- This topic has 31 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 16 years ago by
.
- Posts
Horse races cannot be predicted with 100% accuracy. But if you can identify horses which have a better chance of winning than their odds suggest then you can win over the long run. The odds are determined primarily not by the chance of winning but by how much money is wagered.
For example if a horse has about 8% of the total money staked on a race then it will have a price of about 10.1. So if it wins the 8% will be returned plus 10 times 8%. So a total of 88% or a 12% profit for the bookmaker. Each way betting and accumulators affect this of course but it is roughly correct.
So the key thing is not so much a system that will ‘pick’ the winner but one that will determine if the probability of winning is greater than the 1 in 11 needed to break even over time betting at 10.1
Does that make sense? So I think you need a 2 stage process. Stage 1 is to select likely winners. Stage 2 is to use the market and some rules to decide if it is running at good odds for you. Any system that does not allow for the market is likely I think to come undone. After all, simply betting on the favourite in races with less than say 10 runners might get you a 40% win rate. But with average prices around evens or 5.4 you will lose steadily.
This is my first post. i hope it makes sense and is interesting for people. If not please accept my apologies and I’ll try to improve
MarkWelcome Mark.
Two things could be debatable:
Profit means picking a horse that has better odds than its true chance as long as it wins, long term, at its odds chance. A 10/1 horse you think is a true 8/1 chance is a wasted bet if there are First and Second favourites at odds on and evens.
You mentioned "system". Do you mean "method" as a system has a prescribed recipe for selecting a horse and that is backed whether good or bad value? You need a method approach so that you can compare one horse against another in the race to do what you describe in your post.
A 10/1 horse you think is a true 8/1 chance is a wasted bet if there are First and Second favourites at odds on and evens
I don’t get what you mean here Robert.
Thank you for the replies which are very good. I am a bit pushed for time right now but wanted to at least acknowledge. Let me answer tomorrow please? i hope this can be the start of a valuable debate which is helpful to everyone.
Cheers
MarkA 10/1 horse you think is a true 8/1 chance is a wasted bet if there are First and Second favourites at odds on and evens
I don’t get what you mean here Robert.
My example was too extreme for the favourites. Lets call them evens and 2/1
Basically, your true 8/1 horse has an 11% chance, long term, of winning. The favourites combined have 73% chance of winning. It is most unlikely you will collect on the 10/1 bet in that particular race. One favourite may run badly on the day, but not both. People confuse the long term chances of prices with the actual chances of collecting in a particular race.If I understand correctly you are saying that a good value horse at 10.1 is still likely to lose. Agreed but over time such horses will give a positive return. It assumes that you can really work out the probabilities of course, which is unlikely. Having said that I an sure it is possible to spot horses that the market has got wrong. This is the opportunity to win.
i agree that any system that selects horses and then expects you to blindly bet on them is most probably not going to work. I want to use the market to then further select from the system to get good value.
thanksMark
If I understand correctly you are saying that a good value horse at 10.1 is still likely to lose. Agreed but over time such horses will give a positive return. It assumes that you can really work out the probabilities of course, which is unlikely. Having said that I an sure it is possible to spot horses that the market has got wrong. This is the opportunity to win.
i agree that any system that selects horses and then expects you to blindly bet on them is most probably not going to work. I want to use the market to then further select from the system to get good value.
thanksMark
"but over time such horses will give a positive return"
That is a statistical fallacy, even if horse race outcomes were like throwing a dice. Each race is unique and the fair odds in-running and post race would be quite different from the estimated fair odds pre-race. That does not happen with dice etc.
"to then further select from the system to get good value"
The paradox here is that the system bets you think have absolutely no chance or are too short are the ones that win and make the original system profitable.
If you have the ability, knowledge and time to spot good value correctly then why are you using a system in the first place?
Cant help feeling we are arguing at cross purposes here
All I am really saying is that it is more important to pick horses which have a positive expectation value of return than to pick the most likely winners. We all know that blindly following favourites will lose.So my initial question stands I think. Just wanted to get some views. Thanks for all the replys.
MarkWell my method / system has worked well this week. Some longish priced winners. 12.1 24.1 12.1. So I’m happy. No doubt a long losing sequence is in the offing, but overall i believe it is logical and works.
MarkHi markdbh
Your approach is logical i.e firstly use objective criteria to determine horses that have a reasonable chance of winning; secondly, subjectively assign a probability to that chance and thirdly, compare the two.
Then place your bets on horses that appear to be value for money. If your judgement is good, you will make a profit. This is the essence of the systematic approach to betting. It’s also what 80 per cent of punters do every day in backing horses. Where they differ is how they manipulate the objective criteria(the ‘form’) to arrive at their choices and in their subjective judgement of odds based on intuition and experience.
You might give us some details of how you do the former.
In short, how do you interpret the form objectively?
We can argue about that. We cannot argue to any purpose about what the correct odds should be, since they cannot be known. We can only have an informed opinion.Based on past data, the SP market is very efficient and seems to reflect OVER A LONG PERIOD the probabilities of horses winning in relation to their odds. This seems like very bad news for systematic betting, but there are some people who make it pay. So, nil desperandum.
Outsiders/longshots are not my style. That said I was curious enough to read this thread and then take the idea on, perhaps one step further without having a clue of how to find a winner at 10/1+.
And so I checked RPR for top rated horses forecast at 5/1+ maybe thinking they could be e/w selections and then this morning again checked to see how they were priced on Odds Checker ending with a list of 5.
Muss.
2.50 BELEM RANGER @ 14/1 WON 20/1
3.50 Caravel @ 15/2 WON 7/1
Leic.
210 Blue Dark @15/2 LOST
310Black Exit @9/1 LOST
Ling.
3.00 Two Oclock John @11/2 WON 7/1Okay this was a bit of fun but I would be ever so pleased if I could find selections of this calibre every day.
Sadly I did not back any of the above!
Billy's Outback Shack
Billion you have mail.
Personally I have never been successful just backing favourites, or just backing outsiders.
Backing outsiders is a lot more fun as the prices are so big I can back to really small stakes because the potential profit is huge and also cover more races and more selections in each race.
I’ve always found I have most success when covering the whole spectrum of prices and just backing one horse in each race and putting 1% of the bank on each selection. It does not hurt when one bet loses and I need 100 on the trot to wipe me out. I also prefer volume betting, having one selection in nearly every race, which means I go in and come out of long losing runs pretty quick.
A one a day best bet punter on a losing run of 20 hasn’t had a winner for three weeks. I can have a run like that and come out of it in one afternoon.
About 90% of my selections tend to be at the front of the market as I would expect, with the other 10% being in the mid price range with odd big outsider thrown in. It ticks over most days but when an outsider goes in it’s a bonus pay day.
My own experience suggests that if want to stick to a price band the horses in the forgotten zone seem a good option. These are horses at about 5/1 to 10/1 depending on the field size. It can be out to 16/1 in large fields. These are the horses overlooked by the betting public for some reason but have some chance which is why the bookies have not got them as rank outsiders. Still have to find the right ones though.
This all seems to go against conventional thinking when it comes to betting.
Hi
DOLUS
,
You bring me back to my mantra "What ever floats your boat"
I believe in this game there are not any specifics and it should be down to the individual to proceed along which ever route he chooses.
Advice can be offered but does not have to be taken.
That said it is a fool who does not listen.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion
You have Mail
(Maybe I should have said I sent you PM)
.
I think a punter should listen to all advice, read all the books, join all the forums,
THEN
have a think about it and make his own mind up. I am convinced that a lot of things written about and passed down have come misconstrued and corrupted from their original intention or meaning.
Isn’t there a saying that you should only give advice when it’s asked for other wise you risk offending the other person.
To reiterate something you said somewhere along the line
‘Above all it should be fun’.
ok I’m back:). Last week saw a loss of ten units – boo
But the previous week saw a total gain of 34 units.
So this week will be interesting!
Good luck everyone.So after no bets on Monday the week got off to a decent start with 2 losers and 5.1 winner at Southwell.
Got a 3rd at 16.1 but i don’t do e/w. Perhaps I should?
Mark
Welcome Mark.
Two things could be debatable:
Profit means picking a horse that has better odds than its true chance as long as it wins, long term, at its odds chance. A 10/1 horse you think is a true 8/1 chance is a wasted bet if there are First and Second favourites at odds on and evens.
You mentioned "system". Do you mean "method" as a system has a prescribed recipe for selecting a horse and that is backed whether good or bad value? You need a method approach so that you can compare one horse against another in the race to do what you describe in your post.
Sounds like you’re too scared to take a chance with the 10/1 that should be an 8/1.The always going to be those lower in price and probably just so but we don’t know the result of a race before hand.
Let me give you an example:
1989 Champion Hurdle, I fancied Beech Road at 50/1 because he was regularly beating one of the fancied horses (not the fav who was odds on).
By your logic I should have gone with the odds on fav rather than Beech Road, who won that year, the fav was unplaced.Yes backing the 10/1 you could lose, but you’ll certainly lose in the long run backing favourites.
All I am really saying is that it is more important to pick horses which have a positive expectation value of return than to pick the most likely winners. We all know that blindly following favourites will lose.
Sounds like you’re too scared to take a chance with the 10/1 that should be an 8/1.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.