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I am not sure if this thread is in the correct place but as it forms part of a system in current use this place won the day.
=========================================================At first I thought I was careless, then I thought it was perhaps an age thing (senior moments are becoming more and more regular) but then again I was not so sure.
Anyway I thought I would ask and see if the mystery is easily solved.
Do the Racing Post Ratings change after they have been posted?
I am a great one for getting things done early (or they may not get done at all) and since returning to the Post since its web site re-vamp (I still prefer the old one) I have been using the RPR as a guide in conjuction with other factors and always check these the day before or should I say the evening before and on the odd occasion I would re-check and noticed what I thought to be errors.
However it is starting to become more regular, the re-checking that is, and I am sure some of the ratings change from evening to morning.
I can only think this may possibly be due to changes in the going or can anyone offer a more informative answer.
Billy's Outback Shack
Billon, I asked this question on the main board about six months ago. I’ll try and find the thread. However, in short the ratings up to 7pm (but it could be later)the day before are taken straight form the RP Database. After this time they may be subject to adjustments by the spotlight writers.
Thanks
POMPETE
, I am gobsmacked!
I just don’t know what to say or where this leaves me.
I do know "Massey" adjusts if the going changes and thought it may be the case here but RP’s indication that they are made up amazes me.
This is horse racing, just when you think, maybe just maybe you are working things out something comes up and "bites your bum".
Billy's Outback Shack
Billion if you are gobsmacked I’m double gobsmacked
I always thought that the RPR ratings were the best rating achieved this season/over a certain time frame/number of past outings. it all seemed a bit ad hoc and I never figured out exactly how it worked. DOH!
If what is said on the other thread is even partly true then the ratings are not of any benefit to the punter/reader but are constructed for the benefit of the compiler to try and keep his strike rate up, (and presumably his job).
Gobsmacked or not
DOLUS
they must have some value and perhaps they key to unlocking their value is learning how to use them.
In my own case it is by cross refence with other ratings, if they agree I continue, if not the prospect is discarded.
It was after reading within this forum that if the RPR and favouritism (not sue if forecast or actual) do come together the success percentage was very high. Just this small nugget has helped me and simply by introducing RPR as a small tweaking measure things have improved.
However now I find myself checking the RPR twice, first time during the evening as part of the selection process but then again on the day of the race before making my bet but I guess only time will tell if any changes should or will have to be made because of the variation in the ratings.
Billy's Outback Shack
FURTHER CLARIFICATION
Should anyone wish to further RPR + Favouritism albeit F’cast or Sp the Massey posting can be found: –
Horse Racing System Ideas – RPR selections – Lesleyone – First posting Jan. 22
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion
Here is the link to the Adrian Massey thread you mentioned:-
http://www.adrianmassey.com/bb/viewtopic.php?t=9072I did say ‘IF’ what was posted on the other thread had any truth in it, but that is a big IF as too often people will post an opinion on how things are without any proof.
From what I have read from many sources is that ratings are a measure on how a horse could perform and are also known as ability ratings. They are what a horse is capable of achieving if running to its best.
Nowhere have I read that these ratings or any based on handicapping take into consideration the conditions on the day, jockey or trainer or anything else. They are just based on the horses ability as are the official ratings.
It is up to the punter to factor in current form, conditions and anything else he feels is relevant.
I find it hard to believe that the RPR handicappers would massage the ratings to increase their strike rate. As ability ratings it does not matter how often the top rated win. They are just part of the picture. It would seem more pertinent to improve or change what the ratings mean to increase strike rate.
I seem to remember in the early days of the RP when they were called Postmark, they used to print an explanation of the Postmark ratings and stated that the rating represented how the horse was expected to perform today. If this still holds true then this would explain why the ratings change overnight as new information is factored in.
It would be interesting to compare the RPR ratings from the night before, the next day and the ones in the printed version of the RP as these cannot change once the paper has been put to bed.
Here is a link that gives an idea how the RPR’s work:-
http://www.drf.com/products/rpr/rpr.html
It’s strange having to go across the pond to find an explanation so it has an American slant to it.A fantastic posting
DOLUS
, thank you.
The link provides an in depth explaination of RPR, which for myself who takes the simplest route available, because I have difficulty understanding how to grasp the technicalities of this game. Nevertheless for those who do not wish to accept RPR on face value it is a worthy article.
With regard to Lesleyone’s posting on Massey I do accept your point and with respect to Lesleyone unless the point is proven it is better to take the cynical view. However it looks to have a certain logic that top rated RPR when
"favourite"
should perform better than when not
"favourite"
.
With any system under test the more positives there are should indicate a greater winning chance but the downside being the greater the anticipation will be coupled with lower prices. It is these lower prices which make recouping losses that much harder and brings to the fore why short prices are so out of favour with the many.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion
I thought I better have a look at that Adrian Massey thread to see what it is all about.
Apart from the assertion that the RPR top rated when favourite has a 55% strike rate (unproven), the rest of the postings go off at a tangent and have nothing to do with what the OP wanted to know or discuss.
As a thought and a possible alternative to the RPR’s changing overnight, and assuming you are only looking at the horses with the best RPR. What would happen if you were to use the horse that RPR has selected as his tip. This is one of the top rated in the race and I would assume this would not change from the night before, (famous last words). It is possible with more than one top rated that one could go off favourite and not be the one tipped by RPR.
‘morning
DOLUS
When quoting Lesleyone’s (unproven) remark it was simply an indicator to me that the Favourites win percentage can/could be improved and perhaps worth watching.
When joint top I will always ignore anyway.
Now Massey has done the same thing!!
Last evening I noticed SOLWAY ALLY 4.25 Ayr was clear top rated by +69 and this morning it has become 2nd rated
What is going on?
Billy's Outback Shack
It’s been some time since I looked at the Racing Post, but I’m assuming they haven’t changed their handicapping/ratings systems and methods since I last looked.
The RP ratings as published on race day are definitely not affected by the forecast SP. In fact the reverse is true.
The master rating is adjusted to reflect weight carried, weight for age, race conditions etc and more importantly, to reflect current form and the assessor’s opinion of what the horse is capable of producing that day. Going is ignored.
Obviously, horses with race conditions in their favour and solid recent form are likely to be favoured in the betting.
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