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What I have said has everything to do with this thread.
TAPK came on here and denied mathematics and defied logic.
He then did his usual thing, bragging about massive priced winners. ie Making out that he does not need mathematics. Yet I am not allowed to point out why these winners are not enough and that he is cherry picking!
May be it is more to do with TAPK writing for you David? Can’t have his legendary status questioned can we?
Fine, I’ll "desist"!
Value Is EverythingMr P – shouldn’t you be obsessing on the clock or off trolling elsewhere. Your only contributions to this forum are negative and boring.
Fair enough, Corm, but this thread was started by a troll. You seem to positively encourage them to post these days?
Anyway, good luck to you and TRF. As our old friend Drone might say… ‘It’s only a forum’
I am not a troll. All I do is ask questions and think out loud.
What I have said has everything to do with this thread.
TAPK came on here and denied mathematics and defied logic.
He then did his usual thing, bragging about massive priced winners. ie Making out that he does not need mathematics. Yet I am not allowed to point out why these winners are not enough and that he is cherry picking!May be it is more to do with TAPK writing for you David? Can’t have his legendary status questioned can we?
Fine, I’ll "desist"!
I thought we were to "desist" Gord?
David does not want a debate.
In my opinion Gord, you should be allowed to (constructively) criticise the way I bet in this thread… Because I am the most well known gambler/investor using/proponent of "mathematics" on this forum. Where as I should be allowed to do the same with the way you bet… Because you (say you) don’t use "mathematics". Of course defending ourselves against each other’s opinion is all part of that discussion. Of course it is not about "budging" each other’s opinion, it is about explaining our opinions for others to judge.
I don’t see what either of us have said is "wrong" Gord (though I may not "like" some of it).
But I suppose if others only see our debate as "ego’s", fair enough.
Value Is EverythingUltimately, it is all about egos : please note the non use of the unnecessary apostrophe, Ginge.
But as you say, you are by definition a mumbers man – and a damn fine one at that.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Ultimately, it is all about egos :
No its all about Winning I’m afraid Dear boy and winners are few and far between in the Sport of Kings whether it be horses or humans.To be a winner at anything in life you need confidence to be a consistent winner you need a bit more than that,its not a gift,its not a talent,its bloody hard work,Studying,Watching,Listening and knowing your horses is purely fundamental,you need to take it to another level to seperate the Wheat from the Chaff and thats courage,Courage of your convictions,courage to say I know this horse will have his day even when its running poorly and sticking with it.So many give up on a horse because it runs one stinker and when it wins their frustration shows and their confidence diminishes,they fall by the wayside ultimately.Horseracing is not a sport for the Fainthearted and dissapointment lurks around every corner,Lady Luck is out there but she’s a typical female and will only accomodate you on her terms,I’ll take those terms as every little helps.Bad Luck is like the Grim reaper,he scythes his way through a ‘Lucky 31’ and makes you feel sick at times,he’s at his worst Ante-Post but its all part of the game.Few have stood the test of time,fewer with the above attributes,One is still here fighting like a Mcgregor,you guessed…………The Ginger One!
I thought we were to "desist" Gord?
David does not want a debate.
In my opinion Gord, you should be allowed to (constructively) criticise the way I bet in this thread… Because I am the most well known gambler/investor using/proponent of "mathematics" on this forum. Where as I should be allowed to do the same with the way you bet… Because you (say you) don’t use "mathematics". Of course defending ourselves against each other’s opinion is all part of that discussion. Of course it is not about "budging" each other’s opinion, it is about explaining our opinions for others to judge.
I don’t see what either of us have said is "wrong" Gord (though I may not "like" some of it).
But I suppose if others only see our debate as "ego’s", fair enough.
Perhaps it is more that we have heard it a zillion times Ginge.
Whilst I can understand people growing tired of the constant and repetitive arguing, I personally don’t have a problem with it as it makes me chuckle. Your two betting styles contrast as sharply as your personalities and you both know that neither is ever going to admit they are wrong. You will probably still be hammering into each other in your old age. I think you actually get off on it – like an old married couple who live for their daily rows. What a pair you two make!
As for the ego’s – well I am convinced that one day psychiatrists will talk of a Gord Complex rather than a Napolen one. Actually I am starting to wonder if Napolean did actually have a Gord Complex. You dear Ginge are a little less obvious but your absolute insistence on
always
having the last word in
every
debate you
ever
have tells me you are not a man who likes to admit being wrong. Call that what you will.
I love you both though!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
You dear Ginge are a little less obvious but your absolute insistence on
always
having the last word in
every
debate you
ever
have tells me you are not a man who likes to admit being wrong. Call that what you will.
How can I be wrong? This is simple 11 year old mathematics!
You’re confusing me with the other fella Joni.
Then again, if nobody else writes on this thread… it proves you right.
Value Is EverythingOK Joni, you win!
Ultimately, it is all about egos :
No its all about Winning I’m afraid Dear boy and winners are few and far between in the Sport of Kings whether it be horses or humans.To be a winner at anything in life you need confidence to be a consistent winner you need a bit more than that,its not a gift,its not a talent,its bloody hard work,Studying,Watching,Listening and knowing your horses is purely fundamental,you need to take it to another level to seperate the Wheat from the Chaff and thats courage,Courage of your convictions,courage to say I know this horse will have his day even when its running poorly and sticking with it.So many give up on a horse because it runs one stinker and when it wins their frustration shows and their confidence diminishes,they fall by the wayside ultimately.Horseracing is not a sport for the Fainthearted and dissapointment lurks around every corner,Lady Luck is out there but she’s a typical female and will only accomodate you on her terms,I’ll take those terms as every little helps.Bad Luck is like the Grim reaper,he scythes his way through a ‘Lucky 31’ and makes you feel sick at times,he’s at his worst Ante-Post but its all part of the game.Few have stood the test of time,fewer with the above attributes,One is still here fighting like a Mcgregor,you guessed…………The Ginger One!
Confidence is good Gord. But if punters have the right blend of confidence and caution… Then they can make
far more
than with confidence alone. Confidence allows a punter to bet when necessary, whenever he/she sees a good price and to win decent money. Caution allows a punter to cut out the poor bets and not to risk losing too much of their hard earnt cash.
Over confidence does not allow for enough caution. With many punters they have a particularly good bet/day/year… Think they know it all – and lose their hard earnt profit. Yes, by all means increase stakes, but not to such an extent to risk losing it all.
Every punter will go through a losing run at some point and the chance of one occurring is usually under-estimated by even the best punters.
Value Is EverythingFWIW I can see both sides of the argument.
I’m a poker man and you can’t hope to have any run of success in that game unless you understand probability.
The problem with that is the unknown variables, i.e. you can only make educated guesses at what hole cards other people have / had in order to help you understand what chances you have in hitting one of your outs. But other than that there is a math involved that is required so you can compare to the cost to call etc. (forget the implied odds thereafter for now).
But to translate that to horse racing where there is no exact number that can be placed on a horse’s chance is PURELY subjective.
If people like Ginge feel that they can translate form & information well enough to give them an edge over the enemy’s odds compilers then good on them.
That subjectivity is multiplied by at least 300% however when trying to pick a winner months in advance as again the percentage chance of a horse making it to the race in rude health and in the case of Cheltenham, being the trainer/owner’s race of choice is largely unquantifiable.
BUT the satisifcation of getting it right far outweighs the cold and methodical approach of somebody like Gingers – successful as it may be.
Put it this way, were I to follow a tipster for fun I’d choose TAPK. Were my life to depend on the outcome I’d choose Ginge.
Both perfectly acceptable approaches however and what is the most refreshing is that there are plans and they are stuck to. Not everybody can say the same.
Lee
FWIW I can see both sides of the argument.
But to translate that to horse racing where there is no exact number that can be placed on a horse’s chance is PURELY subjective.
If people like Ginge feel that they can translate form & information well enough to give them an edge over the enemy’s odds compilers then good on them.
That subjectivity is multiplied by at least 300% however when trying to pick a winner months in advance as again the percentage chance of a horse making it to the race in rude health and in the case of Cheltenham, being the trainer/owner’s race of choice is largely unquantifiable.
One thing I need to get straight here. Drone seemed to imply I make 100% books for all races I have a bet in. It’s nowhere near that. Certainly never in an ante-post race. But knowing what percentage chance each price needs to be a "good bet" helps enormously.
Only a short look at just runners of the highest standard and those likely to reach the grade – is necessary in non-handicaps. Purely to establish whether the race is likely to be of above, equal to or below the average renewal’s standard. And this is sometimes known without needing to look anything up. ANY runner can then be judged solely on how likely it is to reach that
average
winner’s standard. So in many ways it is EASIER to identify value in the ante-post market than it is day of race.
The chance of a horse making the race needs to be allowed for in the price a punter is willing to take. This is not equal in every horse. Obviously those very sound horses who are rarely known to be injured – are far more likely to make the race than one prone to injury. Granted Lee, Imperial commander’s ante-post chance particularly difficult. Good luck to anyone backing Peddler’s Cross ante-post. But we can stay clear of these.
I would NOT say the target of a trainer/owner is "largely unquantifiable", though it did cost me last year. Unless a trainer has an alternative runner or he’s running scared of a Top racehorse – the horse usually ends up where it has the best chance. Even when "running scared", this can also help a punter by identifying a runner likely to take part. Occasionally the price makes it worth going against percieved targets, if there’s a logical reason for a change of plan.
Other things to bear in mind are: What is the likely going at that time of year and how much watering is likely to be done? How the horse’s stamina will be effected by the likely ground? And does the price make it worth taking a chance.
Both myself and TAPK backed At Fisher’s Cross @ 7/1 for the Albert Bartlett after Saturdays performance. His form is on soft ground, but price makes it worth the risk because his form is so good. He’s also engaged in the Neptune, but unless it comes up very soft is unlikely to be fast enough. He’s in the Pertemps over 3m too, but was likely to go up considerably in the handicap for Saturday.
However, the only thing ante-post punters really need to take in to consideration is: What the probability (ie is the price available worth taking) is of achieving the race winning standard given likely conditions.
BUT the satisifcation of getting it right far outweighs the cold and methodical approach of somebody like Gingers – successful as it may be.
at the moment
) a far greater "satisfaction" on my part. Because how does anyone get great "satisfaction" with one win, when they know they’re so much in deficit for the year? One win in that situation would not make me feel much better.
Take it from me Lee, when the profit keeps going up it gets more and more satisfying.
Put it this way, were I to follow a tipster for fun I’d choose TAPK. Were my life to depend on the outcome I’d choose Ginge.
Lee
You think the downs of more than -£10,000 since last May, with very few winners is "fun" Lee? I think if you’d actually followed TAPK, you’d be thinking completely differently. In racing there is no guarantee of a turn around, no matter how much "confidence" the tipster has.
Value Is EverythingEnd of the day it is all pocket talk, whether its crowing or whining. Ginge has his system and good luck to him. I could extract no pleasure from that kind of hedging, though I will back multiple selections in exotic bets.
There is a large element of luck, which gambling marines say doesn’t exist. But of luck was not a factor and it was all down to analysis and probabilities then ginge and other stars on here would win the Scoop6 and be living in castles.
Truth is that it’s a very hard game aggravated by many factors.
My point about it is that the product that is offered by the bookmakers is not really as it seems.though I will back multiple selections in exotic bets.
But I thought you threw the money down the drain……
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