September 27, 2009 at 14:44 #12742
It is the BIG question "How to find selections"
If any of us know the answer I guess we would be sitting on a hot sunny beach somewhere.
I have always found the allure of doubles, trebles etc. has drawn me in with the dream of small stakes and descent winnings but have never managed to succeed as I hoped.
My neighbour claims to do very well and suggests the only way to get a pofit with this style of betting is with short priced selections, he only ever considers favourites.
We have here a forum thread for each way doubles – 2nd favs.
I heard a Sporting Life radio a presenter claims among his selections he always picks one at longer prices to make it worthwhile as he said there is always a shortie that lets you down.
My question is can anyone suggest a selection method for these types of bets because I am damed if I know of one that works.
It has been said many times how much the bookies love punters who play the multiples because they are losers bets, I fully accept this but we all have our dreams otherwise nobody would play the lottery and secondly it is an inexpensive way to enjoy racing.
Billy's Outback ShackSeptember 27, 2009 at 20:56 #250434DolusParticipant
- Total Posts 313
With multiples while the odds of reward increase the chances of winning decrease in proportion. You need to pick winners with some success before having any hope of combining them in multiples.
There is some merit in using them as an insurance policy alongside your main bets for the odd day when you are lucky and all your selections romp home.
Bob and George go into two different betting shops and back the same two horses.
has a £10 double. The first horse wins at 9/1. Bob now has £100 going on two the next horse. The whole shops watches in anticipation as it gets beat by a head.
"Oh hard luck Bob, but you only lost a tenner."
on the other hand puts £10 to win on the first horse.
"Well done George, what you gonna do now?"
"I’m gonna put the whole £100 I get back on the next horse."
Again the shop watches in anticipation as it loses, then drifting away from George muttering to each other
"Bloody fool, fancy winning £100 and putting it all back on the next horse."
As someone once said ‘Doubles are for people who are not satisfied with backing just one loser.September 27, 2009 at 22:13 #250452
, sadly very, very true and I do agree with the sentiment you make and have no argument with it.
However let us remove the logic and get back to the reason why there are a lot of us who do not like to risk
and let us not forget that big money can mean different things to different betters.
I am coming from the
corner but nevertheless enjoy my punts and where I think we can both agree is winning is more enjoyable than losing.
Now my good neighbour who only bets favourites in his multiple he enjoys winning but every time I have punted the favs I have been turnes over, I know there is a 60% chance (roughly) my first selection will lose but I hang on to the fact that there is a 40% chance of it winning and the only way of which I am aware to back favourites and make a long term profit can only be via multiple bets.
And so I come back to my search of how to find favourites or short priced selections that win.
To start I guess I should increase my chances by only looking at non-handicap races but then there arn’t always enough to make a Trixie/Yankee etc. The non-handicap favs should only be in races of up to say 8 runners and so the choice is further reduced and so once again
I ask if anyone can suggest a simple little system which is suited to multiple betting.
Billy's Outback ShackSeptember 28, 2009 at 04:00 #250567
One decent little system uses the Daily Mail. You look at handicap races only and note any horse top-rated by formcast (denoted by a black spot) that is NOT in the first three of the betting forecast.
Then you do them in each-way doubles – simple as that. A good rule to cut down the selections is just to back horses that are also distance winners.September 28, 2009 at 11:32 #250580ArtemisParticipant
- Total Posts 1736
We all know by experience that multiple betting is only for entertainment and that you are going to lose in the long run. Somewhere there will be a few very lucky people who hit the jackpot as in a lottery.
Given that there is little hope of profit, it seems to me that you should try to maximise the entertainment aspect. This precludes backing short-priced favourites where returns are small but limit your losses.
I would suggest looking for selections in the 5/1 to 10/1 range, horses with some public support and a fair chance of winning. How to pick them?
To make life easy and save time, I suggest using published ratings such as Racing Post Ratings(RPR) as the sole criteria for deciding which horses to back.
Having done that – you must decide how – my ideas would take too long to explain and are already in my earlier posts on other threads, I suggest backing the selections in Lucky 15s but only with firms who offer treble odds for one winner only.
The result should be some nice pay days and plenty of entertainment, but you will pay for it in the end.September 28, 2009 at 15:51 #250627dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
Another simple system you could use would be to bet in one race every day and then run any returns over to the next .. using Betfair SP.
Pick the race with the shortest forecast favourite and bet the favourite to win. If it loses you do the same the next day, if it wins you roll the stake money plus any returns and back the shortest forecast favourite the next day. If it wins pick up your money, if it loses start again.
You could also back them to place and run the bet out to a treble or a fourfold, over three or four days.
You won’t win fortunes but you won’t lose much either.
Good luck whatever you do.September 28, 2009 at 18:47 #250659
I had a mate in the 80’s used to employ a conditional bet on Saturday’s, popular in the 1930’s. His main problem was having to use 3 bookie’s in order to get the bet on – which probably indicated he was on to a good thing. The reason being that you only want 50% of your selections to come in to make the bet. I must admit I never used it as it was too rich for my blood and I have never been keen on perms anyway . Hopefully you may find it of interest:
Make 4 selections – 2 short-priced certs and 2 form selections at better odds. Call them A, B, C, D.
£1 win A if lose £1 win B if lose £40 double CD
£1 win B if lose £1 win C if lose £40 double DA
£1 win C if lose £1 win D if lose £40 double AB
£1 win D if lose £1 win A if lose £40 double BC
£1 win A if lose £1 win C if lose £40 double BD
£1 win B if lose £1 win D if lose £40 double AC
Say A, B were the short-odds selections at about Even money and C,D were about 5/1. Work out the result if AB win, AC win, or CD winSeptember 29, 2009 at 01:28 #250741
Apologies – the system above should say horses that are NOT in the first three of the betting. A subtle but important difference!!September 30, 2009 at 13:24 #250908
Thanks for your replies and am sorry for the delay with my reply but my connection has been dire, don’t believe anything anyone tells you about "mobile dongles" my one is dreadfull.
Hey, I like the new look, very swish, modern and clean looking.
this one would have to be watered down for me, when I see £40 stakes I fear my pension would not last very long at all.
this one sounds a bit of fun and would be interesting just to see how long a winning run could go.
can you please explain what you mean by having some public support?
As I read the Daily "Depression" every day and am a big Formcast fan this one holds some interest and can see betting each way will not hurt the pocket too hard and will give it a go. Out of interest when you say not in the betting forecast are you talking of the Mail’s own or any specific forecast?
These systems fall within what I call "KISS" methods which although they may not be ideal for the true expert I have found there can be some logic to them.
I have been experimenting with an idea but it does require a little something to improve it so if anyone can make a suggestion please do.
I have used Formcast’s (black spot) top rated but think anything could be used such as RPR or even tipsters selections and rate just the one in the race: –
Add days since last time out to the number of declared runners and then add the position in the betting forecast.
Totals considered up to 25 only and then select the lowest 1 – 2 – 3 or as may as you like after running through all the cards.
The logic being it is either top rated or tipped etc. it should be fit and fresh and considered favourable by whoever drew up the forecast. 2nd LTO looks better or if carrying a weight penalty.
All suggestions welcome.
Billy's Outback ShackSeptember 30, 2009 at 15:15 #250919
Over 40 years ago I followed the Daily Mail tipsters on a one-a-day basis, which had its moments. It was a ‘running’ Yankee. You started the week with 16 points (£’s shillings whatever!) and you followed the man-in-form from Robin Goodfellow, Gimcrack and Formcast losing bets going 8pts, 4pts, 2pts, 1pt friom day-to-day. On winning add the points to the remaining bank and divide in half for the next stake. It is necessary to note the tipsters selections from day-to-day to decide the man in form. Yesterday RG won with Pintura 13/8, G had a 2nd with Hurricane Thomas 5/2, F had a 2nd Ghost Dancer 8/13.
We will commence our 4 bet sequence today by following RG Nwc 2.40 Revue Princess stake 8 points.September 30, 2009 at 15:22 #250920
The system I suggested uses the betting forecast in the Mail itself. That is just for convenience, it may be better to use a live show.September 30, 2009 at 16:00 #250928
Once again thanks for the response, out of interest I did check out todays selections and as often happens the paper and reality don’t always agree and in the case of Boquito (7.20 Kempton) it was not practical to bet each way when only 7/4 was available and thus dropped from the system. Nevertheless I was still left with 5 selections and 10 ew doubles.
Your posting is also of very much interest and once again sounds like a bit of fun, although I am not quite clear as to the function, will you plese clarify if my understanding is correct.
The bank for the week is 16 (oh dear I remember shillings only too well plus "tanners and farthings etc.) and the bank is then divided for a daily punt as Say Monday 8, Tuesday 4, Wednesday 2 and Thursday 1.
Any winnings is added to a "pot" or whatever but if all four days are losing bets the max. loss is budgeted for at 16.
Then I guess a new sequence can restart on Friday and with some luck could be playing with bookies money, now there is a nice thought.
Some of the "oldies" can still be "goodies" despite the passing years and in fact if they are still around it can only be testiment to there durability and quality.
Thanks again Guys, I wonder if this will inspire some more "Golden Oldies" to be dredged up.
Billy's Outback ShackSeptember 30, 2009 at 18:23 #250948
Billion, your understanding of the bet is correct. Winnings are added to the pot and divided by 2 to identify the next stake. Due to Revue Princess winning at 3/1 the pot stands at 40pts so the bet on the RG selection tomorrow is 20 points.September 30, 2009 at 19:31 #250953
What a way to start, well done
, I shall be quick because my signal is getting very weak and may end up with me losing this post.
I did not know we had a winner so this is a big surprise.
Just to go over it once again. All winnings taken, the sequence ends and the pot is divided by two, we keep one half and start a fresh sequence with the new total which will pay for the next 4 days, in your case 20 then 10 then 5 and 5 again.
Hope I am right, well done again!
Billy's Outback ShackSeptember 30, 2009 at 19:37 #250954
you said we go again with Goodfellow tomorrow, because he is HOT!
What if any of the other tipsters also had a winner? Do you remain with Goodfellow or divide between any/all winning (HOT) tipsters?
Billy's Outback ShackSeptember 30, 2009 at 22:46 #250969
The coup is 4 bets on the same tipping expert win or lose, then begin another coup of 4 bets to 16 points on the tipster-in-form by checking the stats to date, currently all I have is:
Robin Goodfellow = L,W,W
Gimcrack = L,L,N/R
Formcast = L,L,LSeptember 30, 2009 at 23:10 #250974
Thanks again for your tolerance
, I think I am now getting it (I think!).
So, after the sequence of 4 we must then look back at the results of the others to find who is HOT.
HOT must therefore be determined by the one with the most winners but if there is a lean spell without a winner and sadly it does happen, do you wait for the next winner or take the one with the most "places"?
Billy's Outback Shack
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