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Quote: from sberry on 11:26 am on April 13, 2007[br]the winner this year will be Simon of course although Bewleys Berry looks worth an each-way saver
LOL – reverse forecast required methinks!
The 2 I’ve backed (that are still alive!) are Slim Pickings and Hedgehunter. The latter remains one of the best handicapped horses in the race, racing from roughly the same mark he did last year. He’s obviously vulnerable to anything that is lurking lower down in the weights that has upwards on 10 lb in hand but we know for sure he acts well on the ground and over the course. I’ll also be looking to side with him in mumerous match bets.
I’m very surprised at the lack of pundit interest in Point Barrow. He ticks all the boxes. The only concern I can see is that he doesn’t look to be outstripping the handicapper the way Numbersixvalverde was.
He’s my big bet; with last year’s winner (assuming the ground stays ‘Good’) and Longshanks both for a place. Monkerhostin just falls short of having my money on.
My shortlist is now down to around 12.
I’ve not gotten elbow deep in the form, but two are standing out to me at the moment: Point Barrow and Dun Doire.
I’m wondering if our Irish members have thoughts on these horses (particularly the latter)?
Steve
Got my ante-post bet on Point Barrow.
Might have a saver on Dun Doire on the day, despite worries over the ground he’s drifting to a more attractive price.
It there was cut in the ground I’d be massive on the chances of last years winner.
Finally, will have a sneaky e.w bet on Homer Wells. Mullins didn’t miss the Irish National for nothing and 33/1 looks value.
With the form of his Cheltenham run boosted today by Monets Garden and Taranis in the Melling Chase, Billyvoddan looks the real class act and the outstanding remaining ‘value’ in the National at 20/1.
Of course, there are the doubts about this being his first run over the fences and the blinkers, which some construe as a negative for the big race. However, in top form, lightly-raced this season and young enough to be still improving, unexposed at the trip and with enough encouragement on Ascot run and breeding that he will stay. The one horse who might run away with it.
I´ve already nailed my colours to the Point Barrow mast-I still think hes the one to beat. I will also back last year´s winner each way as I think he´ll be hard to kick out of the first 5, and could even win again. My negative of those at the head of the market would be Joe´s Edge, for two reasons: I don´t like previous failures in the race- you can make excuses for them but it may just be that they didn´t enjoy the place. Secondly horses that run big races at Cheltenham have a poor record here- I remember getting sucked into Star Traveller a few years ago: after that I swore off anything that had a hard race at the Festival. I can see him being the best backed horse tomorrow, and will be looking to lay him if he gets much shorter.<br>One note of caution for you Nore: blinkers are really a negative here- I know Earth Summit won, but I heard an excellent explanation somewhere that the fact that the race that year was run in the muck may have had a significant bearing on that result- it is far easier for a horse to go around the outside hardly seeing another than to be half blinded amongst a tightly packed field on good ground.
(Edited by carvillshill at 3:25 am on April 14, 2007)
Nore
Im with you there. Eurotrek is my first choice but billyvoddan has been backed too. Would suspect that Daly would not be risking him at this stage unless he had a good chance too
The first three will be L’Ami, Idle Talk and McKelvey, not necessarily in that order.
Point Barrow is the one for me. Seems to have followed the traditional Irish route that has resulted in them farming the race in recent years.
Of those at fancier prices I think Liberthine will potentially run a big race.
Point Barrow isn’t much of a price now I was going to back that but have gone for a saver on Simon instead. Of course they will all have to go so;e to beat the classy stayer Eurotrek :)
I had the winner on my shortlist but put him down as needing soft or heavy.
Well done to those that backed it.
Steve
According to recent trends the now sanitised race was meant to be about those fancied in the betting and "better" horses towards the top of the h’cap.<br>In the event outsiders were to the fore. Well done to the winner whose SP reflected small time connections and the feeling that Nicholls had had the best of it.<br>Doubtless I’ll be accused of being too soft and apologists will say they had no choice, but I felt that the close finish was marred by the whip antics of the riders of the winner and third. The stewards felt likewise and 4 and 3 day bans respectively are well merited. Why can’t they even hit horses in the correct place?
We would all use the whip as much,if not more,if we were a jockey with a chance of winning the GN.The bans the jockeys got will not hurt them much-of that i’m glad.The fact that they got banned at all is sad,imo.
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