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<br>Looks like hard work on the ground so far today, so I’ve backed Direct Access who’s a big strong sort that should handle the conditions and only has 10-6 to carry.
AP
<br>Dave’s approach simply confirms that there are as many different ways of making the game pay as there are profitable punters.
His principle objective is to avoid long confidence damaging losing runs, hence his choice to back more than one per race and to bet a high percentage of races, so that totally blank days are very rare.
AP
<br>Er, Chepstow doesn’t have an uphill finish, more like the opposite, although there is a rise that ends about three furlongs out.
AP
<br>Carvills,
Then again, that Henry Rix was a wizard on the left wing when he wasn’t tipping winners!
I’d support what Steve says about using the same skills in other fields and it’s probably significant that many of the full time punters I’ve met in the last fifteen years have had a background in IT, accountancy etc, or have run their own business.
AP<br>
<br>Thank you Clive – personally I feel they are now out of date as the combination of the rise of the Internet, exchanges and the big differences in the racing program have certainly altered my approach.
<br>To FSL, I’d say that the best rules are the ones you’re comfortable with and that means developing your own ideas. It means working out what type of bet suits you best, what areas you want to specialise in and how you choose to stake your bets.
Treat it like a business – have a plan, objectives, a budget and take the long term view. What happens on any one day, week or month shouldn’t alter your methods, so long as the accounts look OK at the annual review.
Lastly, be sure it’s what you really want to do – glamorous it ain’t!
AP<br>
<br>I must be missing something, but $16M for a dirt bred horse that has shown he can run fast on that surface and they are sending him to Biancone.
Doesn’t he train in California and aren’t they replacing their dirt tracks with Polytrack?
And with the same thing happening in Kentucky, are sires with a dirt track background going to command big fees in the years ahead?
AP<br>
<br>A furlong in 9.8 seconds!
Does anybody actually believe any thoroughred could do that, let alone an immature 2-y-old?
AP
<br>Gus,
Market forces at work – Cheltenham may have sold all the tickets for the first three days last year, but the usual proportion of those sales were to touts, who got stuck with them when nobody turned up to buy them.
That’s the explanation for the feeling expressed by many that did go for the comfort of the first three days compared with past years – 55,000 tickets sold, but nothing like that many people actually inside the racecourse.
This year the touts haven’t been buying. Good to see basic economic theory of supply and demand working in practice. In this case Cheltenham supplied six races instead of seven but still increased the price – resulting in reduced demand from the public.
AP
<br>Aston,
No, I opted out this year as I felt I’d run out of useful things to say about trends or the Festival.
I’ll still be a buyer though – it isn’t just the positive trends that can be helpful, but the negatives as well.
Btw, in my piece in the book last year I expressed a negative view of the four day festival. Well in the event I found I enjoyed it just as much, although nothing is ever going to convert me into a fan of watching horses do three laps of a garden centre and calling it a cross country race.
AP
<br>The weights for the Hennessey are up on the Weatherbys website and IG has been given a chase mark of 150, which puts him on 10st 13lbs.
Top weight is Ollie Magern on 11st 12lbs.
AP
I may well be totally wrong about the handicap mark – I hadn’t seen the Phil Smith quote. But for comparison, the last two winners of the Stayers Hurdle to obtain a chase mark were given 159 (Bacchanal) and 157 (Cyborgo).
Watching him today reminded me of Carvills Hill and apart from the deja vu aspect of watching an even money favourite taken on for the lead, IG seems to have a similar stiff backed jumping style that finds the Cheltenham open ditches a particular problem.
Like Carvills Hills, he can maintain a fantastic gallop, but also like Carvills Hill, at his best when out on his own and able to measure the fences. And like CH, that suggests the Welsh National, with the long run to the first fence, might suit him better than Newbury.
Whatever his eventual target, he’s already provided a fascinating taster to the NH season and provoked more debate on here than most classic winners!
BTW, entries for the Hennessey closed today, weights will be based on form up to and including Nov 5th and will presumably be published around Nov 9th.
AP<br>
(Edited by apracing at 7:41 pm on Oct. 26, 2005)
Quote: from arkle66 on 5:26 pm on Oct. 26, 2005
Newbury for the Hennesey has to be favourite if given a handicap mark of less than 150?
<br>As he’s beaten a 130 rated chaser by a wide margin and has a rating of 172 over hurdles, there is no chance of him getting a mark under 150. I reckon something closer to 160 would be more likely and as the handicapper very rarely allows a difference of more than a stone between the chase and hurdle ratings initially, perhaps 158 would be a fair bet.
AP
<br>Two yearling colts were knocked down to Miss V Haigh at the Goffs Sales this week, priced at 26,000 and 27,000 euros.
There was also a piece in a gossip column somewhere earlier this month which claimed she was working behind the bar of a Doncaster hotel during the Leger meeting.
AP
<br>Interesting debate, just a pity about the example chosen.
CPGagie said earlier on this thread that he didn’t think Kyllachy could have run a Gp1 time in this race and I reckon he’s spot on.
But my view has nothing to do with the merits of speed figures over collateral form, or the possibility of placed horses being ‘dragged’ to a fast time.
No, the problem is that the actual race time EC is basing his arguments on was wrong. It’s shown in the official form book as 59.7 seconds. When I saw that I was immediately suspicious (5F races under 1 min at Newbury are as rare as truth in politics), and I checked the time off tape. Having hand timed the race six times, I made the time 60.7.
I raised this with Raceform and with Newbury and they admitted that the official electric timing had broken down for this race and they had used a hand recorded time. They wouldn’t say whose hand time it was!
In my view, that time was wrong and hence the speed figures were useless. Errors in the official times are not uncommon – when I was making speed figures for the AW on a regular basis, I would find one or two each week that looked odd and proved to be incorrect when checked by timing off the TV.
You can also regularly find differences between the times reported by Raceform in the official formbook and those given by Timeform in the Perspective. I believe that Timeform also check all times using video equipment.
AP
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Quote: from Glenn on 2:45 pm on Mar. 2, 2005[br]
– racing on the front pages for all the wrong reason in only the second month of regional racing.
I’m probably wasting my time, but whilst it’s strictly accurate to state that the race in question (I’m assuming you refer to Ballinger Ridge and Fallon) was run at a regional meeting, it was in fact an auction maiden that could have been run at any low level AW or turf flat meeting during the year.
Ballinger Ridge was rated 60 before that race, way too high to run in a banded race, and the eventual winner, Rye, was given a mark of 70 for her win.
AP<br>
<br>Seems to me that different standards are being applied to football and racing in this thread.
Fixing a match by involving all the players is clearly difficult, but so is fixing a horse race with a big field.
But surely the football equivalent of the single non trier is the player who dives in the penalty area, or who simulates injury in an attempt to get an opponent sent off.
Looked at in that light, football is totally corrupt and every single game is affected.
AP
