114 Zuzu 8-3 104 119 59 57 75 66 75 119 66 —

    go to racing post and open topspeed,then look at the last 6 ratings section,pick the highest number down the last column…………….simples

    dandy man is the fastest lto in this race

    i do use class in my other systems but with this one its just the lto figure only,

    it may mount to nothing but the past stats seem ok so ill give it a go

    this only requires one bet per race,if there is more than one figure the same then leave and move on
    i would like to write them all down for you but just too busy

    #246736
    mr forecast
    Member
    • Total Posts 227

    new selection system

    newton 6 horses 3 won 2 placed 1 lost

    leicester 7 horses 4 won 3 placed

    ripon 6 horses 3 won 1 place 2 lost

    old top two speedster system results

    leicester 14 horses 4 won 6 placed 1 forecast 1 reverse forecast

    newton 12 horses 4 won 3 placed 2 reverse forecasts

    ripon 12 horses 1 won 3 placed no forecasts

    as you can see not much difference apart from new system uses 1 horse per race and the old one used two

    #246747
    Dices
    Member
    • Total Posts 12

    Thanks mr forecst

    #246876
    mr forecast
    Member
    • Total Posts 227

    2/sept

    results

    lingfield

    1 speed figure(top lto)
    lingfield 1 placed 6 horses 1 non bet
    hereford 1 won 2 placed 7 horses 1 non bet
    brighton 3 won 1 placed 5 horses 1 non bet
    kempton 2 won 2 placed 8 horses

    top 2 speed rated
    lingfield 1 won 6 placed 14 horses
    hereford 3 won 5 placed 16 horses
    brighton 4 won 1 placed 12 horses
    kempton 1 won 1 placed 16 horses

    again i am finding that certian tracks out perform others
    with out my data base its impossible for anyone to know this as i have all the stats for these systems

    today epsom has the lowest win rate but the highest place rate the place rate is 56%

    all the other tracks are equal in both win and place which is 40%

    going back to jan 09

    #246877
    mr forecast
    Member
    • Total Posts 227

    i am running a business now so times no longer on my side, i will try to keep up but proving impossible as my laser engraving and cutting business has taken off quite quickly and is in much demand

    #246880
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    mr forecast

    The figure you are using is a useful one, but it won’t produce a profit over a long period I’m afraid. I’ve tested it in the past, about ten years ago, over a long period in the summer and it lost about 10% on level stakes on a large sample.I think that the loss will be greater at present due to the poorer margins for backers compared with ten years ago.

    Apart from the fact your’e betting in nearly every race, the figure takes no account of today’s conditions(going, distance etc.) or how long ago that rating was achieved.

    On a more positive note, it will give you some very good- priced winners and is suitable for those who want an interest and have no time to study form in detail. Also, selective use of the figure can certainly improve profitability. If you specify something like:

    highest figure
    has to be within last 60 days
    distance within 1f
    going similar
    right hand or left hand track
    odds no less than number of runners divided by 4(handicaps) or 5(non-handicaps)

    the qualifiers should push you very close to profit.

    #246888
    mr forecast
    Member
    • Total Posts 227

    my data base does have the going (ground) and i do use this,so far i am in profit

    when i done the forecast the top two in every race it produced 500 points in its first month and is still showing a good profit to date

    i now have my own speed figures which do not reflect the speed figures that are shown on racing post so i admit i have a massive advantage than most

    i sit here and will trade out if not happy or just trade on the horse which gives me a free bet..theres so much more to this but all i hope is that i am pointing people in the right direction…………….

    i dont bet on every race just show the results for every race……i know what tracks to bet on and which ones to avoid(or lay)……which again is showing excellent profits

    i do admit that if you bet on every race of every track then you would see massive losses a certian tracks and massive profits on others which when evened out doesnt mount to much

    my database is soley ment for speed and fractional times,but it does show jockey and trainer stats as well as the going,the left and right,the weight and all dates

    again all i hope is that i am pointing people in the right direction so they can see that by using speed figures is a very powerfull tool if understood and used correctly, add fractional times to a speed figure and you will not believe the strike rates produced

    we are a long way behind with these figures but they are catching up and i have seen my speed horses keep dropping in price to well below evens

    we are now in autumn were pace and speed figures is the key you will find that most front runners will win over the next few months on races below 1 mil 3 f………….watch the races and the horse which leads after 2f will produce the best strike rates…………it changes throught out the year depending on flat ,jump ect

    i urge all of you to make your own databases and produce your own angle of expertise

    ps..the going speed figure does not explain what track it was achieved….the course figure does not tell you the going……the top speed figure could be 2yrs old….this is why more investigating will be needed

    #246960
    KevinTHFC
    Participant
    • Total Posts 43

    got me database now,cost a bit but very impressive

    Hi Mate, which database are you using?

    Kevin

    #246996
    mr forecast
    Member
    • Total Posts 227

    hello stranger were you been kevin,hope your still on racing trends

    i had to use proform racing as to say its all beyond me is an understatement

    10 years data for 40 quid then the data base costs but me mates put it all in something sql….csf files or something like that

    plus my office spread sheets which i built with the figures
    nicked bits from here and there,you know how it is

    #247001
    KevinTHFC
    Participant
    • Total Posts 43

    The highlighted pace horses have been going well recently.

    Are you going to subscribe to keep the database upto date or were you just interested in the historical data?

    All the Best

    Kevin

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