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what more can either of you say that hasn’t already been said?
Plenty.
Value Is EverythingBut of luck was not a factor and it was all down to analysis and probabilities then ginge and other stars on here would win the Scoop6 and be living in castles.
Truth is that it’s a very hard game aggravated by many factors.
My point about it is that the product that is offered by the bookmakers is not really as it seems.There is 0% chance me winning the Scoop 6 Prof, because I don’t do miracle bets.
One or two placepots a year with friends,
(yes Gord, that surprised you! I have "one or two" friends)! 
Other than that I keep to win and each way.Dead right Prof, the "product that is offered by the bookmakers is not really as it SEEMS". It may sometimes look as if it is impossible to show a profit. But in reality, there’s SEAMS of gold in them ther’ HILLS!
Value Is EverythingThe debate is rather like two bald men fighting over a comb. The Professor was trying to highlight the futility of betting in his opening post and I wholeheartedly agree with him. At least 95% of races are about connections disguising their horse’s ability until the day they will be allowed to show their true colours.So many races these days are stuffed with non-triers that any attempt at form study is a complete waste of time because it’s impossible to to make accurate comparisons with horses that are not running on their merits.
Anyone who wants to back something at massive odds today with a much better chance than its price indicates – could try looking at the 2:40 Ffos Las. All the runners bar three like to race prominently. Shaking Hands and Carruthers possibly need to lead, otherwise they tend to sulk. Two favs – Red Rocco, made all on his last two starts (wins) and Alfie Spinner also usually races front rank. Our Island ran his best races to date by racing at or near the pace and has downed tools sometimes when unable to do so. Cannington Brook has done both (held up and front-run), but ran so well racing prominently last time – that connections may want to run that way again (I’ve saved on him). Of course there will probably be a change of tactics by one or more of the above, but the fact there is so much pace in the race may well favour the known hold up horses. They are the three outsiders
Makethe Mostofnow
, Harouet and
Incentivise
. Former is not certain to get the trip but is lightly raced so may be able to improve if trip is not a problem. Middle named will stay, but ran poorly last time and stable is in such crap form I’ll leave him out of my bets. Latter, Incentivise, is a bit of a dog (inconsistent) but stays all day and (if they go an overly strong pace where the leaders don’t get home) could be the one staying on past tired horses.
By all this, I don’t mean that the two I’ve highlighted have anywhere near as good a chance as Red Rocco or Alfie Spinner, they are obviously (one) progressive (and the other) well handicapped are massive plus factors. But with the pace angle (for me) both Makethe Mostofnow and Incentivise look cracking bets at the prices, 14/1 and 40/1. Particularly the latter. You could alternatively wait and play in-running after a couple of furlongs if you prefer. Back the ones at the back.
Value Is EverythingThe debate is rather like two bald men fighting over a comb. The Professor was trying to highlight the futility of betting in his opening post and I wholeheartedly agree with him. At least 95% of races are about connections disguising their horse’s ability until the day they will be allowed to show their true colours.So many races these days are stuffed with non-triers that any attempt at form study is a complete waste of time because it’s impossible to to make accurate comparisons with horses that are not running on their merits.
That’s stupid!
It does NOT make sense.
Youstill
have not answered my question Woolfie!
If you are correct, then HOW come I (and many others) make a good profit through solely studying form?It is clearly NOT "futile" at all.
If "95% of races had connections disguising their horses ability", then nobody would be able to show a profit from studying form.You are portraying the "If I can’t do it – the game must be bent" syndrome.
If I do not understand brain surgery, then don’t let me in to the opporating theatre.
Value Is EverythingEven studying the form doesn’t always guarantee your horse will run well on the day, so much can happen to a horse on it’s way to the racecourse and from parade ring to post.
The only way I usually make a profit nowadays is when I am actually at the races and can see my choices and that’s mainly at my local course (45 miles away) Newmarket.
I rarely bet on the jumps although I love watching it, flat racing is my passion and if I had the money I would go racing every day of the season. When I go to Newmarket I do study the form very hard the night before and watch videos of my choices previous races and usually select 3 horses to look at in the paddock for each race, quite often I will end up backing all 3 or hopefully I can rule one out if it is not looking it’s best, that works for me. I take an amount of money that I am prepared to lose and never come out feeling that I have wasted my money, every time I go racing I learn something for next time.
Enjoy the sport for what it is, a game of chance, no room for negativity, get to know the horses you are going to back, don’t bet blind and look for your horses merits Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Cormack is right – will you two bore off please?
When you have a numpty like
Peruvian Chief
contributing,I use the word ‘contributing’ loosely mind as all you ever muster is a Sentance,it automatically throws negativeity out there for anyone else who feels like putting their own thoughts forward.A topic like this one certainly brings out those Horseracing cynics,I mean fans out of the woodwork who think that our sport is rife with corruption.The trouble with these sort is that they cant actually give up the game but do nothing positive to promote it either,they tell their mates how they were robbed of a winner who ‘Never tried a leg’,’Were running for the Book’,’Were out for a Pipeopener’, ‘Running down the Handicap’,all the phrases I have used myself over the years but the difference between myself and those constant cynics is I understand that the sport isn’t so much Corrupt but the rules in place are certainly ‘bendable’ and I accomodate that in my mindset.When I have an Ante-Post bet its generally on a recognised race,a race where the Prizemoney and prestige generally attracts the ‘trier’,I wouldn’t dream of trying to find a race on the sandpit for a 0-45 rated horse 6 months down the line because I know how the rules of racing allow these sort of horses to be placed…….How diplomatically put!by the way I enjoyed your post ‘Triptych’,Its always nice to see how other Racing fans treat our sport and also support it.
Agree with every word of the above post Gord.
We must stop doing that.
Value Is EverythingCormack is right – will you two bore off please?
When you have a numpty like
Peruvian Chief
contributing,I use the word ‘contributing’ loosely mind as all you ever muster is a Sentance,it automatically throws negativeity out there for anyone else who feels like putting their own thoughts forward.
I suppose you are right, we should be grateful (continuously) reading about how you "spotted first" such animals as Workforce, Sea the Stars etc.
Where as some people don’t have any opinions and just complain about everyone elses.
Value Is EverythingCormack is right – will you two bore off please?
When you have a numpty like
Peruvian Chief
contributing,I use the word ‘contributing’ loosely mind as all you ever muster is a Sentance,it automatically throws negativeity out there for anyone else who feels like putting their own thoughts forward.
I suppose you are right, we should be grateful (continuously) reading about how you "spotted first" such animals as Workforce, Sea the Stars etc.
You want to get your facts right PC, I never spotted
Sea the stars
at all,he was another ‘Frankel’, a horse I tried and failed to get beat by
Mastercraftsman
on several occassions!
Workforce
however was another truly legendary bit of foresight,didn’t I back him at 25/1 for the Derby and 42’s for The Arc?
I think this is where you and many others differ. For example – Workforce was hyped to the hills from Freemason Lodge to the coast – its only you who always goes on and on and "spotting" him. I dare say that when you backed him for the Derby he wasn’t far off jolly.
What we need is cynicism, complainers, disgruntled. Unhappy people wondering why the best horse in the race didn’t win.
Shocked backers, don’t just sit there wondering what happened, where did that winner came from. Stop betting, save your money, go to exotic places. Racing is not for you.
What we need is cynicism, complainers, disgruntled. Unhappy people wondering why the best horse in the race didn’t win.
Shocked backers, don’t just sit there wondering what happened, where did that winner came from. Stop betting, save your money, go to exotic places. Racing is not for you.
Do you expect the "best" horse to win every race Woolfie?
Value Is EverythingWhat we need is cynicism, complainers, disgruntled. Unhappy people wondering why the best horse in the race didn’t win.
Shocked backers, don’t just sit there wondering what happened, where did that winner came from. Stop betting, save your money, go to exotic places. Racing is not for you.
Do you expect the "best" horse to win every race Woolfie?
Don’t be silly Ginger, sometimes, the best three or four horses in a race will lose as you have probably experienced.
But of luck was not a factor and it was all down to analysis and probabilities then ginge and other stars on here would win the Scoop6 and be living in castles.
Truth is that it’s a very hard game aggravated by many factors.
My point about it is that the product that is offered by the bookmakers is not really as it seems.There is 0% chance me winning the Scoop 6 Prof, because I don’t do miracle bets.
But why is it a miracle bet if gambling on horses contains no miracles, merely mathematics and probabilities?
It is the mathematics involved that tells you it is a "miracle bet" Prof. "Miracle" as in it is extremely unlikely for a Scoop 6 bet to come up. It is racing’s Lottery.
With the Lottery itself (if I remember rightly) any bet is around a 13.984 million/1 shot, so if the rollover ever goes over 13.984 million pounds – then it will be mathematically a "value" bet. However it will still be a "miracle" if such a bet comes off for a small outlay.
Although the Scoop 6 is not so extravegant odds as the Lottery (especially if most favs come in) it still strikes me as a miracle if a specific punter (identified before the races take place) wins it with a small outlay.
Value Is Everything
(yes Gord, that surprised you! I have "one or two" friends)! 
Other than that I keep to win and each way.
It does NOT make sense.
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