The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

BF’s

Home Forums Tipping and Research Systems BF’s

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 18 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #12685
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4378

    No not “Bloody Fool” but of course BEATEN FAVOURITES.

    First of all there must be something about the horse to have been a favourite in the first place, the question remains, “Why was it beaten?” there could be a myriad of reasons but at this stage maybe it matters not.

    When running again I would expect it to be better value (or a bigger price).

    Perhaps I have stumbled upon a system which is too easy to be any good but over ths previous 3 days has found 15 selections and 4 winners making a healthy 13 point profit, not I hasten to add at starting prices but at early prices available.

    For this posting I am prepared to put myself on the line and declare the 3 for tomorrow (Sunday): –

    Hamilton 5.10 Future Gem

    Uttoxeter 2.50 Copper Sound

    Ballinrobe 2.45 Dactik

    I hasten to add no previous selection has included either Jumps or Irish racing.

    My point in question is does anyone have any experience of a system built around BF’s and has it been of value and enjoyed longevity?

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #249442
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Hi billion

    The fact that a horse is a BF last time out is a useful piece of information and is one that may carry some weight in devising a systematic betting approach.

    I’ve never actually used it or tested it, but my gut feeling is that it will not work over a long period. The obvious objection to it is the fact the race where it was a BF might bear no relationship with the race in which you are backing the horse,

    Nevertheless, it is an interesting idea. I’m sure someone with the stats could run the system with historical data. Perhaps Adrian Massey has the stats for BFs on his website. I’m sure someone here will know much more about this than I do.

    #249445
    Dolus
    Participant
    • Total Posts 313

    From HorseRaceBase.

    Favourite, Joint Fav or Co Fav last race
    Position finished last race, anywhere but first
    2003 – 2009
    Bets……….Wins……..WinStrike….SP_PL
    54046……..8702 ……..16.10%……-10089.09

    #249477
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4378

    G’day Guys, thanks for your interest.

    Let me start by saying I always search out systems with two main objects.
    1) Its is simple to understand and operate
    2) It must cross over from flat racing to the jumps without any rule alteration.

    Yes Artimis I agree any current race can have no bearing whatsoever to the previous when our horse was "THE" favourite.However despite what others may think I have the utmost respect for the trainers and am willing to take the leap of faith which is required if building a system around a BF and his judgement. Many things can and do go wrong including errors made by the trainer but nothing can detract from the fact that the horse was thought good enough to win the race but did not. I ask, does that make the horse a bad one? Was it stable money? If so perhaps there are even more reasons to get it back, or was it public opinion/money?

    I think there are many reasons to consider BF as a huge starting point to build a system.

    Although the figures promoted by Dolus carry enough weight to forget the whole idea and go back to the drawing board I trust those figures are for every BF which has ever run in a race without any filtration so on closer examination they are not as bad as first thought, roughly one in six finds a winner which is not a strike rate to be sneared at and can only be improved with a little tinkering.

    So it comes down to a filter or two because there are far too many runners for me to cope with anyway.

    I don’t know if you agree with me but the more filters added only brings the prices down and then makes the system much about the same as hundreds of other selection methods and detracts from any edge you may have and all that you end up with is perhaps just another failed approach.

    I have chosen just one filter which in time may well get changed but I doubt if it will get added to and so the possibilities are endless. Massey’s ratings has been mentioned so why not look for any top rated or second or even top three rated which is a BF, it sounds as good as any.

    Another suggestion could be to start with the Naps Table and working downwards (or even upwards) making your selection the first one you come to which carries the BF tag.

    My selections today ALL lost (although two were placed) but the early prices when I checked were 7/2, 6/1 & 8/1, if but’s and maybe’s but the prices indicate I could have an edge and that is what I think is needed when seaking out a new system.

    Sadly, so far, nobody has come forward with any experience of a system with BF as its main ingredient but I will remain pleased to hear of any such working method.

    It would be interesting to read any other ideas which can be used as a single filter, all of which can be experimented with such as top jockey’s or best track trainer’s there must be a myriad of ideas that can be brought to the table, it only takes one.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #249487
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Hi Billion

    Though I’d never bet any horse blindly, there is an attractive kind of logic in betting beaten favourites, and I wish you well with your search.
    To extend that logic into something tenable; horses which ran poorly lto for no apparent reason are frequently underbet, so you might try backing only

    bf’s

    that performed (say) at least 10lb below any of their previous 3 outings?

    #249520
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    billion

    Any particular reason why you favour early prices?

    Most of my research over the last few years, certainly since the SP margins were tightened, suggests no advantage to these against SPs.
    I would also look at striking your bets much closer to the off. Betfair SPs proved much better value than SPs last time I looked about 18 months ago.

    #249525
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    billion,

    I did quite a large study of horses with relation to the starting price last time out using about 11 years worth of data.

    The main findings that I came up with were .. a horses price on it’s last run does have a positive factor in relation to it’s next run. Here are a few facts,

    A horse that went off at 2/1 last time out is more likely to win than a horse that went off at 20/1 last time out.

    A horse that goes off at a shorter price on it’s current run, than it’s last run, is more likely to win than a horse that goes off at a longer price. A horse that was 5/1 last time out, is more likely to win if it goes off at less than that price than if it is more than that price.

    A horse that goes off at a short price and then goes up in class, is less likely to win than a horse that stays in the same class, or goes down in class.

    In a straight regression analysis, SP last time out versus finishing position next run was positive.

    Simply backing beaten favourites is not the way to go, imo. You could factor this piece of data into a rating, if you had a mind to do so. But bear in mind that there is no positive edge here.

    #249531
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4378

    Well, well, well, Guys, thanks for all the input and it will take a little time to digest the data from yourself Dave Jay.

    My comment regarding early prices comes from the fact that I like to make my bets and then get on with what remains to be done during my day. However with

    Best Odds Guaranteed

    it makes a big difference as far as I am concerned. Bookmakers and layers on the exchanges can and do make errors of judgement, a quick look at Odds Checker ensures I am able to take the best prices available and there are sometimes significant margins to exploit but if I have got it wrong and the price drifts I still do not lose out.

    Sometimes it is frustrating when the best available price is with an office not offering

    Best Odds

    and it is then down to chance or you pay the money and take the choice, as they say.

    The advice I keep hearing time and time again is if we are to win at this game ( and it is a very big IF) is that small margins can make a big difference over a period of time which bring me back to obtaining an edge and prices can be an edge.

    I am not a clever cloggs and far from being a Know it All but years of losing is a hard apprenticeship to serve but again throughout the journey we all pick up little bits of knowledge which help us fit them into our own style and in my case a little winning (when it comes along) enhances my hobby of small time punting.

    I can only find one BF within my filter but again at a nice early price of 11/2

    Hamilton 3.40 Shadowtime

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #249539
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    billion .. you are best with the betfair SP if your betting to smallish sums, you won’t go far wrong with that.

    #249555
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4378

    Thanks for your response again Dave Jay.

    Can you tell from past info how a BF performs in it;s next/current race should it be favourite again.

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #249571
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I can’t at the minute because my database is out of date, but I’m sure there’s a few on here that could help you out.

    #249641
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    billion

    If you are able to get Best Odds Guaranteed, then that’s fine, but for most races where you will be betting on BFs, such an offer will not be available.

    The evidence is strongly suggesting that BFs are not a profitable avenue for systematic betting over a long period. But keep plugging on…..these avenues won’t all turn out to be cul-de-sacs.

    #249658
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4378

    G’day Artemis.

    I am a little confused by your posting which says Best Odds are not available on BF’s or perhaps I have not understood because if a bookmaker is making such an offer it must be to ALL horses in the race and so far I have not had a problem but then again at my small stakes I don’t anticipate any.

    I look forward to your clarification.

    I have my fingers crossed for today’s selection, Silly Gilly running in the 5.00 Beverley , nice early price 11/2, best odds guaranteed.(Tafool was also selected but is a non runner).

    Interest only: –

    Massey top 3 rated which are BF’s.

    Folkestone 3.50

    Aaman

    3rd in ratings
    Folkestone 4.20 Tafool 1st but a non runner

    Beverley 3.00

    Doorback

    3rd in ratings
    Beverley 4.30

    Amethyst Dawn

    1st in ratings
    Beverley 5.00

    Silly Gilly

    2nd in ratings

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #249790
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    billion

    I haven’t had a bet for a while, so I may be out of touch, but I believe that early prices where Best Odds are Guarantees are only available for selected races, not every race at every meeting. If you can get Best Odds Guaranteed for every race at any meeting, I’d better go and get my betting boots out of the cupboard.

    #249809
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4378

    G,day Artemis,

    Try: – Bet365, Paddy Power, Wm Hill, Stan James & Boyle’s

    I have found odd shops, Tote Sport was one where an office is floundering also enjoys Best Odds Guaranteed on ALL British and Irish races.

    Check them out!

    Whilst posting I had better put up todays BF’s although it feels as if I cannot buy a winner, I think as we are coming to the end of the Flat season and not yet crossed over to the Jumps it is a "graveyard" period where if a system is going to fail it is during such a tansitional period.

    Goodwood 3.10 Solemn
    Kempton 7.20 Trueblue Wizard
    Redcar 1.45 Cash Queen Anna
    *Perth 2.25 Bathazar King
    *Perth 4.45 The Wicketkeeper

    *Both off the track so BF’s may not apply ??????

    Billy's Outback Shack

    #249810
    Dolus
    Participant
    • Total Posts 313

    Can you tell from past info how a BF performs in it;s next/current race should it be favourite again.

    From HorseRaceBase
    Favourite, joint fav or co fav last race
    Position finished last race, anywhere but first
    Clear favourite this race – (no joints or co favourites)j
    2003-2009
    Bets……….Wins……WinStrike….SP_PL
    11458 3936…….34.35%…….-785.73

    #249812
    billion
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4378

    Thanks Dolus, I don’t like the sound of that!

    Billy's Outback Shack

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 18 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.